Inflation data out of Europe overnight is fueling a sell-off in Treasuries this morning, sending front-end yields 10-12 basis points higher. The 2-year yield is at 3.36% at the moment, the highest since mid-June. The U.K.’s July CPI report came in higher than expected, with year-over-year rates for headline and core inflation up 10.1% and 6.2%, respectively, and higher energy prices across Europe are also weighing on government bond yields today. There are two notable economic releases today – the July retail sales report at 8:30am ET and the July 27 FOMC minutes at 2pm ET. The latter is the more anticipated release, but the retail sales report could also provide color on any signs of slowing consumption (beyond the impact of falling gas prices). The market is expecting a more hawkish tilt to the FOMC minutes, so anything less than that will likely spark a decent rally in front-end Treasuries.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 8/17/2022 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -2.30% | 0.20% | — |
| 8/17/2022 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.10% | 0.00% | 1.00% | 0.80% |
| 8/17/2022 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | -0.10% | 0.40% | 1.00% | 0.90% |
| 8/17/2022 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | 0.70% | 0.70% | — |
| 8/17/2022 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.60% | 0.80% | 0.80% | 0.70% |
| 8/17/2022 | Business Inventories | 1.40% | — | 1.40% | — |
| 8/17/2022 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
| 8/18/2022 | Initial Jobless Claims | 264k | — | 262k | — |
| 8/18/2022 | Continuing Claims | 1450k | — | 1428k | — |
| 8/18/2022 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | -5 | — | -12.3 | — |
| 8/18/2022 | Existing Home Sales | 4.87m | — | 5.12m | — |
| 8/18/2022 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -4.90% | — | -5.40% | — |
| 8/18/2022 | Leading Index | -0.50% | — | -0.80% | — |
| 8/22/2022 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | — | — | -0.19 | -0.19 |
| 8/23/2022 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | — | — | 52.2 | — |
| 8/23/2022 | S&P Global US Services PMI | — | — | 47.3 | — |
| 8/23/2022 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 47.7 | — |
| 8/23/2022 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | — | — | 0 | — |
| 8/23/2022 | New Home Sales | 590k | — | 590k | — |
| 8/23/2022 | New Home Sales MoM | 0.00% | — | -8.10% | — |
| 8/24/2022 | Riksbank’s Breman speaks | ||||
| 8/24/2022 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -2.30% | — |
| 8/24/2022 | Durable Goods Orders | 0.60% | — | 2.00% | — |
| 8/24/2022 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.10% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 8/24/2022 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.70% | — |
| 8/24/2022 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.70% | — |
| 8/24/2022 | Pending Home Sales MoM | — | — | -8.60% | — |
| 8/24/2022 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | -19.80% | — |
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