US Treasuries yields were higher initially in the overnight session but have since rallied back as the market continues to digest the future path of monetary policy. As widely expected, the FOMC announced a 25 bps cut in the fed funds target range to 2% – 2.25%, and the IOER rate was lowered by the same amount to 2.10%. The Committee’s decision was based on “implications of global developments” and “muted inflation pressures.” In addition to the rate cut, the FOMC announced its intentions to prematurely end balance-sheet reduction in August (two months ahead of schedule), which was also largely expected by market participants. The word “patient” did not reemerge in the statement, which the market will perceive as a signal that the Fed does not expect this to be an isolated rate cut, and the official statement left out any key words that would suggest this was a “one and done” action.
Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
8/1/2019 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | 43.20% | 12.80% | — |
8/1/2019 | Initial Jobless Claims | 214k | 215k | 206k | 207k |
8/1/2019 | Continuing Claims | 1674k | 1699k | 1676k | 1677k |
8/1/2019 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 63.7 | — |
8/1/2019 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 50.1 | — | 50 | — |
8/1/2019 | ISM Manufacturing | 52 | — | 51.7 | — |
8/1/2019 | ISM Employment | — | — | 54.5 | — |
8/1/2019 | ISM Prices Paid | 49 | — | 47.9 | — |
8/1/2019 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 50 | — |
8/1/2019 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.80% | — |
8/1/2019 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 16.90m | — | 17.30m | — |
8/2/2019 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 165k | — | 224k | — |
8/2/2019 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | — | — |
8/2/2019 | Change in Private Payrolls | 165k | — | 191k | — |
8/2/2019 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 5k | — | 17k | — |
8/2/2019 | Unemployment Rate | 3.60% | — | 3.70% | — |
8/2/2019 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
8/2/2019 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.10% | — | 3.10% | — |
8/2/2019 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.4 | — | 34.4 | — |
8/2/2019 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.90% | — | 62.90% | — |
8/2/2019 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.20% | — |
8/2/2019 | Trade Balance | -$54.6b | — | -$55.5b | — |
8/2/2019 | Factory Orders | 0.70% | — | -0.70% | — |
8/2/2019 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.10% | — |
8/2/2019 | Durable Goods Orders | — | — | 2.00% | — |
8/2/2019 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 1.20% | — |
8/2/2019 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 1.90% | — |
8/2/2019 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.60% | — |
8/2/2019 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 98.5 | — | 98.4 | — |
8/2/2019 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 111.1 | — |
8/2/2019 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 90.1 | — |
8/2/2019 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.60% | — |
8/2/2019 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.60% | — |
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