August 17, 2021 Headlines

A negative tone in global risk markets overnight is fueling another rally in Treasuries to start the day. The same general culprits being attributed to investor anxiety, including Covid spread and geopolitical concerns. Yesterday’s risk-off trade fizzled as the day progressed, with U.S. equity indices and Treasuries ending the day little changed. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said yesterday that another strong monthly jobs report (August) could support a September taper announcement. Rosengren is not a voting member of the FOMC in 2021. July retail sales fell more than expected, including a 1% m/m decline in control group sales (-0.2% expected). The report included modest upward revisions to the June growth rates, which partially offsets the bigger than expected July miss.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
08/16/21	Empire Manufacturing	28.5	18.3	43	—
08/16/21	Total Net TIC Flows	—	$31.5b	$105.3b	$98.2b
08/16/21	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	$110.9b	-$30.2b	-$30.0b
08/17/21	Retail Sales Advance MoM	-0.30%	-1.10%	0.60%	0.70%
08/17/21	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	0.20%	-0.40%	1.30%	1.60%
08/17/21	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	-0.10%	-0.70%	1.10%	1.30%
08/17/21	Retail Sales Control Group	-0.20%	-1.00%	1.10%	1.40%
08/17/21	Industrial Production MoM	0.50%	—	0.40%	—
08/17/21	Capacity Utilization	75.70%	—	75.40%	—
08/17/21	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	0.70%	—	-0.10%	—
08/17/21	Business Inventories	0.80%	—	0.50%	—
08/17/21	NAHB Housing Market Index	80	—	80	—
08/18/21	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	2.80%	—
08/18/21	Housing Starts	1600k	—	1643k	—
08/18/21	Housing Starts MoM	-2.60%	—	6.30%	—
08/18/21	Building Permits MoM	1.00%	—	-5.10%	-5.30%
08/18/21	Building Permits	1610k	—	1598k	1594k
08/18/21	FOMC Meeting Minutes	—	—	—	—
08/18/21	Mortgage Delinquencies	—	—	6.38%	—
08/18/21	MBA Mortgage Foreclosures	—	—	0.54%	—
08/19/21	Initial Jobless Claims	365k	—	375k	—
08/19/21	Continuing Claims	2800k	—	2866k	—
08/19/21	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	23.3	—	21.9	—
08/19/21	Langer Consumer Comfort	—	—	54.6	—
08/19/21	Leading Index	0.70%	—	0.70%	—

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