August 12, 2022 Headlines

Treasuries are currently rallying with the curve 2 to 3 bps lower while S&P futures are in the green as investors continue to digest the recent round of inflation data. The recent CPI and PPI prints have given investors hope that the Fed will not have to raise rates as aggressively and thus be more likely to achieve a soft landing. Today’s import price index release showed prices slowing down by 1.4% vs 1.0% expected in July. The fall was driven primarily by declining fuel prices. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index comes out later this morning, the median forecast calls for a reading of 52.5 up from July’s 51.5 reading.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
08/09/22	NFIB Small Business Optimism	89.5	89.9	89.5	—
08/09/22	Nonfarm Productivity	-4.60%	-4.60%	-7.30%	-7.40%
08/09/22	Unit Labor Costs	9.50%	10.80%	12.60%	12.70%
08/10/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	0.20%	1.20%	—
08/10/22	CPI MoM	0.20%	0.00%	1.30%	—
08/10/22	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.50%	0.30%	0.70%	—
08/10/22	CPI YoY	8.70%	8.50%	9.10%	—
08/10/22	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	6.10%	5.90%	5.90%	—
08/10/22	CPI Index NSA	296.756	296.276	296.311	—
08/10/22	CPI Core Index SA	295.983	295.275	294.354	—
08/10/22	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	-3.00%	-3.60%	-3.40%
08/10/22	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	-3.60%	-4.40%	-4.00%
08/10/22	Wholesale Inventories MoM	1.90%	1.80%	1.90%	—
08/10/22	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	0.50%	1.80%	0.50%	0.70%
08/10/22	Monthly Budget Statement	-$175.0b	-$211.1b	-$302.1b	—
08/11/22	Initial Jobless Claims	265k	262k	260k	248k
08/11/22	Continuing Claims	1420k	1428k	1416k	1420k
08/11/22	PPI Final Demand MoM	0.20%	-0.50%	1.10%	1.00%
08/11/22	PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.40%	0.20%	0.40%	—
08/11/22	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM	0.40%	0.20%	0.30%	—
08/11/22	PPI Final Demand YoY	10.40%	9.80%	11.30%	—
08/11/22	PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	7.70%	7.60%	8.20%	8.40%
08/11/22	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY	5.90%	5.80%	6.40%	—
08/12/22	Import Price Index MoM	-1.00%	-1.40%	0.20%	0.30%
08/12/22	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	-0.20%	-0.70%	-0.40%	-0.50%
08/12/22	Import Price Index YoY	9.40%	8.80%	10.70%	—
08/12/22	Export Price Index MoM	-1.00%	-3.30%	0.70%	—
08/12/22	Export Price Index YoY	—	13.10%	18.20%	18.10%
08/12/22	Bloomberg Aug. United States Economic Survey
08/12/22	U. of Mich. Sentiment	52.5	—	51.5	—
08/12/22	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	57.8	—	58.1	—
08/12/22	U. of Mich. Expectations	48.5	—	47.3	—
08/12/22	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	5.10%	—	5.20%	—
08/12/22	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	2.80%	—	2.90%	—

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