Treasury prices are higher across the curve in the immediate response to the March jobs report, and S&P 500 futures are currently down 19 points. Equities had a modest negative reaction to new trade threats, with President Trump threatening to retaliate to China’s retaliatory tariffs with additional tariffs (yes, it’s a mouthful). At this pace, both countries are going to run out of imports to threaten tariffs against in the near future. Despite the headline noise, overnight trading volumes were relatively light ahead of today’s jobs report and speech from Fed Chair Powell.

Nonfarm payrolls added 103,000 jobs in March versus expectations of 185,000 jobs added, and the prior two months were revised down by a total of 50,000 jobs (February still 326,000). The headline unemployment rate held unchanged at 4.1% (4% expected) amid declines in both household employment (-37,000) and the official labor force (-158,000). On a positive note, the U-6 underemployment rate fell 20 bps to 8%, matching the post-crisis low set last October. A greater area of focus for the markets has been the wage growth data. Average hourly earnings were right in line with expectations in March on both a month/month (0.3%) and year/year (2.7%) basis, and the average workweek held steady at 34.5 hours. The wage figures are solid, but not enough to fuel an increase in market inflation expectations.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEvent SurveyActualPrior
04/02/2018Markit US Manufacturing PMIMar F55.755.655.7
04/02/2018Construction Spending MoMFeb0.40%0.10%0.00%
04/02/2018ISM ManufacturingMar59.659.360.8
04/02/2018ISM EmploymentMar57.359.7
04/02/2018ISM Prices PaidMar72.578.174.2
04/02/2018ISM New OrdersMar61.964.2
04/03/2018Wards Domestic Vehicle SalesMar13.10m13.42m12.94m
04/03/2018Wards Total Vehicle SalesMar16.90m17.40m16.96m
04/04/2018MBA Mortgage Applications30-Mar-3.30%4.80%
04/04/2018ADP Employment ChangeMar210k241k235k
04/04/2018Markit US Services PMIMar F54.25454.1
04/04/2018Markit US Composite PMIMar F54.254.3
04/04/2018ISM Non-Manf. CompositeMar5958.859.5
04/04/2018Factory OrdersFeb1.70%1.20%-1.40%
04/04/2018Factory Orders Ex TransFeb0.10%0.40%
04/04/2018Durable Goods OrdersFeb F3.00%3.10%
04/04/2018Durables Ex TransportationFeb F1.00%1.20%
04/04/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex AirFeb F1.40%1.80%
04/04/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex AirFeb F1.40%1.40%
04/05/2018Challenger Job Cuts YoYMar39.40%-4.30%
04/05/2018Initial Jobless Claims31-Mar225k242k215k
04/05/2018Continuing Claims24-Mar1843k1808k1871k
04/05/2018Trade BalanceFeb-$56.8b-$57.6b-$56.6b
04/05/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort1-Apr57.256.8
04/06/2018Change in Nonfarm PayrollsMar185k103k313k
04/06/2018Two-Month Payroll Net RevisionMar-50k
04/06/2018Change in Private PayrollsMar188k102k287k
04/06/2018Change in Manufact. PayrollsMar22k22k31k
04/06/2018Unemployment RateMar4.00%4.10%4.10%
04/06/2018Underemployment RateMar8.00%8.20%
04/06/2018Average Hourly Earnings MoMMar0.30%0.30%0.10%
04/06/2018Average Hourly Earnings YoYMar2.70%2.70%2.60%
04/06/2018Average Weekly Hours All EmployeesMar34.534.534.5
04/06/2018Labor Force Participation RateMar62.90%63.00%
04/06/2018Consumer CreditFeb$15.500b$13.906b
04/10/2018NFIB Small Business OptimismMar107107.6
04/10/2018PPI Final Demand MoMMar0.10%0.20%
04/10/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy MoMMar0.20%0.20%
04/10/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoMMar0.20%0.40%
04/10/2018PPI Final Demand YoYMar2.90%2.80%
04/10/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy YoYMar2.60%2.50%
04/10/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoYMar2.70%
04/10/2018Wholesale Trade Sales MoMFeb-1.10%
04/10/2018Wholesale Inventories MoMFeb F0.70%1.10%
04/11/2018MBA Mortgage Applications6-Apr-3.30%
04/11/2018CPI MoMMar0.00%0.20%
04/11/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy MoMMar0.20%0.20%
04/11/2018CPI YoYMar2.30%2.20%
04/11/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy YoYMar2.10%1.80%
04/11/2018CPI Index NSAMar249.579248.991
04/11/2018CPI Core Index SAMar256.2255.751
04/11/2018Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoYMar0.60%
04/11/2018Real Avg Hourly Earning YoYMar0.40%
04/11/2018Monthly Budget StatementMar-$215.2b
04/11/2018FOMC Meeting Minutes21-Mar
04/12/2018Import Price Index MoMMar0.10%0.40%
04/12/2018Initial Jobless Claims7-Apr230k242k
04/12/2018Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoMMar0.50%
04/12/2018Import Price Index YoYMar3.80%3.50%
04/12/2018Continuing Claims31-Mar1808k
04/12/2018Export Price Index MoMMar0.20%
04/12/2018Export Price Index YoYMar3.30%
04/12/2018Bloomberg April United States Economic Survey
04/12/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort8-Apr57.2
04/13/2018JOLTS Job OpeningsFeb6312
04/13/2018U. of Mich. SentimentApr P101101.4
04/13/2018U. of Mich. Current ConditionsApr P121.2
04/13/2018U. of Mich. ExpectationsApr P88.8
04/13/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr InflationApr P2.80%
04/13/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr InflationApr P2.50%