The Treasury curve shifted slightly higher and steeper overnight after news that the US and China were willing to negotiate a trade deal which assuaged the market’s fears of global trade war. The news sparked a risk on trade pushing equity markets higher, European markets were up about 2% while S&P futures moved 0.5% higher.
This morning’s release of initial jobless claims came in higher than the survey number at 242,000 vs 225,000; and was a 24,000 increase from the prior week. The uptick moved the 4-week moving average to its highest level since the beginning of February.
Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 04/02 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 55.7 | 55.6 | 55.7 | — |
| 04/02 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.40% | 0.10% | 0.00% | — |
| 04/02 | ISM Manufacturing | 59.6 | 59.3 | 60.8 | — |
| 04/02 | ISM Employment | — | 57.3 | 59.7 | — |
| 04/02 | ISM Prices Paid | 72.5 | 78.1 | 74.2 | — |
| 04/02 | ISM New Orders | — | 61.9 | 64.2 | — |
| 04/03 | Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales | 13.10m | 13.42m | 12.94m | — |
| 04/03 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 16.90m | 17.40m | 16.96m | — |
| 04/04 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -3.30% | 4.80% | — |
| 04/04 | ADP Employment Change | 210k | 241k | 235k | 246k |
| 04/04 | Markit US Services PMI | 54.2 | 54 | 54.1 | — |
| 04/04 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 54.2 | 54.3 | — |
| 04/04 | ISM Non-Manf. Composite | 59 | 58.8 | 59.5 | — |
| 04/04 | Factory Orders | 1.70% | 1.20% | -1.40% | -1.30% |
| 04/04 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | 0.10% | 0.40% | — |
| 04/04 | Durable Goods Orders | — | 3.00% | 3.10% | — |
| 04/04 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | 1.00% | 1.20% | — |
| 04/04 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | 1.40% | 1.80% | — |
| 04/04 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | 1.40% | 1.40% | — |
| 04/05 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | 39.40% | -4.30% | — |
| 04/05 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | 242k | 215k | 218k |
| 04/05 | Continuing Claims | 1843k | 1808k | 1871k | 1872k |
| 04/05 | Trade Balance | -$56.8b | -$57.6b | -$56.6b | -$56.7b |
| 04/05 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 56.8 | — |
| 04/06 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 185k | — | 313k | — |
| 04/06 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | — | — |
| 04/06 | Change in Private Payrolls | 190k | — | 287k | — |
| 04/06 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 22k | — | 31k | — |
| 04/06 | Unemployment Rate | 4.00% | — | 4.10% | — |
| 04/06 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 8.20% | — |
| 04/06 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 04/06 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 2.70% | — | 2.60% | — |
| 04/06 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.5 | — | 34.5 | — |
| 04/06 | Labor Force Participation Rate | — | — | 63.00% | — |
| 04/06 | Consumer Credit | $15.500b | — | $13.906b | — |