Treasury yields are 3-6 basis points lower across the curve, a modest move by 2022 standards as the market fades some of the recent sell-off. The market seemed to interpret yesterday’s FOMC minutes as modestly dovish, but the part that made headlines was really nothing new relative to what was revealed at the July 27 meeting. More specifically, the minutes notes that “it likely would become appropriate at some point to slow the pace of policy rate increases while assessing the effects of cumulative policy adjustments on economic activity and inflation.” Powell essentially said the same thing at the July 27 press conference but resisted any commitment to a timeline for any such slowdown given that the decision would be data dependent. The minutes perhaps weren’t as hawkish as some had feared, but a dovish interpretation would be a stretch. In other central bank news, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel made hawkish comments overnight, suggesting more large rate hikes may be necessary to de-anchor inflation expectations even if negative for growth.
Chief Investment Officer
|8/18/2022||Initial Jobless Claims||264k||250k||262k||252k|
|8/18/2022||Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook||-5||6.2||-12.3||—|
|8/18/2022||Existing Home Sales||4.87m||—||5.12m||—|
|8/18/2022||Existing Home Sales MoM||-4.90%||—||-5.40%||—|
Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.