August 11, 2022 Headlines

The producer price index fell by 0.5% last month, the first decline since April of 2020. The Bloomberg median forecast had called for an increase of 0.2%. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy costs, rose by 0.2% vs 0.4% expected. Today’s softer than expected PPI readings combined with yesterday’s CPI numbers suggests that inflation pressures are starting to ease, sending Treasury yields 6 to 7 bps lower on the front-end and belly of the curve.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
08/09/22	NFIB Small Business Optimism	89.5	89.9	89.5	—
08/09/22	Nonfarm Productivity	-4.60%	-4.60%	-7.30%	-7.40%
08/09/22	Unit Labor Costs	9.50%	10.80%	12.60%	12.70%
08/10/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	0.20%	1.20%	—
08/10/22	CPI MoM	0.20%	0.00%	1.30%	—
08/10/22	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.50%	0.30%	0.70%	—
08/10/22	CPI YoY	8.70%	8.50%	9.10%	—
08/10/22	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	6.10%	5.90%	5.90%	—
08/10/22	CPI Index NSA	296.756	296.276	296.311	—
08/10/22	CPI Core Index SA	295.983	295.275	294.354	—
08/10/22	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	-3.00%	-3.60%	-3.40%
08/10/22	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	-3.60%	-4.40%	-4.00%
08/10/22	Wholesale Inventories MoM	1.90%	—	1.90%	—
08/10/22	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	0.50%	—	0.50%	—
08/10/22	Monthly Budget Statement	-$175.0b	—	-$302.1b	—
08/11/22	PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	7.70%	—	8.20%	—
08/11/22	Initial Jobless Claims	265k	—	260k	—
08/11/22	Continuing Claims	1420k	—	1416k	—
08/11/22	PPI Final Demand MoM	0.20%	—	1.10%	—
08/11/22	PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.40%	—	0.40%	—
08/11/22	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM	0.40%	—	0.30%	—
08/11/22	PPI Final Demand YoY	10.40%	—	11.30%	—
08/11/22	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY	5.90%	—	6.40%	—
08/12/22	Import Price Index MoM	-1.00%	—	0.20%	—
08/12/22	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	-0.10%	—	-0.40%	—
08/12/22	Import Price Index YoY	9.40%	—	10.70%	—
08/12/22	Export Price Index MoM	-1.00%	—	0.70%	—
08/12/22	Export Price Index YoY	—	—	18.20%	—
08/12/22	Bloomberg Aug. United States Economic Survey
08/12/22	U. of Mich. Sentiment	52.5	—	51.5	—
08/12/22	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	57.8	—	58.1	—
08/12/22	U. of Mich. Expectations	48.5	—	47.3	—
08/12/22	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	5.10%	—	5.20%	—
08/12/22	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	2.80%	—	2.90%	—

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