The market took a breather from the Turkey-induced selloff with US equity futures pointing to a higher open this morning while Treasuries are slightly lower. The Turkish lira moved into positive territory while the country’s main equity index also saw gains. The NFIB Small Business Optimism index came in at 107.9 just shy of the all time of 108 set back in 1983. The reading indicates that tariff fears haven’t impacted the outlook of small business owners who plan on hiring more employees and growing their businesses. The survey also indicated that the biggest problem facing small business is the lack of qualified workers; given this scarcity wages should increase in order to attract new employees.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
08/14/2018NFIB Small Business Optimism106.8107.9107.2
08/14/2018Import Price Index MoM0.00%0.00%-0.40%-0.10%
08/14/2018Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.10%-0.10%-0.30%-0.40%
08/14/2018Import Price Index YoY4.50%4.80%4.30%4.70%
08/14/2018Export Price Index MoM0.20%-0.50%0.30%0.20%
08/14/2018Export Price Index YoY4.30%5.30%
08/15/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-3.00%
08/15/2018Empire Manufacturing2022.6
08/15/2018Nonfarm Productivity2.40%0.40%
08/15/2018Unit Labor Costs0.00%2.90%
08/15/2018Retail Sales Advance MoM0.10%0.50%
08/15/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%0.40%
08/15/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%0.30%
08/15/2018Retail Sales Control Group0.40%0.00%
08/15/2018Industrial Production MoM0.30%0.60%
08/15/2018Capacity Utilization78.20%78.00%
08/15/2018Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.30%0.80%
08/15/2018Business Inventories0.10%0.40%
08/15/2018NAHB Housing Market Index6768
08/15/2018Total Net TIC Flows$69.9b
08/15/2018Net Long-term TIC Flows$45.6b
08/15/2018Mortgage Delinquencies4.63%
08/15/2018MBA Mortgage Foreclosures1.16%
08/16/2018Initial Jobless Claims215k213k
08/16/2018Continuing Claims1740k1755k
08/16/2018Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2225.7
08/16/2018Housing Starts1260k1173k
08/16/2018Housing Starts MoM7.40%-12.30%
08/16/2018Building Permits1310k1273k1292k
08/16/2018Building Permits MoM1.40%-2.20%-0.70%
08/16/2018Bloomberg Economic Expectations53.5
08/16/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort59.3
08/17/2018Leading Index0.40%0.50%
08/17/2018U. of Mich. Sentiment9897.9
08/17/2018U. of Mich. Current Conditions114.4
08/17/2018U. of Mich. Expectations87.3
08/17/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.90%
08/17/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.40%