August 12, 2019 Headlines

There’s another risk-off trade to start the week, this time sparked by geopolitical tensions in Hong Kong. Treasury yields are 6 bps lower across the curve, and S&P 500 futures are down 0.53%. Protests in Hong Kong escalated overnight, causing the airport to cancel all remaining Monday flights. China is closely monitoring the situation, and government officials referred to the acts of the protesters as “signs of terrorism” and also said the situation is at a “critical juncture.” Reports suggests that Chinese police forces have mobilized in Shenzhen, which borders Hong Kong. A Chinese police intervention in Hong Kong would likely rattle financial markets, particularly emerging markets. Speaking of emerging markets, surprise election results in Argentina have spooked investors and raised default concerns on the country’s debt. Argentina’s currency was hit hard, and the contagion spread to other South American currencies as well (Brazilian real, Chilean person, etc.). This week’s domestic economic calendar is headlined by tomorrow’s CPI report (July) and Thursday’s retail sales report (July).

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

8/12/2019Monthly Budget Statement-$120.0b-$76.9b
8/12/2019Mortgage Delinquencies4.42%
8/12/2019MBA Mortgage Foreclosures0.92%
8/13/2019NFIB Small Business Optimism104103.3
8/13/2019CPI MoM0.30%0.10%
8/13/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%
8/13/2019CPI YoY1.70%1.60%
8/13/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.10%2.10%
8/13/2019CPI Core Index SA263.302262.8
8/13/2019CPI Index NSA256.441256.14
8/13/2019Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY1.50%
8/13/2019Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY1.20%
8/14/2019MBA Mortgage Applications5.30%
8/14/2019Import Price Index MoM-0.10%-0.90%
8/14/2019Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.10%-0.40%
8/14/2019Import Price Index YoY-2.00%-2.00%
8/14/2019Export Price Index MoM-0.10%-0.70%
8/14/2019Export Price Index YoY-1.60%
8/15/2019Empire Manufacturing24.3
8/15/2019Nonfarm Productivity1.40%3.40%
8/15/2019Unit Labor Costs1.90%-1.60%
8/15/2019Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook9.521.8
8/15/2019Retail Sales Advance MoM0.30%0.40%
8/15/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%0.70%
8/15/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%0.40%
8/15/2019Initial Jobless Claims213k209k
8/15/2019Retail Sales Control Group0.40%0.70%
8/15/2019Continuing Claims1685k1684k
8/15/2019Industrial Production MoM0.10%0.00%
8/15/2019Manufacturing (SIC) Production-0.30%0.40%
8/15/2019Capacity Utilization77.80%77.90%
8/15/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort62.9
8/15/2019NAHB Housing Market Index6565
8/15/2019Business Inventories0.10%0.30%
8/15/2019Net Long-term TIC Flows$3.5b
8/15/2019Total Net TIC Flows$32.9b
8/16/2019Housing Starts1255k1253k
8/16/2019Housing Starts MoM0.20%-0.90%
8/16/2019Building Permits1270k1220k1232k
8/16/2019Building Permits MoM3.10%-6.10%-5.20%
8/16/2019U. of Mich. Sentiment9798.4
8/16/2019U. of Mich. Current Conditions110.7
8/16/2019U. of Mich. Expectations90.5
8/16/2019U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.60%
8/16/2019U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%







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