Treasury prices are grinding higher (and curve flatter), and equity futures are pointing to a slightly lower open for U.S. stocks. There weren’t any major headlines overnight, although a trade skirmish between the U.S. and Europe is garnering some focus this morning. The White House moved yesterday toward imposing $11 billion of tariffs on imports from the European Union to counter subsidies provided to European aircraft manufacturer Airbus. The U.S. has been in litigation over this issue at the World Trade Organization since 2004, and with no resolution over that timeframe, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said, “the time has come for action.”

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was lower than expected in March (101.8 vs. 102.0 expected) and essentially unchanged versus the prior month. Labor market indicators within the survey remained positive, but survey participants generally felt that current inventory stocks are too high (i.e., less likely to invest in building inventories in the near term). Fed Governors Quarles and Clarida will be speaking at separate events today. Quarles will discuss financial rules/regulations, while Clarida will review the monetary policy framework as part of a Fed Listens event.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group


Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
4/8/2019Factory Orders-0.50%-0.50%0.10%0.00%
4/8/2019Factory Orders Ex Trans0.30%-0.20%-0.10%
4/8/2019Durable Goods Orders-1.60%-1.60%-1.60%
4/8/2019Durables Ex Transportation0.10%-0.10%0.10%
4/8/2019Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.10%-0.10%
4/8/2019Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.10%0.00%
4/9/2019NFIB Small Business Optimism102101.8101.7
4/9/2019JOLTS Job Openings75507581
4/10/2019MBA Mortgage Applications18.60%
4/10/2019CPI MoM0.40%0.20%
4/10/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%
4/10/2019CPI YoY1.80%1.50%
4/10/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.10%2.10%
4/10/2019CPI Core Index SA261.465260.989
4/10/2019CPI Index NSA254.193252.776
4/10/2019Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY1.90%
4/10/2019Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY1.60%
4/10/2019FOMC Meeting Minutes
4/10/2019Monthly Budget Statement-$181.0b-$234.0b
4/11/2019PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%0.10%
4/11/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%
4/11/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.10%
4/11/2019PPI Final Demand YoY1.90%1.90%
4/11/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.40%2.50%
4/11/2019Initial Jobless Claims210k202k
4/11/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.30%
4/11/2019Continuing Claims1735k1717k
4/11/2019Bloomberg April United States Economic Survey
4/11/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort58.9
4/12/2019Import Price Index MoM0.40%0.60%
4/12/2019Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.10%0.10%
4/12/2019Import Price Index YoY-0.70%-1.30%
4/12/2019Export Price Index MoM0.20%0.60%
4/12/2019Export Price Index YoY0.30%
4/12/2019U. of Mich. Sentiment98.198.4
4/12/2019U. of Mich. Current Conditions113.3
4/12/2019U. of Mich. Expectations88.8
4/12/2019U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.50%
4/12/2019U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%