April 7, 2021 Headlines

US Treasury prices were unchanged overnight as markets remained in a holding pattern ahead of the FOMC minutes release. In the March 17th meeting, revisions to the dot plot revealed a marginally more hawkish committee with three members projecting front-end rates off the lower bound to end 2022. Recent economic data has exceeded estimates and the central bank has already increased real GDP growth estimates to 6.5% this year compared to the December’s estimate of 4.2%. However, Fed Chair Powell has specified the bank will focus on “actual progress” towards both employment and inflation goals rather than “forecast progress” before tapering. The European Central Bank has already mentioned the possibility of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) could be tapered in the third quarter.

Chris Eckhoff
Senior Associate, Investment Management Group

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
04/05/21 Markit US Services PMI 60.2 60.4 60
04/05/21 Markit US Composite PMI 59.7 59.1
04/05/21 ISM Services Index 59 63.7 55.3
04/05/21 Factory Orders -0.50% -0.80% 2.60% 2.70%
04/05/21 Factory Orders Ex Trans -1.10% -0.60% 1.70% 1.80%
04/05/21 Durable Goods Orders -1.10% -1.20% -1.10%
04/05/21 Durables Ex Transportation -0.90% -0.90% -0.90%
04/05/21 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air -0.80% -0.90% -0.80%
04/05/21 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air -1.10% -1.00%
04/06/21 JOLTS Job Openings 6900 7367 6917 7099
04/07/21 MBA Mortgage Applications -5.10% -2.20%
04/07/21 Trade Balance -$70.5b -$71.1b -$68.2b -$67.8b
04/07/21 FOMC Meeting Minutes
04/07/21 Consumer Credit $2.800b -$1.315b
04/08/21 Initial Jobless Claims 680k 719k
04/08/21 Continuing Claims 3638k 3794k
04/08/21 Langer Consumer Comfort 50
04/09/21 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.50% 0.50%
04/09/21 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.20%
04/09/21 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% 0.20%
04/09/21 PPI Final Demand YoY 3.80% 2.80%
04/09/21 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.70% 2.50%
04/09/21 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 2.70% 2.20%
04/09/21 Bloomberg April United States Economic Survey
04/09/21 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.50% 0.50%
04/09/21 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 4.90%

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