August 19, 2020 Headlines

The Treasury curve is modestly lower and flatter for the third consecutive day, and the 2-year/10-year spread has now retraced half of last week’s steepening. S&P 500 futures are little changed ahead of the open after the index hit a new all-time high yesterday. On the fiscal front, reports are surfacing that House Speaker Pelosi may be more open to a smaller piecemeal deal that would include USPS funding, unemployment benefits, and another round of $1,200 household aid checks.  The minutes of the July 29 FOMC meeting will be released later this afternoon, which may provide more insights into their progress on the policy framework review project, which may include a shift to average inflation targeting. In this approach, the central bank would be more comfortable with inflation modestly overshooting its 2% target to offset the previous underperformance (i.e., reactive as opposed to proactive policy adjustments).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
8/17/20NAHB Housing Market Index747872—
8/17/20Empire Manufacturing153.717.2—
8/17/20Mortgage Delinquencies—8.22%4.36%—
8/17/20MBA Mortgage Foreclosures—0.68%0.73%—
8/17/20Net Long-term TIC Flows—$113.0b$127.0b$118.1b
8/17/20Total Net TIC Flows—-$67.9b-$4.5b-$15.9b
8/18/20Housing Starts1245k1496k1186k1220k
8/18/20Housing Starts MoM5.00%22.60%17.30%17.50%
8/18/20Building Permits1326k1495k1241k1258k
8/18/20Building Permits MoM5.40%18.80%2.10%3.50%
8/19/20MBA Mortgage Applications—-3.30%6.80%—
8/19/20FOMC Meeting Minutes————
8/20/20Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook21—24.1—
8/20/20Initial Jobless Claims920k—963k—
8/20/20Continuing Claims15000k—15486k—
8/20/20Bloomberg Economic Expectations——38.5—
8/20/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort——43.7—
8/20/20Leading Index1.10%—2.00%—
8/21/20Markit US Manufacturing PMI52—50.9—
8/21/20Markit US Services PMI51—50—
8/21/20Markit US Composite PMI——50.3—
8/21/20Existing Home Sales5.40m—4.72m—
8/21/20Existing Home Sales MoM14.40%—20.70%—

 

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