August 19, 2019 Headlines

Performance in risk markets is improved for a second consecutive day, boosted by positive trade headlines (or at least not negative). Treasury yields are higher and the curve steeper this morning in response to the risk-on trade, as well as reports that the Treasury Department is considering ultra-long bond issuance (potentially 50yr and 100yr maturities). Late Friday Reuters reported that Huawei will receive a 90-day extension from the Commerce Department, and President Trump and other White House officials made positive statements over the weekend with regards to trade discussions, which is certainly not new.

This week’s economic calendar is relatively light with regards to data releases (none scheduled until Wednesday), but there will be closely watched events over the next several days, particularly on the monetary policy front. The minutes of the July 31 FOMC meeting will be closely scrutinized upon release on Wednesday afternoon, and Fed Chair Powell will be speaking at the Jackson Hole symposium on Thursday. The general market expectation is that Powell will set the table for a September rate cut, and many will be listening for any clarification of his “mid-cycle adjustment” characterization following the July 31 FOMC meeting. On the data front, preliminary (flash) August PMI data for the U.S. and other major economies will be released on Thursday.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
8/21/2019 MBA Mortgage Applications 21.70%
8/21/2019 Existing Home Sales 5.39m 5.27m
8/21/2019 Existing Home Sales MoM 2.30% -1.70%
8/21/2019 FOMC Meeting Minutes
8/22/2019 Initial Jobless Claims 216k 220k
8/22/2019 Continuing Claims 1726k
8/22/2019 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 61.2
8/22/2019 Bloomberg Economic Expectations 55
8/22/2019 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 50.5 50.4
8/22/2019 Markit US Services PMI 52.8 53
8/22/2019 Markit US Composite PMI 52.6
8/22/2019 Leading Index 0.20% -0.30%
8/22/2019 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 2 -1
8/23/2019 New Home Sales 645k 646k
8/23/2019 New Home Sales MoM -0.20% 7.00%












Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content. Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First. Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.