Treasury yields are higher and the curve steeper for a second consecutive day as the market reacts to more hawkish words from Fed leaders. Fed Governor Lael Brainard, considered one of the more dovish leaders at the central bank, spoke yesterday for the first time since February 18 and opened by quoting Paul Volker, the former Fed chair who famously fought high inflation in the 1980s with ultra-aggressive rate hikes. Brainard acknowledged that “inflation is much too high” and that the Fed plans to shrink its balance sheet “rapidly” as soon as the May meeting. The balance sheet comment has weighed on long-end rates, which was likely the intent with all the recent focus on curve inversion. The S&P 500 fell 1.3% yesterday, and futures are down another 94 bps an hour before the open.
The MBA mortgage applications index fell 6.3% last week, the fourth consecutive weekly decline and once again driven largely by a decline in refinance applications. The refi index fell 8.9% for the weekend ended April 1 and is now down 39.2% since March 11. The average 30-year conventional contract rate rose 10 bps to 4.9% according to the MBA survey and is up 81 bps since March 4 (+157 bps YTD).
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 04/04/22 | Factory Orders | -0.60% | -0.50% | 1.40% | 1.50% |
| 04/04/22 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | 0.30% | 0.40% | 1.00% | 1.20% |
| 04/04/22 | Durable Goods Orders | -2.20% | -2.10% | -2.20% | — |
| 04/04/22 | Durables Ex Transportation | -0.60% | -0.60% | -0.60% | — |
| 04/04/22 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | -0.20% | -0.30% | — |
| 04/04/22 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | 0.30% | 0.50% | — |
| 04/05/22 | Trade Balance | -$88.5b | -$89.2b | -$89.7b | -$89.2b |
| 04/05/22 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 58.9 | 58 | 58.9 | — |
| 04/05/22 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 58.5 | 57.7 | 58.5 | — |
| 04/05/22 | ISM Services Index | 58.5 | 58.3 | 56.5 | — |
| 04/06/22 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -6.30% | -6.80% | — |
| 04/06/22 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
| 04/07/22 | Revisions: Jobless Claims | ||||
| 04/07/22 | Initial Jobless Claims | 200k | 166k | 202k | 171k |
| 04/07/22 | Continuing Claims | 1302k | 1523k | 1307k | 1506k |
| 04/07/22 | Consumer Credit | $18.100b | — | $6.838b | — |
| 04/08/22 | Bloomberg April United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 04/08/22 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 2.10% | — | 2.10% | — |
| 04/08/22 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.80% | — | 4.00% | — |
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