The Treasury curve shifted slightly higher and steeper overnight after news that the US and China were willing to negotiate a trade deal which assuaged the market’s fears of global trade war. The news sparked a risk on trade pushing equity markets higher, European markets were up about 2% while S&P futures moved 0.5% higher.

This morning’s release of initial jobless claims came in higher than the survey number at 242,000 vs 225,000; and was a 24,000 increase from the prior week. The uptick moved the 4-week moving average to its highest level since the beginning of February.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
04/02Markit US Manufacturing PMI55.755.655.7
04/02Construction Spending MoM0.40%0.10%0.00%
04/02ISM Manufacturing59.659.360.8
04/02ISM Employment57.359.7
04/02ISM Prices Paid72.578.174.2
04/02ISM New Orders61.964.2
04/03Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales13.10m13.42m12.94m
04/03Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.90m17.40m16.96m
04/04MBA Mortgage Applications-3.30%4.80%
04/04ADP Employment Change210k241k235k246k
04/04Markit US Services PMI54.25454.1
04/04Markit US Composite PMI54.254.3
04/04ISM Non-Manf. Composite5958.859.5
04/04Factory Orders1.70%1.20%-1.40%-1.30%
04/04Factory Orders Ex Trans0.10%0.40%
04/04Durable Goods Orders3.00%3.10%
04/04Durables Ex Transportation1.00%1.20%
04/04Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.40%1.80%
04/04Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air1.40%1.40%
04/05Challenger Job Cuts YoY39.40%-4.30%
04/05Initial Jobless Claims225k242k215k218k
04/05Continuing Claims1843k1808k1871k1872k
04/05Trade Balance-$56.8b-$57.6b-$56.6b-$56.7b
04/05Bloomberg Consumer Comfort56.8
04/06Change in Nonfarm Payrolls185k313k
04/06Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
04/06Change in Private Payrolls190k287k
04/06Change in Manufact. Payrolls22k31k
04/06Unemployment Rate4.00%4.10%
04/06Underemployment Rate8.20%
04/06Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.10%
04/06Average Hourly Earnings YoY2.70%2.60%
04/06Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.5
04/06Labor Force Participation Rate63.00%
04/06Consumer Credit$15.500b$13.906b