August 12, 2021 Headlines

US Treasury yields traded sideways in the overnight session on light volumes with limited follow-through from yesterday’s rally. A strong 10-year auction and softer than expected CPI data initially pushed 10-year yields down to 1.33% at the NY close. The July inflation report showed Core CPI, which excludes more volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.3% MoM or 0.1% less than expected. The headline CPI figure matched the median forecast at 0.5% MoM.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

08/09/21JOLTS Job Openings9270k10073k9209k9483k
08/10/21NFIB Small Business Optimism10299.7102.5
08/10/21Nonfarm Productivity3.20%2.30%5.40%4.30%
08/10/21Unit Labor Costs1.00%1.00%1.70%-2.80%
08/11/21MBA Mortgage Applications2.80%-1.70%
08/11/21CPI MoM0.50%0.50%0.90%
08/11/21CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.40%0.30%0.90%
08/11/21CPI YoY5.30%5.40%5.40%
08/11/21CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.30%4.30%4.50%
08/11/21CPI Index NSA272.937273.003271.696
08/11/21CPI Core Index SA279.45279.054278.14
08/11/21Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-0.70%-1.40%-1.00%
08/11/21Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-1.20%-1.70%-1.60%
08/11/21Monthly Budget Statement-$294.0b-$302.1b-$63.0b
08/12/21Initial Jobless Claims375k375k385k387k
08/12/21Continuing Claims2900k2866k2930k2980k
08/12/21PPI Final Demand MoM0.60%1.00%1.00%
08/12/21PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%1.00%1.00%
08/12/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.50%0.90%0.50%
08/12/21PPI Final Demand YoY7.20%7.80%7.30%
08/12/21PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY5.60%6.20%5.60%
08/12/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY5.70%6.10%5.50%
08/12/21Langer Consumer Comfort54.653.3
08/13/21Import Price Index MoM0.60%1.00%
08/13/21Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.50%0.70%
08/13/21Import Price Index YoY10.50%11.20%
08/13/21Export Price Index MoM0.80%1.20%
08/13/21Export Price Index YoY16.80%
08/13/21Bloomberg Aug. United States Economic Survey
08/13/21U. of Mich. Sentiment81.281.2
08/13/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions8284.5
08/13/21U. of Mich. Expectations77.579
08/13/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.60%4.70%
08/13/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.80%

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