Treasuries are rallying this morning 1 to 3 bps across the curve seemingly driven by weakness in global equity markets. US equity futures declined in sympathy with the sell off in Asia and Europe, which was sparked by disappointing earnings from the Chinese tech company Tencent.

US retail sales for the month of July came in better than expected at 0.5% vs the consensus median of 0.1%; while June’s number was revised down to 0.2% from 0.5%. This increase in spending should reinforce the optimism of small business owners that was expressed in yesterday’s NFIB survey. The one caveat to this current buoyant mood is that wage growth remains tepid at best. Last Friday’s real average hourly earnings reading showed a decline of 0.2% year over year, which for an economy that relies heavily on consumer spending, could result in slower growth going forward.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPrior
08/14/2018NFIB Small Business Optimism106.8107.9107.2
08/14/2018Import Price Index MoM0.00%0.00%-0.40%
08/14/2018Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.10%-0.10%-0.30%
08/14/2018Import Price Index YoY4.50%4.80%4.30%
08/14/2018Export Price Index MoM0.20%-0.50%0.30%
08/14/2018Export Price Index YoY4.30%5.30%
08/15/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-2.00%-3.00%
08/15/2018Empire Manufacturing2025.622.6
08/15/2018Nonfarm Productivity2.40%2.90%0.40%
08/15/2018Unit Labor Costs0.00%-0.90%2.90%
08/15/2018Retail Sales Advance MoM0.10%0.50%0.50%
08/15/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%0.60%0.40%
08/15/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%0.60%0.30%
08/15/2018Retail Sales Control Group0.40%0.50%0.00%
08/15/2018Industrial Production MoM0.30%0.60%
08/15/2018Capacity Utilization78.20%78.00%
08/15/2018Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.30%0.80%
08/15/2018Business Inventories0.10%0.40%
08/15/2018NAHB Housing Market Index6768
08/15/2018Total Net TIC Flows$69.9b
08/15/2018Net Long-term TIC Flows$45.6b
08/15/2018Mortgage Delinquencies4.63%
08/15/2018MBA Mortgage Foreclosures1.16%
08/16/2018Initial Jobless Claims215k213k
08/16/2018Continuing Claims1740k1755k
08/16/2018Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2225.7
08/16/2018Housing Starts1260k1173k
08/16/2018Housing Starts MoM7.40%-12.30%
08/16/2018Building Permits1310k1273k
08/16/2018Building Permits MoM1.40%-2.20%
08/16/2018Bloomberg Economic Expectations53.5
08/16/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort59.3
08/17/2018Leading Index0.40%0.50%
08/17/2018U. of Mich. Sentiment9897.9
08/17/2018U. of Mich. Current Conditions114.4
08/17/2018U. of Mich. Expectations87.3
08/17/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.90%
08/17/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.40%