August 18, 2021 Headlines

Treasuries fluctuated between positive and negative territory overnight on mixed economic data from Asia and Europe. U.S. equity futures are unchanged to slightly lower ahead of the open. There are two major global economic themes that have driven market directionality in recent weeks. One theme is the concern of softer demand due to the delta variant and a weakening outlook for China, and another major theme is ongoing supply chain issues fueling near-term inflation. The concern is that these issues ultimately impair consumer confidence and, in turn, consumer spending. On that note, the University of Michigan survey of consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in August to the lowest level in nearly a decade, as reported last Friday. Signs of a reversal of these recent supply/demand themes should be well received by financial markets in the near term (the opposite, of course, it they worsen). The minutes of the July 28 FOMC meeting will be released this afternoon, and Jim Bullard (St. Louis Fed), who has been one of the more hawkish Fed leaders of late (non-voter in 2021), will be speaking later this morning.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

08/16/21Empire Manufacturing28.518.343
08/16/21Total Net TIC Flows$31.5b$105.3b$98.2b
08/16/21Net Long-term TIC Flows$110.9b-$30.2b-$30.0b
08/17/21Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.30%-1.10%0.60%0.70%
08/17/21Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.20%-0.40%1.30%1.60%
08/17/21Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas-0.10%-0.70%1.10%1.30%
08/17/21Retail Sales Control Group-0.20%-1.00%1.10%1.40%
08/17/21Industrial Production MoM0.50%0.90%0.40%0.20%
08/17/21Capacity Utilization75.70%76.10%75.40%
08/17/21Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.70%1.40%-0.10%-0.30%
08/17/21Business Inventories0.80%0.80%0.50%0.60%
08/17/21NAHB Housing Market Index807580
08/18/21MBA Mortgage Applications-3.90%2.80%
08/18/21Housing Starts1600k1534k1643k1650k
08/18/21Building Permits1610k1635k1598k1594k
08/18/21Housing Starts MoM-2.60%-7.00%6.30%3.50%
08/18/21Building Permits MoM1.00%2.60%-5.10%-5.30%
08/18/21Mortgage Delinquencies6.38%
08/18/21MBA Mortgage Foreclosures0.54%
08/18/21FOMC Meeting Minutes
08/19/21Initial Jobless Claims364k375k
08/19/21Continuing Claims2800k2866k
08/19/21Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook23.321.9
08/19/21Langer Consumer Comfort54.6
08/19/21Leading Index0.70%0.70%

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