The ongoing economic crisis in Turkey continues to weigh on markets, pushing US equity futures into negative territory while Treasuries continue the rally from last week. Even though Turkey may only make up a small portion of the global economy, there is fear amongst market participants that the situation could spread in a manner reminiscent of past crises in emerging markets. Turkey’s central bank was able to allay some fears by pledging to provide liquidity and reduce reserve requirements for its banks; but, ultimately the three separate speeches by President Erdogan in which he allegedly took higher rates and an international bailout off the table kept the flames of the risk-off sentiment lit.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
08/13-08/17Mortgage Delinquencies4.63%
08/13-08/17MBA Mortgage Foreclosures1.16%
08/14NFIB Small Business Optimism106.8107.2
08/14Import Price Index MoM0.00%-0.40%
08/14Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.10%-0.30%
08/14Import Price Index YoY4.50%4.30%
08/14Export Price Index MoM0.20%0.30%
08/14Export Price Index YoY5.30%
08/15MBA Mortgage Applications-3.00%
08/15Empire Manufacturing2022.6
08/15Nonfarm Productivity2.40%0.40%
08/15Unit Labor Costs0.20%2.90%
08/15Retail Sales Advance MoM0.10%0.50%
08/15Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%0.40%
08/15Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%0.30%
08/15Retail Sales Control Group0.40%0.00%
08/15Industrial Production MoM0.30%0.60%
08/15Capacity Utilization78.20%78.00%
08/15Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.30%0.80%
08/15Business Inventories0.10%0.40%
08/15NAHB Housing Market Index6768
08/15Total Net TIC Flows$69.9b
08/15Net Long-term TIC Flows$45.6b
08/16Initial Jobless Claims215k213k
08/16Continuing Claims1741k1755k
08/16Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2225.7
08/16Housing Starts1260k1173k
08/16Housing Starts MoM7.40%-12.30%
08/16Building Permits1310k1273k1292k
08/16Building Permits MoM1.40%-2.20%-0.70%
08/16Bloomberg Economic Expectations53.5
08/16Bloomberg Consumer Comfort59.3
08/17Leading Index0.40%0.50%
08/17U. of Mich. Sentiment9897.9
08/17U. of Mich. Current Conditions114.4
08/17U. of Mich. Expectations87.3
08/17U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.90%
08/17U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.40%