August 16 2019 Headlines

Treasury yields are 2 to 3 basis points higher this morning while equity futures are pointing to a higher open. Risk assets caught a bid overnight as no news was good news in a week where headlines and economic data punished stocks and sparked a significant rally in rates. The economic calendar is light this morning with housing starts and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment index the only 2 releases on the docket. Housing starts in July came in lower than expected at 1.19 million; falling for a third consecutive month. The decline was largely due to a slump in construction of new apartments. The weakness in multifamily construction overshadowed a 1.3% increase in single-family starts

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
8/12/2019 Monthly Budget Statement -$120.0b -$119.7b -$76.9b
8/13/2019 NFIB Small Business Optimism 104 104.7 103.3
8/13/2019 CPI MoM 0.30% 0.30% 0.10%
8/13/2019 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.30% 0.30%
8/13/2019 CPI YoY 1.70% 1.80% 1.60%
8/13/2019 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.10% 2.20% 2.10%
8/13/2019 CPI Core Index SA 263.302 263.569 262.8
8/13/2019 CPI Index NSA 256.441 256.571 256.14
8/13/2019 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 1.30% 1.50%
8/13/2019 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 0.80% 1.20%
8/13/2019 Mortgage Delinquencies 4.53% 4.42%
8/13/2019 MBA Mortgage Foreclosures 0.90% 0.92%
8/14/2019 MBA Mortgage Applications 21.70% 5.30%
8/14/2019 Import Price Index MoM -0.10% 0.20% -0.90% -1.10%
8/14/2019 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM -0.10% 0.00% -0.40%
8/14/2019 Import Price Index YoY -2.00% -1.80% -2.00%
8/14/2019 Export Price Index MoM -0.10% 0.20% -0.70% -0.60%
8/14/2019 Export Price Index YoY -0.90% -1.60%
8/15/2019 Empire Manufacturing 2 4.8 4.3
8/15/2019 Nonfarm Productivity 1.40% 2.30% 3.40% 3.50%
8/15/2019 Unit Labor Costs 2.00% 2.40% -1.60% 5.50%
8/15/2019 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 9.5 16.8 21.8
8/15/2019 Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.30% 0.70% 0.40% 0.30%
8/15/2019 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.40% 1.00% 0.40% 0.30%
8/15/2019 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.50% 0.90% 0.70% 0.60%
8/15/2019 Retail Sales Control Group 0.40% 1.00% 0.70%
8/15/2019 Initial Jobless Claims 212k 220k 209k 211k
8/15/2019 Continuing Claims 1685k 1726k 1684k 1687k
8/15/2019 Industrial Production MoM 0.10% -0.20% 0.00% 0.20%
8/15/2019 Manufacturing (SIC) Production -0.30% -0.40% 0.40% 0.60%
8/15/2019 Capacity Utilization 77.80% 77.50% 77.90% 77.80%
8/15/2019 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 61.2 62.9
8/15/2019 NAHB Housing Market Index 65 66 65
8/15/2019 Business Inventories 0.10% 0.00% 0.30%
8/15/2019 Net Long-term TIC Flows $99.1b $3.5b $4.6b
8/15/2019 Total Net TIC Flows $1.7b $32.9b $37.6b
8/16/2019 Housing Starts 1256k 1191k 1253k 1241k
8/16/2019 Housing Starts MoM 0.20% -4.00% -0.90% -1.80%
8/16/2019 Building Permits 1270k 1336k 1220k 1232k
8/16/2019 Building Permits MoM 3.10% 8.40% -6.10% -5.20%
8/16/2019 U. of Mich. Sentiment 97 98.4
8/16/2019 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 110.7
8/16/2019 U. of Mich. Expectations 90.5
8/16/2019 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.60%
8/16/2019 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.50%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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