August 18, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are 3-6 basis points lower across the curve, a modest move by 2022 standards as the market fades some of the recent sell-off. The market seemed to interpret yesterday’s FOMC minutes as modestly dovish, but the part that made headlines was really nothing new relative to what was revealed at the July 27 meeting. More specifically, the minutes notes that “it likely would become appropriate at some point to slow the pace of policy rate increases while assessing the effects of cumulative policy adjustments on economic activity and inflation.”  Powell essentially said the same thing at the July 27 press conference but resisted any commitment to a timeline for any such slowdown given that the decision would be data dependent. The minutes perhaps weren’t as hawkish as some had feared, but a dovish interpretation would be a stretch. In other central bank news, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel made hawkish comments overnight, suggesting more large rate hikes may be necessary to de-anchor inflation expectations even if negative for growth.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
8/18/2022 Initial Jobless Claims 264k 250k 262k 252k
8/18/2022 Continuing Claims 1455k 1437k 1428k 1430k
8/18/2022 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook -5 6.2 -12.3
8/18/2022 Existing Home Sales 4.87m 5.12m
8/18/2022 Existing Home Sales MoM -4.90% -5.40%
8/18/2022 Leading Index -0.50% -0.80%

 

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