August 19, 2020 Headlines

The Treasury curve is modestly lower and flatter for the third consecutive day, and the 2-year/10-year spread has now retraced half of last week’s steepening. S&P 500 futures are little changed ahead of the open after the index hit a new all-time high yesterday. On the fiscal front, reports are surfacing that House Speaker Pelosi may be more open to a smaller piecemeal deal that would include USPS funding, unemployment benefits, and another round of $1,200 household aid checks.  The minutes of the July 29 FOMC meeting will be released later this afternoon, which may provide more insights into their progress on the policy framework review project, which may include a shift to average inflation targeting. In this approach, the central bank would be more comfortable with inflation modestly overshooting its 2% target to offset the previous underperformance (i.e., reactive as opposed to proactive policy adjustments).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
8/17/20 NAHB Housing Market Index 74 78 72
8/17/20 Empire Manufacturing 15 3.7 17.2
8/17/20 Mortgage Delinquencies 8.22% 4.36%
8/17/20 MBA Mortgage Foreclosures 0.68% 0.73%
8/17/20 Net Long-term TIC Flows $113.0b $127.0b $118.1b
8/17/20 Total Net TIC Flows -$67.9b -$4.5b -$15.9b
8/18/20 Housing Starts 1245k 1496k 1186k 1220k
8/18/20 Housing Starts MoM 5.00% 22.60% 17.30% 17.50%
8/18/20 Building Permits 1326k 1495k 1241k 1258k
8/18/20 Building Permits MoM 5.40% 18.80% 2.10% 3.50%
8/19/20 MBA Mortgage Applications -3.30% 6.80%
8/19/20 FOMC Meeting Minutes
8/20/20 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 21 24.1
8/20/20 Initial Jobless Claims 920k 963k
8/20/20 Continuing Claims 15000k 15486k
8/20/20 Bloomberg Economic Expectations 38.5
8/20/20 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 43.7
8/20/20 Leading Index 1.10% 2.00%
8/21/20 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 52 50.9
8/21/20 Markit US Services PMI 51 50
8/21/20 Markit US Composite PMI 50.3
8/21/20 Existing Home Sales 5.40m 4.72m
8/21/20 Existing Home Sales MoM 14.40% 20.70%


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