April 8, 2021 Headlines

Yesterday’s dovish FOMC minutes are contributing to lower and flatter Treasury yields this morning following a relatively quiet overnight session. The ECB added to the dovish monetary tone at their monthly policy meeting this morning, saying “the recent tightening of financing conditions was generally seen as premature.” ECB President Lagarde also called for more fiscal support from the region’s governments. The minutes of the March 17 FOMC meeting revealed no hints of less-dovish opinions from the participants. Their economic outlook was tepid, focusing heavily on the larger number of jobs still lost since the beginning of the pandemic, and there was no discussion of tapering QE purchases. There was a discussion regarding downward pressure on money market rates and a potential increase in the IOER rate, suggesting that continued supply and demand imbalances may require “adjustments to administered rates at upcoming meetings or even between meetings.”

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
04/05/21Markit US Services PMI60.260.460
04/05/21Markit US Composite PMI59.759.1
04/05/21ISM Services Index5963.755.3
04/05/21Factory Orders-0.50%-0.80%2.60%2.70%
04/05/21Factory Orders Ex Trans-1.10%-0.60%1.70%1.80%
04/05/21Durable Goods Orders-1.10%-1.20%-1.10%
04/05/21Durables Ex Transportation-0.90%-0.90%-0.90%
04/05/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.80%-0.90%-0.80%
04/05/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-1.10%-1.00%
04/06/21JOLTS Job Openings6900736769177099
04/07/21MBA Mortgage Applications-5.10%-2.20%
04/07/21Trade Balance-$70.5b-$71.1b-$68.2b-$67.8b
04/07/21FOMC Meeting Minutes
04/07/21Consumer Credit$2.800b$27.578b-$1.315b$0.094b
04/08/21Initial Jobless Claims680k744k719k728k
04/08/21Continuing Claims3638k3734k3794k3750k
04/08/21Langer Consumer Comfort50
04/09/21PPI Final Demand MoM0.50%0.50%
04/09/21PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%
04/09/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.20%
04/09/21PPI Final Demand YoY3.80%2.80%
04/09/21PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.70%2.50%
04/09/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.70%2.20%
04/09/21Bloomberg April United States Economic Survey
04/09/21Wholesale Inventories MoM0.50%0.50%
04/09/21Wholesale Trade Sales MoM4.90%

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