August 17, 2021 Headlines

A negative tone in global risk markets overnight is fueling another rally in Treasuries to start the day. The same general culprits being attributed to investor anxiety, including Covid spread and geopolitical concerns. Yesterday’s risk-off trade fizzled as the day progressed, with U.S. equity indices and Treasuries ending the day little changed. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said yesterday that another strong monthly jobs report (August) could support a September taper announcement. Rosengren is not a voting member of the FOMC in 2021. July retail sales fell more than expected, including a 1% m/m decline in control group sales (-0.2% expected). The report included modest upward revisions to the June growth rates, which partially offsets the bigger than expected July miss.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
08/16/21Empire Manufacturing28.518.343
08/16/21Total Net TIC Flows$31.5b$105.3b$98.2b
08/16/21Net Long-term TIC Flows$110.9b-$30.2b-$30.0b
08/17/21Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.30%-1.10%0.60%0.70%
08/17/21Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.20%-0.40%1.30%1.60%
08/17/21Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas-0.10%-0.70%1.10%1.30%
08/17/21Retail Sales Control Group-0.20%-1.00%1.10%1.40%
08/17/21Industrial Production MoM0.50%0.40%
08/17/21Capacity Utilization75.70%75.40%
08/17/21Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.70%-0.10%
08/17/21Business Inventories0.80%0.50%
08/17/21NAHB Housing Market Index8080
08/18/21MBA Mortgage Applications2.80%
08/18/21Housing Starts1600k1643k
08/18/21Housing Starts MoM-2.60%6.30%
08/18/21Building Permits MoM1.00%-5.10%-5.30%
08/18/21Building Permits1610k1598k1594k
08/18/21FOMC Meeting Minutes
08/18/21Mortgage Delinquencies6.38%
08/18/21MBA Mortgage Foreclosures0.54%
08/19/21Initial Jobless Claims365k375k
08/19/21Continuing Claims2800k2866k
08/19/21Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook23.321.9
08/19/21Langer Consumer Comfort54.6
08/19/21Leading Index0.70%0.70%

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