US Treasury prices recovered overnight following yesterday’s sell-off due to the weak 30-year auction. The market struggled to absorb $26 billion in issuance and set a record, eclipsing the previous high-water mark set in May by $4 billion. Soft economic data out of China and new UK quarantine rules initially sparked the risk-off sentiment while disappointing US retail sales compounded the concerns. The headline estimate showed July retail sales slowed to 1.2% MoM compared to expectations of 2.1%. With today’s reading, the total value of retail sales has now exceeded pre-pandemic levels. At the open, the 10-year yield has decreased to .70% and S&P 500 futures are down 3.75 points (-.11%).
Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
8/14/20 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 2.10% | 1.20% | 7.50% | 8.40% |
8/14/20 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 1.30% | 1.90% | 7.30% | 8.30% |
8/14/20 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 1.00% | 1.50% | 6.70% | 7.70% |
8/14/20 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.80% | 1.40% | 5.60% | 6.00% |
8/14/20 | Nonfarm Productivity | 1.50% | 7.30% | -0.90% | -0.30% |
8/14/20 | Unit Labor Costs | 6.90% | 12.20% | 5.10% | 9.80% |
8/14/20 | Industrial Production MoM | 3.00% | 3.00% | 5.40% | 5.70% |
8/14/20 | Capacity Utilization | 70.30% | 70.60% | 68.60% | 68.50% |
8/14/20 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 3.00% | 3.40% | 7.20% | 7.40% |
8/14/20 | Bloomberg Aug. United States Economic Survey | ||||
8/14/20 | Business Inventories | -1.10% | — | -2.30% | — |
8/14/20 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 72 | — | 72.5 | — |
8/14/20 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 82.3 | — | 82.8 | — |
8/14/20 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 65.5 | — | 65.9 | — |
8/14/20 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 2.90% | — | 3.00% | — |
8/14/20 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.60% | — |
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