August 19, 2019 Headlines

Performance in risk markets is improved for a second consecutive day, boosted by positive trade headlines (or at least not negative). Treasury yields are higher and the curve steeper this morning in response to the risk-on trade, as well as reports that the Treasury Department is considering ultra-long bond issuance (potentially 50yr and 100yr maturities). Late Friday Reuters reported that Huawei will receive a 90-day extension from the Commerce Department, and President Trump and other White House officials made positive statements over the weekend with regards to trade discussions, which is certainly not new.

This week’s economic calendar is relatively light with regards to data releases (none scheduled until Wednesday), but there will be closely watched events over the next several days, particularly on the monetary policy front. The minutes of the July 31 FOMC meeting will be closely scrutinized upon release on Wednesday afternoon, and Fed Chair Powell will be speaking at the Jackson Hole symposium on Thursday. The general market expectation is that Powell will set the table for a September rate cut, and many will be listening for any clarification of his “mid-cycle adjustment” characterization following the July 31 FOMC meeting. On the data front, preliminary (flash) August PMI data for the U.S. and other major economies will be released on Thursday.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

8/21/2019MBA Mortgage Applications21.70%
8/21/2019Existing Home Sales5.39m5.27m
8/21/2019Existing Home Sales MoM2.30%-1.70%
8/21/2019FOMC Meeting Minutes
8/22/2019Initial Jobless Claims216k220k
8/22/2019Continuing Claims1726k
8/22/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort61.2
8/22/2019Bloomberg Economic Expectations55
8/22/2019Markit US Manufacturing PMI50.550.4
8/22/2019Markit US Services PMI52.853
8/22/2019Markit US Composite PMI52.6
8/22/2019Leading Index0.20%-0.30%
8/22/2019Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity2-1
8/23/2019New Home Sales645k646k
8/23/2019New Home Sales MoM-0.20%7.00%












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