A negative tone in global risk markets overnight is fueling another rally in Treasuries to start the day. The same general culprits being attributed to investor anxiety, including Covid spread and geopolitical concerns. Yesterday’s risk-off trade fizzled as the day progressed, with U.S. equity indices and Treasuries ending the day little changed. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said yesterday that another strong monthly jobs report (August) could support a September taper announcement. Rosengren is not a voting member of the FOMC in 2021. July retail sales fell more than expected, including a 1% m/m decline in control group sales (-0.2% expected). The report included modest upward revisions to the June growth rates, which partially offsets the bigger than expected July miss.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
08/16/21 | Empire Manufacturing | 28.5 | 18.3 | 43 | — |
08/16/21 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | $31.5b | $105.3b | $98.2b |
08/16/21 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | $110.9b | -$30.2b | -$30.0b |
08/17/21 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | -0.30% | -1.10% | 0.60% | 0.70% |
08/17/21 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.20% | -0.40% | 1.30% | 1.60% |
08/17/21 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | -0.10% | -0.70% | 1.10% | 1.30% |
08/17/21 | Retail Sales Control Group | -0.20% | -1.00% | 1.10% | 1.40% |
08/17/21 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.40% | — |
08/17/21 | Capacity Utilization | 75.70% | — | 75.40% | — |
08/17/21 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.70% | — | -0.10% | — |
08/17/21 | Business Inventories | 0.80% | — | 0.50% | — |
08/17/21 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 80 | — | 80 | — |
08/18/21 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 2.80% | — |
08/18/21 | Housing Starts | 1600k | — | 1643k | — |
08/18/21 | Housing Starts MoM | -2.60% | — | 6.30% | — |
08/18/21 | Building Permits MoM | 1.00% | — | -5.10% | -5.30% |
08/18/21 | Building Permits | 1610k | — | 1598k | 1594k |
08/18/21 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
08/18/21 | Mortgage Delinquencies | — | — | 6.38% | — |
08/18/21 | MBA Mortgage Foreclosures | — | — | 0.54% | — |
08/19/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 365k | — | 375k | — |
08/19/21 | Continuing Claims | 2800k | — | 2866k | — |
08/19/21 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 23.3 | — | 21.9 | — |
08/19/21 | Langer Consumer Comfort | — | — | 54.6 | — |
08/19/21 | Leading Index | 0.70% | — | 0.70% | — |
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