Treasury prices are grinding higher (and curve flatter), and equity futures are pointing to a slightly lower open for U.S. stocks. There weren’t any major headlines overnight, although a trade skirmish between the U.S. and Europe is garnering some focus this morning. The White House moved yesterday toward imposing $11 billion of tariffs on imports from the European Union to counter subsidies provided to European aircraft manufacturer Airbus. The U.S. has been in litigation over this issue at the World Trade Organization since 2004, and with no resolution over that timeframe, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said, “the time has come for action.”

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was lower than expected in March (101.8 vs. 102.0 expected) and essentially unchanged versus the prior month. Labor market indicators within the survey remained positive, but survey participants generally felt that current inventory stocks are too high (i.e., less likely to invest in building inventories in the near term). Fed Governors Quarles and Clarida will be speaking at separate events today. Quarles will discuss financial rules/regulations, while Clarida will review the monetary policy framework as part of a Fed Listens event.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

 

Date Time Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
4/8/2019 Factory Orders -0.50% -0.50% 0.10% 0.00%
4/8/2019 Factory Orders Ex Trans 0.30% -0.20% -0.10%
4/8/2019 Durable Goods Orders -1.60% -1.60% -1.60%
4/8/2019 Durables Ex Transportation 0.10% -0.10% 0.10%
4/8/2019 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air -0.10% -0.10%
4/8/2019 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air -0.10% 0.00%
4/9/2019 NFIB Small Business Optimism 102 101.8 101.7
4/9/2019 JOLTS Job Openings 7550 7581
4/10/2019 MBA Mortgage Applications 18.60%
4/10/2019 CPI MoM 0.40% 0.20%
4/10/2019 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.10%
4/10/2019 CPI YoY 1.80% 1.50%
4/10/2019 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.10% 2.10%
4/10/2019 CPI Core Index SA 261.465 260.989
4/10/2019 CPI Index NSA 254.193 252.776
4/10/2019 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 1.90%
4/10/2019 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 1.60%
4/10/2019 FOMC Meeting Minutes
4/10/2019 Monthly Budget Statement -$181.0b -$234.0b
4/11/2019 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.30% 0.10%
4/11/2019 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.10%
4/11/2019 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% 0.10%
4/11/2019 PPI Final Demand YoY 1.90% 1.90%
4/11/2019 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.40% 2.50%
4/11/2019 Initial Jobless Claims 210k 202k
4/11/2019 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 2.30%
4/11/2019 Continuing Claims 1735k 1717k
4/11/2019 Bloomberg April United States Economic Survey
4/11/2019 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 58.9
4/12/2019 Import Price Index MoM 0.40% 0.60%
4/12/2019 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM -0.10% 0.10%
4/12/2019 Import Price Index YoY -0.70% -1.30%
4/12/2019 Export Price Index MoM 0.20% 0.60%
4/12/2019 Export Price Index YoY 0.30%
4/12/2019 U. of Mich. Sentiment 98.1 98.4
4/12/2019 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 113.3
4/12/2019 U. of Mich. Expectations 88.8
4/12/2019 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.50%
4/12/2019 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.50%