August 14, 2020 Headlines

US Treasury prices recovered overnight following yesterday’s sell-off due to the weak 30-year auction. The market struggled to absorb $26 billion in issuance and set a record, eclipsing the previous high-water mark set in May by $4 billion. Soft economic data out of China and new UK quarantine rules initially sparked the risk-off sentiment while disappointing US retail sales compounded the concerns. The headline estimate showed July retail sales slowed to 1.2% MoM compared to expectations of 2.1%. With today’s reading, the total value of retail sales has now exceeded pre-pandemic levels. At the open, the 10-year yield has decreased to .70% and S&P 500 futures are down 3.75 points (-.11%).

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
8/14/20	Retail Sales Advance MoM	2.10%	1.20%	7.50%	8.40%
8/14/20	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	1.30%	1.90%	7.30%	8.30%
8/14/20	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	1.00%	1.50%	6.70%	7.70%
8/14/20	Retail Sales Control Group	0.80%	1.40%	5.60%	6.00%
8/14/20	Nonfarm Productivity	1.50%	7.30%	-0.90%	-0.30%
8/14/20	Unit Labor Costs	6.90%	12.20%	5.10%	9.80%
8/14/20	Industrial Production MoM	3.00%	3.00%	5.40%	5.70%
8/14/20	Capacity Utilization	70.30%	70.60%	68.60%	68.50%
8/14/20	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	3.00%	3.40%	7.20%	7.40%
8/14/20	Bloomberg Aug. United States Economic Survey
8/14/20	Business Inventories	-1.10%	—	-2.30%	—
8/14/20	U. of Mich. Sentiment	72	—	72.5	—
8/14/20	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	82.3	—	82.8	—
8/14/20	U. of Mich. Expectations	65.5	—	65.9	—
8/14/20	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	2.90%	—	3.00%	—
8/14/20	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.60%	—

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