April 7, 2021 Headlines

US Treasury prices were unchanged overnight as markets remained in a holding pattern ahead of the FOMC minutes release. In the March 17th meeting, revisions to the dot plot revealed a marginally more hawkish committee with three members projecting front-end rates off the lower bound to end 2022. Recent economic data has exceeded estimates and the central bank has already increased real GDP growth estimates to 6.5% this year compared to the December’s estimate of 4.2%. However, Fed Chair Powell has specified the bank will focus on “actual progress” towards both employment and inflation goals rather than “forecast progress” before tapering. The European Central Bank has already mentioned the possibility of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) could be tapered in the third quarter.

Chris Eckhoff
Senior Associate, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
04/05/21Markit US Services PMI60.260.460
04/05/21Markit US Composite PMI59.759.1
04/05/21ISM Services Index5963.755.3
04/05/21Factory Orders-0.50%-0.80%2.60%2.70%
04/05/21Factory Orders Ex Trans-1.10%-0.60%1.70%1.80%
04/05/21Durable Goods Orders-1.10%-1.20%-1.10%
04/05/21Durables Ex Transportation-0.90%-0.90%-0.90%
04/05/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.80%-0.90%-0.80%
04/05/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-1.10%-1.00%
04/06/21JOLTS Job Openings6900736769177099
04/07/21MBA Mortgage Applications-5.10%-2.20%
04/07/21Trade Balance-$70.5b-$71.1b-$68.2b-$67.8b
04/07/21FOMC Meeting Minutes
04/07/21Consumer Credit$2.800b-$1.315b
04/08/21Initial Jobless Claims680k719k
04/08/21Continuing Claims3638k3794k
04/08/21Langer Consumer Comfort50
04/09/21PPI Final Demand MoM0.50%0.50%
04/09/21PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%
04/09/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.20%
04/09/21PPI Final Demand YoY3.80%2.80%
04/09/21PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.70%2.50%
04/09/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.70%2.20%
04/09/21Bloomberg April United States Economic Survey
04/09/21Wholesale Inventories MoM0.50%0.50%
04/09/21Wholesale Trade Sales MoM4.90%

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