August 16 2019 Headlines

Treasury yields are 2 to 3 basis points higher this morning while equity futures are pointing to a higher open. Risk assets caught a bid overnight as no news was good news in a week where headlines and economic data punished stocks and sparked a significant rally in rates. The economic calendar is light this morning with housing starts and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment index the only 2 releases on the docket. Housing starts in July came in lower than expected at 1.19 million; falling for a third consecutive month. The decline was largely due to a slump in construction of new apartments. The weakness in multifamily construction overshadowed a 1.3% increase in single-family starts

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
8/12/2019	Monthly Budget Statement	-$120.0b	-$119.7b	-$76.9b	—
8/13/2019	NFIB Small Business Optimism	104	104.7	103.3	—
8/13/2019	CPI MoM	0.30%	0.30%	0.10%	—
8/13/2019	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.20%	0.30%	0.30%	—
8/13/2019	CPI YoY	1.70%	1.80%	1.60%	—
8/13/2019	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	2.10%	2.20%	2.10%	—
8/13/2019	CPI Core Index SA	263.302	263.569	262.8	—
8/13/2019	CPI Index NSA	256.441	256.571	256.14	—
8/13/2019	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	1.30%	1.50%	—
8/13/2019	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	0.80%	1.20%	—
8/13/2019	Mortgage Delinquencies	—	4.53%	4.42%	—
8/13/2019	MBA Mortgage Foreclosures	—	0.90%	0.92%	—
8/14/2019	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	21.70%	5.30%	—
8/14/2019	Import Price Index MoM	-0.10%	0.20%	-0.90%	-1.10%
8/14/2019	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	-0.10%	0.00%	-0.40%	—
8/14/2019	Import Price Index YoY	-2.00%	-1.80%	-2.00%	—
8/14/2019	Export Price Index MoM	-0.10%	0.20%	-0.70%	-0.60%
8/14/2019	Export Price Index YoY	—	-0.90%	-1.60%	—
8/15/2019	Empire Manufacturing	2	4.8	4.3	—
8/15/2019	Nonfarm Productivity	1.40%	2.30%	3.40%	3.50%
8/15/2019	Unit Labor Costs	2.00%	2.40%	-1.60%	5.50%
8/15/2019	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	9.5	16.8	21.8	—
8/15/2019	Retail Sales Advance MoM	0.30%	0.70%	0.40%	0.30%
8/15/2019	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	0.40%	1.00%	0.40%	0.30%
8/15/2019	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	0.50%	0.90%	0.70%	0.60%
8/15/2019	Retail Sales Control Group	0.40%	1.00%	0.70%	—
8/15/2019	Initial Jobless Claims	212k	220k	209k	211k
8/15/2019	Continuing Claims	1685k	1726k	1684k	1687k
8/15/2019	Industrial Production MoM	0.10%	-0.20%	0.00%	0.20%
8/15/2019	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	-0.30%	-0.40%	0.40%	0.60%
8/15/2019	Capacity Utilization	77.80%	77.50%	77.90%	77.80%
8/15/2019	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	61.2	62.9	—
8/15/2019	NAHB Housing Market Index	65	66	65	—
8/15/2019	Business Inventories	0.10%	0.00%	0.30%	—
8/15/2019	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	$99.1b	$3.5b	$4.6b
8/15/2019	Total Net TIC Flows	—	$1.7b	$32.9b	$37.6b
8/16/2019	Housing Starts	1256k	1191k	1253k	1241k
8/16/2019	Housing Starts MoM	0.20%	-4.00%	-0.90%	-1.80%
8/16/2019	Building Permits	1270k	1336k	1220k	1232k
8/16/2019	Building Permits MoM	3.10%	8.40%	-6.10%	-5.20%
8/16/2019	U. of Mich. Sentiment	97	—	98.4	—
8/16/2019	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	—	—	110.7	—
8/16/2019	U. of Mich. Expectations	—	—	90.5	—
8/16/2019	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.60%	—
8/16/2019	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.50%	—

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