April 7, 2021 Headlines

US Treasury prices were unchanged overnight as markets remained in a holding pattern ahead of the FOMC minutes release. In the March 17th meeting, revisions to the dot plot revealed a marginally more hawkish committee with three members projecting front-end rates off the lower bound to end 2022. Recent economic data has exceeded estimates and the central bank has already increased real GDP growth estimates to 6.5% this year compared to the December’s estimate of 4.2%. However, Fed Chair Powell has specified the bank will focus on “actual progress” towards both employment and inflation goals rather than “forecast progress” before tapering. The European Central Bank has already mentioned the possibility of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) could be tapered in the third quarter.

Chris Eckhoff
Senior Associate, Investment Management Group

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
04/05/21 Markit US Services PMI 60.2 60.4 60 —
04/05/21 Markit US Composite PMI — 59.7 59.1 —
04/05/21 ISM Services Index 59 63.7 55.3 —
04/05/21 Factory Orders -0.50% -0.80% 2.60% 2.70%
04/05/21 Factory Orders Ex Trans -1.10% -0.60% 1.70% 1.80%
04/05/21 Durable Goods Orders -1.10% -1.20% -1.10% —
04/05/21 Durables Ex Transportation -0.90% -0.90% -0.90% —
04/05/21 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air -0.80% -0.90% -0.80% —
04/05/21 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air — -1.10% -1.00% —
04/06/21 JOLTS Job Openings 6900 7367 6917 7099
04/07/21 MBA Mortgage Applications — -5.10% -2.20% —
04/07/21 Trade Balance -$70.5b -$71.1b -$68.2b -$67.8b
04/07/21 FOMC Meeting Minutes — — — —
04/07/21 Consumer Credit $2.800b — -$1.315b —
04/08/21 Initial Jobless Claims 680k — 719k —
04/08/21 Continuing Claims 3638k — 3794k —
04/08/21 Langer Consumer Comfort — — 50 —
04/09/21 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.50% — 0.50% —
04/09/21 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% — 0.20% —
04/09/21 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% — 0.20% —
04/09/21 PPI Final Demand YoY 3.80% — 2.80% —
04/09/21 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.70% — 2.50% —
04/09/21 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 2.70% — 2.20% —
04/09/21 Bloomberg April United States Economic Survey
04/09/21 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.50% — 0.50% —
04/09/21 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM — — 4.90% —

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Subscribe
ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content. Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First. Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.