August 17, 2022 Headlines

Inflation data out of Europe overnight is fueling a sell-off in Treasuries this morning, sending front-end yields 10-12 basis points higher. The 2-year yield is at 3.36% at the moment, the highest since mid-June. The U.K.’s July CPI report came in higher than expected, with year-over-year rates for headline and core inflation up 10.1% and 6.2%, respectively, and higher energy prices across Europe are also weighing on government bond yields today. There are two notable economic releases today – the July retail sales report at 8:30am ET and the July 27 FOMC minutes at 2pm ET. The latter is the more anticipated release, but the retail sales report could also provide color on any signs of slowing consumption (beyond the impact of falling gas prices). The market is expecting a more hawkish tilt to the FOMC minutes, so anything less than that will likely spark a decent rally in front-end Treasuries.  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

8/17/2022MBA Mortgage Applications-2.30%0.20%
8/17/2022Retail Sales Advance MoM0.10%0.00%1.00%0.80%
8/17/2022Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM-0.10%0.40%1.00%0.90%
8/17/2022Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%0.70%0.70%
8/17/2022Retail Sales Control Group0.60%0.80%0.80%0.70%
8/17/2022Business Inventories1.40%1.40%
8/17/2022FOMC Meeting Minutes
8/18/2022Initial Jobless Claims264k262k
8/18/2022Continuing Claims1450k1428k
8/18/2022Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook-5-12.3
8/18/2022Existing Home Sales4.87m5.12m
8/18/2022Existing Home Sales MoM-4.90%-5.40%
8/18/2022Leading Index-0.50%-0.80%
8/22/2022Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index-0.19-0.19
8/23/2022S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI52.2
8/23/2022S&P Global US Services PMI47.3
8/23/2022S&P Global US Composite PMI47.7
8/23/2022Richmond Fed Manufact. Index0
8/23/2022New Home Sales590k590k
8/23/2022New Home Sales MoM0.00%-8.10%
8/24/2022Riksbank’s Breman speaks
8/24/2022MBA Mortgage Applications-2.30%
8/24/2022Durable Goods Orders0.60%2.00%
8/24/2022Durables Ex Transportation0.10%0.40%
8/24/2022Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.70%
8/24/2022Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.70%
8/24/2022Pending Home Sales MoM-8.60%
8/24/2022Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-19.80%


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