August 17, 2023 Headlines

The recent bear steepening trend for the US Treasury curve continues this morning. Long-end yields are higher following a historically bad 20-year bond auction in Japan, and front-end Treasuries were well bought in the overnight futures market. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.30% earlier this morning, a new cycle high and the highest since 2007. On the data front, initial jobless claims fell last week to 239,000, essentially in line with expectations. Yesterday’s release of the July 26 FOMC minutes offered no major surprises. The headlines focused on the statement that most Fed officials saw ‘significant’ upside risks to inflation, but read as a whole, the minutes portrayed a more balanced assessment of growth and inflation risks. This was effectively the tone that Powell conveyed in his press conference following that meeting. Fed fund futures are still pricing less than a 50% chance of another 25 basis point rate hike in 2023.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
8/17/23 Initial Jobless Claims 240k 239k 248k 250k
8/17/23 Continuing Claims 1700k 1716k 1684k
8/17/23 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook -10.4 12 -13.5
8/17/23 Leading Index -0.40% -0.70%
8/18/23 Bloomberg Aug. United States Economic Survey
8/22/23 Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity 1.4
8/22/23 Existing Home Sales 4.15m 4.16m
8/22/23 Existing Home Sales MoM -0.20% -3.30%
8/22/23 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index -9
8/22/23 Richmond Fed Business Conditions -8
8/23/23 MBA Mortgage Applications -0.80%
8/23/23 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 49
8/23/23 S&P Global US Services PMI 52.3
8/23/23 S&P Global US Composite PMI 52
8/23/23 New Home Sales 710k 697k
8/23/23 New Home Sales MoM 1.90% -2.50%
8/23/23 Prelim. Benchmark Revision to Establishment Survey Data
8/24/23 Initial Jobless Claims 239k
8/24/23 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index -0.32
8/24/23 Continuing Claims 1716k
8/24/23 Durable Goods Orders -4.00% 4.60%
8/24/23 Durables Ex Transportation 0.20% 0.50%
8/24/23 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.00% 0.10%
8/24/23 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.10%
8/24/23 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity -11

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