August 15, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are slightly lower across the curve following a very quiet overnight session. The 2-year/10-year Treasury spread is now -0.42%, 7 basis points steeper than last week’s cycle low of -0.50%. In global news, China announced a surprise (and small) rate cut following the release of more disappointing economic data for July in retail sales, industrial output, and fixed-asset investment. For this week’s domestic economic calendar, the July 27 FOMC minutes will likely receive the most attention, but July retail sales and housing data (starts and existing home sales) will also be released this week. Regarding the FOMC minutes, the text is likely to reveal a more hawkish tone from participants pushing back on the notion of a near-term “policy pivot,” which the bond market has mostly adjusted for following the hawkish Fedspeak in the wake of that meeting.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
8/15/2022Empire Manufacturing5—11.1—
8/15/2022NAHB Housing Market Index54—55—
8/15/2022Net Long-term TIC Flows——$155.3b—
8/15/2022Total Net TIC Flows——$182.5b—
8/16/2022Building Permits1640k—1685k1696k
8/16/2022Building Permits MoM-3.30%—-0.60%0.10%
8/16/2022Housing Starts1528k—1559k—
8/16/2022Housing Starts MoM-2.00%—-2.00%—
8/16/2022Industrial Production MoM0.30%—-0.20%—
8/16/2022Capacity Utilization80.20%—80.00%—
8/16/2022Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.40%—-0.50%—
8/17/2022MBA Mortgage Applications——0.20%—
8/17/2022Retail Sales Advance MoM0.10%—1.00%—
8/17/2022Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM-0.10%—1.00%—
8/17/2022Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%—0.70%—
8/17/2022Retail Sales Control Group0.60%—0.80%—
8/17/2022Business Inventories1.40%—1.40%—
8/17/2022FOMC Meeting Minutes————
8/18/2022Initial Jobless Claims265k—262k—
8/18/2022Continuing Claims1450k—1428k—
8/18/2022Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook-5—-12.3—
8/18/2022Existing Home Sales4.86m—5.12m—
8/18/2022Existing Home Sales MoM-5.10%—-5.40%—
8/18/2022Leading Index-0.50%—-0.80%—
8/22/2022Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index——-0.19-0.19

 

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