August 11, 2022 Headlines

The producer price index fell by 0.5% last month, the first decline since April of 2020. The Bloomberg median forecast had called for an increase of 0.2%. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy costs, rose by 0.2% vs 0.4% expected. Today’s softer than expected PPI readings combined with yesterday’s CPI numbers suggests that inflation pressures are starting to ease, sending Treasury yields 6 to 7 bps lower on the front-end and belly of the curve.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

08/09/22NFIB Small Business Optimism89.589.989.5
08/09/22Nonfarm Productivity-4.60%-4.60%-7.30%-7.40%
08/09/22Unit Labor Costs9.50%10.80%12.60%12.70%
08/10/22MBA Mortgage Applications0.20%1.20%
08/10/22CPI MoM0.20%0.00%1.30%
08/10/22CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%0.30%0.70%
08/10/22CPI YoY8.70%8.50%9.10%
08/10/22CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY6.10%5.90%5.90%
08/10/22CPI Index NSA296.756296.276296.311
08/10/22CPI Core Index SA295.983295.275294.354
08/10/22Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-3.00%-3.60%-3.40%
08/10/22Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-3.60%-4.40%-4.00%
08/10/22Wholesale Inventories MoM1.90%1.90%
08/10/22Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.50%0.50%
08/10/22Monthly Budget Statement-$175.0b-$302.1b
08/11/22PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY7.70%8.20%
08/11/22Initial Jobless Claims265k260k
08/11/22Continuing Claims1420k1416k
08/11/22PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%1.10%
08/11/22PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.40%0.40%
08/11/22PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.40%0.30%
08/11/22PPI Final Demand YoY10.40%11.30%
08/11/22PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY5.90%6.40%
08/12/22Import Price Index MoM-1.00%0.20%
08/12/22Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.10%-0.40%
08/12/22Import Price Index YoY9.40%10.70%
08/12/22Export Price Index MoM-1.00%0.70%
08/12/22Export Price Index YoY18.20%
08/12/22Bloomberg Aug. United States Economic Survey
08/12/22U. of Mich. Sentiment52.551.5
08/12/22U. of Mich. Current Conditions57.858.1
08/12/22U. of Mich. Expectations48.547.3
08/12/22U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation5.10%5.20%
08/12/22U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.80%2.90%


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