Treasury prices are grinding higher (and curve flatter), and equity futures are pointing to a slightly lower open for U.S. stocks. There weren’t any major headlines overnight, although a trade skirmish between the U.S. and Europe is garnering some focus this morning. The White House moved yesterday toward imposing $11 billion of tariffs on imports from the European Union to counter subsidies provided to European aircraft manufacturer Airbus. The U.S. has been in litigation over this issue at the World Trade Organization since 2004, and with no resolution over that timeframe, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said, “the time has come for action.”
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was lower than expected in March (101.8 vs. 102.0 expected) and essentially unchanged versus the prior month. Labor market indicators within the survey remained positive, but survey participants generally felt that current inventory stocks are too high (i.e., less likely to invest in building inventories in the near term). Fed Governors Quarles and Clarida will be speaking at separate events today. Quarles will discuss financial rules/regulations, while Clarida will review the monetary policy framework as part of a Fed Listens event.
Jason HaleyManaging Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 4/8/2019 | Factory Orders | -0.50% | -0.50% | 0.10% | 0.00% |
| 4/8/2019 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | 0.30% | -0.20% | -0.10% |
| 4/8/2019 | Durable Goods Orders | -1.60% | -1.60% | -1.60% | — |
| 4/8/2019 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.10% | -0.10% | 0.10% | — |
| 4/8/2019 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | -0.10% | -0.10% | — |
| 4/8/2019 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | -0.10% | 0.00% | — |
| 4/9/2019 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 102 | 101.8 | 101.7 | — |
| 4/9/2019 | JOLTS Job Openings | 7550 | — | 7581 | — |
| 4/10/2019 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 18.60% | — |
| 4/10/2019 | CPI MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 4/10/2019 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 4/10/2019 | CPI YoY | 1.80% | — | 1.50% | — |
| 4/10/2019 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.10% | — | 2.10% | — |
| 4/10/2019 | CPI Core Index SA | 261.465 | — | 260.989 | — |
| 4/10/2019 | CPI Index NSA | 254.193 | — | 252.776 | — |
| 4/10/2019 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 1.90% | — |
| 4/10/2019 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 1.60% | — |
| 4/10/2019 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
| 4/10/2019 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$181.0b | — | -$234.0b | — |
| 4/11/2019 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 4/11/2019 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 4/11/2019 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 4/11/2019 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 1.90% | — | 1.90% | — |
| 4/11/2019 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.40% | — | 2.50% | — |
| 4/11/2019 | Initial Jobless Claims | 210k | — | 202k | — |
| 4/11/2019 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 2.30% | — |
| 4/11/2019 | Continuing Claims | 1735k | — | 1717k | — |
| 4/11/2019 | Bloomberg April United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 4/11/2019 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 58.9 | — |
| 4/12/2019 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 4/12/2019 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | -0.10% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 4/12/2019 | Import Price Index YoY | -0.70% | — | -1.30% | — |
| 4/12/2019 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 4/12/2019 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/12/2019 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 98.1 | — | 98.4 | — |
| 4/12/2019 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 113.3 | — |
| 4/12/2019 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 88.8 | — |
| 4/12/2019 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |
| 4/12/2019 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |