The Treasury curve is modestly lower and flatter for the third consecutive day, and the 2-year/10-year spread has now retraced half of last week’s steepening. S&P 500 futures are little changed ahead of the open after the index hit a new all-time high yesterday. On the fiscal front, reports are surfacing that House Speaker Pelosi may be more open to a smaller piecemeal deal that would include USPS funding, unemployment benefits, and another round of $1,200 household aid checks. The minutes of the July 29 FOMC meeting will be released later this afternoon, which may provide more insights into their progress on the policy framework review project, which may include a shift to average inflation targeting. In this approach, the central bank would be more comfortable with inflation modestly overshooting its 2% target to offset the previous underperformance (i.e., reactive as opposed to proactive policy adjustments).
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
8/17/20 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 74 | 78 | 72 | — |
8/17/20 | Empire Manufacturing | 15 | 3.7 | 17.2 | — |
8/17/20 | Mortgage Delinquencies | — | 8.22% | 4.36% | — |
8/17/20 | MBA Mortgage Foreclosures | — | 0.68% | 0.73% | — |
8/17/20 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | $113.0b | $127.0b | $118.1b |
8/17/20 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | -$67.9b | -$4.5b | -$15.9b |
8/18/20 | Housing Starts | 1245k | 1496k | 1186k | 1220k |
8/18/20 | Housing Starts MoM | 5.00% | 22.60% | 17.30% | 17.50% |
8/18/20 | Building Permits | 1326k | 1495k | 1241k | 1258k |
8/18/20 | Building Permits MoM | 5.40% | 18.80% | 2.10% | 3.50% |
8/19/20 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -3.30% | 6.80% | — |
8/19/20 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
8/20/20 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 21 | — | 24.1 | — |
8/20/20 | Initial Jobless Claims | 920k | — | 963k | — |
8/20/20 | Continuing Claims | 15000k | — | 15486k | — |
8/20/20 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | — | — | 38.5 | — |
8/20/20 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 43.7 | — |
8/20/20 | Leading Index | 1.10% | — | 2.00% | — |
8/21/20 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 52 | — | 50.9 | — |
8/21/20 | Markit US Services PMI | 51 | — | 50 | — |
8/21/20 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 50.3 | — |
8/21/20 | Existing Home Sales | 5.40m | — | 4.72m | — |
8/21/20 | Existing Home Sales MoM | 14.40% | — | 20.70% | — |
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