April 8, 2021 Headlines

Yesterday’s dovish FOMC minutes are contributing to lower and flatter Treasury yields this morning following a relatively quiet overnight session. The ECB added to the dovish monetary tone at their monthly policy meeting this morning, saying “the recent tightening of financing conditions was generally seen as premature.” ECB President Lagarde also called for more fiscal support from the region’s governments. The minutes of the March 17 FOMC meeting revealed no hints of less-dovish opinions from the participants. Their economic outlook was tepid, focusing heavily on the larger number of jobs still lost since the beginning of the pandemic, and there was no discussion of tapering QE purchases. There was a discussion regarding downward pressure on money market rates and a potential increase in the IOER rate, suggesting that continued supply and demand imbalances may require “adjustments to administered rates at upcoming meetings or even between meetings.”

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
04/05/21 Markit US Services PMI 60.2 60.4 60
04/05/21 Markit US Composite PMI 59.7 59.1
04/05/21 ISM Services Index 59 63.7 55.3
04/05/21 Factory Orders -0.50% -0.80% 2.60% 2.70%
04/05/21 Factory Orders Ex Trans -1.10% -0.60% 1.70% 1.80%
04/05/21 Durable Goods Orders -1.10% -1.20% -1.10%
04/05/21 Durables Ex Transportation -0.90% -0.90% -0.90%
04/05/21 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air -0.80% -0.90% -0.80%
04/05/21 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air -1.10% -1.00%
04/06/21 JOLTS Job Openings 6900 7367 6917 7099
04/07/21 MBA Mortgage Applications -5.10% -2.20%
04/07/21 Trade Balance -$70.5b -$71.1b -$68.2b -$67.8b
04/07/21 FOMC Meeting Minutes
04/07/21 Consumer Credit $2.800b $27.578b -$1.315b $0.094b
04/08/21 Initial Jobless Claims 680k 744k 719k 728k
04/08/21 Continuing Claims 3638k 3734k 3794k 3750k
04/08/21 Langer Consumer Comfort 50
04/09/21 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.50% 0.50%
04/09/21 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.20%
04/09/21 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% 0.20%
04/09/21 PPI Final Demand YoY 3.80% 2.80%
04/09/21 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.70% 2.50%
04/09/21 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 2.70% 2.20%
04/09/21 Bloomberg April United States Economic Survey
04/09/21 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.50% 0.50%
04/09/21 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 4.90%

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