August 1, 2019 Headlines

US Treasuries yields were higher initially in the overnight session but have since rallied back as the market continues to digest the future path of monetary policy. As widely expected, the FOMC announced a 25 bps cut in the fed funds target range to 2% – 2.25%, and the IOER rate was lowered by the same amount to 2.10%. The Committee’s decision was based on “implications of global developments” and “muted inflation pressures.” In addition to the rate cut, the FOMC announced its intentions to prematurely end balance-sheet reduction in August (two months ahead of schedule), which was also largely expected by market participants. The word “patient” did not reemerge in the statement, which the market will perceive as a signal that the Fed does not expect this to be an isolated rate cut, and the official statement left out any key words that would suggest this was a “one and done” action.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
8/1/2019Challenger Job Cuts YoY—43.20%12.80%—
8/1/2019Initial Jobless Claims214k215k206k207k
8/1/2019Continuing Claims1674k1699k1676k1677k
8/1/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort——63.7—
8/1/2019Markit US Manufacturing PMI50.1—50—
8/1/2019ISM Manufacturing52—51.7—
8/1/2019ISM Employment——54.5—
8/1/2019ISM Prices Paid49—47.9—
8/1/2019ISM New Orders——50—
8/1/2019Construction Spending MoM0.30%—-0.80%—
8/1/2019Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.90m—17.30m—
8/2/2019Change in Nonfarm Payrolls165k—224k—
8/2/2019Two-Month Payroll Net Revision————
8/2/2019Change in Private Payrolls165k—191k—
8/2/2019Change in Manufact. Payrolls5k—17k—
8/2/2019Unemployment Rate3.60%—3.70%—
8/2/2019Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%—0.20%—
8/2/2019Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.10%—3.10%—
8/2/2019Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.4—34.4—
8/2/2019Labor Force Participation Rate62.90%—62.90%—
8/2/2019Underemployment Rate——7.20%—
8/2/2019Trade Balance-$54.6b—-$55.5b—
8/2/2019Factory Orders0.70%—-0.70%—
8/2/2019Factory Orders Ex Trans——0.10%—
8/2/2019Durable Goods Orders——2.00%—
8/2/2019Durables Ex Transportation——1.20%—
8/2/2019Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air——1.90%—
8/2/2019Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air——0.60%—
8/2/2019U. of Mich. Sentiment98.5—98.4—
8/2/2019U. of Mich. Current Conditions——111.1—
8/2/2019U. of Mich. Expectations——90.1—
8/2/2019U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation——2.60%—
8/2/2019U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation——2.60%—

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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