August 11, 2021 Headlines

The July CPI rose 0.5% m/m, right at the median forecast. Core CPI which excludes food and energy costs rose 0.3% m/m, 0.1% less than expected. Headline CPI was up 5.4% compared to a year ago, while Core CPI was up 4.3%. Supply chain bottlenecks had been a major driver of increasing costs as business struggled to keep up with consumer demand, but some of this pressure has seems to have abated. For instance, used car prices rose by a smaller amount and, according to the Labor Department, was a “major factor” in the slow down in inflation for July.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
08/09/21JOLTS Job Openings9270k10073k9209k9483k
08/10/21NFIB Small Business Optimism10299.7102.5
08/10/21Nonfarm Productivity3.20%2.30%5.40%4.30%
08/10/21Unit Labor Costs1.00%1.00%1.70%-2.80%
08/11/21MBA Mortgage Applications2.80%-1.70%
08/11/21CPI MoM0.50%0.50%0.90%
08/11/21CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.40%0.30%0.90%
08/11/21CPI YoY5.30%5.40%5.40%
08/11/21CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.30%4.30%4.50%
08/11/21CPI Index NSA272.937273271.7
08/11/21CPI Core Index SA279.45279.05278.14
08/11/21Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-0.70%-1.40%-1.00%
08/11/21Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-1.20%-1.70%-1.60%
08/11/21Monthly Budget Statement-$289.0b-$63.0b
08/12/21PPI Final Demand MoM0.60%1.00%
08/12/21Initial Jobless Claims375k385k
08/12/21PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%1.00%
08/12/21Continuing Claims2900k2930k
08/12/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.50%0.50%
08/12/21PPI Final Demand YoY7.20%7.30%
08/12/21PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY5.60%5.60%
08/12/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY5.70%5.50%
08/12/21Langer Consumer Comfort53.3
08/13/21Import Price Index MoM0.60%1.00%
08/13/21Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.50%0.70%
08/13/21Import Price Index YoY10.50%11.20%
08/13/21Export Price Index MoM0.80%1.20%
08/13/21Export Price Index YoY16.80%
08/13/21Bloomberg Aug. United States Economic Survey
08/13/21U. of Mich. Sentiment81.281.2
08/13/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions8284.5
08/13/21U. of Mich. Expectations77.579
08/13/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.60%4.70%
08/13/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.80%

 

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