August 12, 2022 Headlines

Treasuries are currently rallying with the curve 2 to 3 bps lower while S&P futures are in the green as investors continue to digest the recent round of inflation data. The recent CPI and PPI prints have given investors hope that the Fed will not have to raise rates as aggressively and thus be more likely to achieve a soft landing. Today’s import price index release showed prices slowing down by 1.4% vs 1.0% expected in July. The fall was driven primarily by declining fuel prices. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index comes out later this morning, the median forecast calls for a reading of 52.5 up from July’s 51.5 reading.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
08/09/22 NFIB Small Business Optimism 89.5 89.9 89.5
08/09/22 Nonfarm Productivity -4.60% -4.60% -7.30% -7.40%
08/09/22 Unit Labor Costs 9.50% 10.80% 12.60% 12.70%
08/10/22 MBA Mortgage Applications 0.20% 1.20%
08/10/22 CPI MoM 0.20% 0.00% 1.30%
08/10/22 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.50% 0.30% 0.70%
08/10/22 CPI YoY 8.70% 8.50% 9.10%
08/10/22 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 6.10% 5.90% 5.90%
08/10/22 CPI Index NSA 296.756 296.276 296.311
08/10/22 CPI Core Index SA 295.983 295.275 294.354
08/10/22 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY -3.00% -3.60% -3.40%
08/10/22 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY -3.60% -4.40% -4.00%
08/10/22 Wholesale Inventories MoM 1.90% 1.80% 1.90%
08/10/22 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.50% 1.80% 0.50% 0.70%
08/10/22 Monthly Budget Statement -$175.0b -$211.1b -$302.1b
08/11/22 Initial Jobless Claims 265k 262k 260k 248k
08/11/22 Continuing Claims 1420k 1428k 1416k 1420k
08/11/22 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.20% -0.50% 1.10% 1.00%
08/11/22 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.40% 0.20% 0.40%
08/11/22 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.40% 0.20% 0.30%
08/11/22 PPI Final Demand YoY 10.40% 9.80% 11.30%
08/11/22 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 7.70% 7.60% 8.20% 8.40%
08/11/22 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 5.90% 5.80% 6.40%
08/12/22 Import Price Index MoM -1.00% -1.40% 0.20% 0.30%
08/12/22 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM -0.20% -0.70% -0.40% -0.50%
08/12/22 Import Price Index YoY 9.40% 8.80% 10.70%
08/12/22 Export Price Index MoM -1.00% -3.30% 0.70%
08/12/22 Export Price Index YoY 13.10% 18.20% 18.10%
08/12/22 Bloomberg Aug. United States Economic Survey
08/12/22 U. of Mich. Sentiment 52.5 51.5
08/12/22 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 57.8 58.1
08/12/22 U. of Mich. Expectations 48.5 47.3
08/12/22 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 5.10% 5.20%
08/12/22 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.80% 2.90%

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