August 19, 2020 Headlines

The Treasury curve is modestly lower and flatter for the third consecutive day, and the 2-year/10-year spread has now retraced half of last week’s steepening. S&P 500 futures are little changed ahead of the open after the index hit a new all-time high yesterday. On the fiscal front, reports are surfacing that House Speaker Pelosi may be more open to a smaller piecemeal deal that would include USPS funding, unemployment benefits, and another round of $1,200 household aid checks. The minutes of the July 29 FOMC meeting will be released later this afternoon, which may provide more insights into their progress on the policy framework review project, which may include a shift to average inflation targeting. In this approach, the central bank would be more comfortable with inflation modestly overshooting its 2% target to offset the previous underperformance (i.e., reactive as opposed to proactive policy adjustments).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
8/17/20	NAHB Housing Market Index	74	78	72	—
8/17/20	Empire Manufacturing	15	3.7	17.2	—
8/17/20	Mortgage Delinquencies	—	8.22%	4.36%	—
8/17/20	MBA Mortgage Foreclosures	—	0.68%	0.73%	—
8/17/20	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	$113.0b	$127.0b	$118.1b
8/17/20	Total Net TIC Flows	—	-$67.9b	-$4.5b	-$15.9b
8/18/20	Housing Starts	1245k	1496k	1186k	1220k
8/18/20	Housing Starts MoM	5.00%	22.60%	17.30%	17.50%
8/18/20	Building Permits	1326k	1495k	1241k	1258k
8/18/20	Building Permits MoM	5.40%	18.80%	2.10%	3.50%
8/19/20	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-3.30%	6.80%	—
8/19/20	FOMC Meeting Minutes	—	—	—	—
8/20/20	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	21	—	24.1	—
8/20/20	Initial Jobless Claims	920k	—	963k	—
8/20/20	Continuing Claims	15000k	—	15486k	—
8/20/20	Bloomberg Economic Expectations	—	—	38.5	—
8/20/20	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	43.7	—
8/20/20	Leading Index	1.10%	—	2.00%	—
8/21/20	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	52	—	50.9	—
8/21/20	Markit US Services PMI	51	—	50	—
8/21/20	Markit US Composite PMI	—	—	50.3	—
8/21/20	Existing Home Sales	5.40m	—	4.72m	—
8/21/20	Existing Home Sales MoM	14.40%	—	20.70%	—

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