The Treasury curve bear-steepened in the overnight session following the selloff in Japanese bonds as investors reacted to the Bank of Japan’s new wider target yield range. Equity markets were mixed, with futures on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pointing to higher opens, while the Dow is poised to open lower in addition to selloffs experienced by European and Asian markets. The FOMC meets today and will release its rate decision later this afternoon, the market expects the central bank to keep rates unchanged.

In terms of data releases, the ADP National Employment report showed that US companies added 219,000 new employees in July coming in 33,000 higher than expected. On the housing front, the MBA Mortgage Market index showed a decline in mortgage applications of 2.6%, declining for the third consecutive week, as the impact of higher interest rates appears to have taken out some of the wind of the housing market’s sails.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPrior
07/30/2018Pending Home Sales MoM0.10%0.90%-0.50%
07/30/2018Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-4.00%-2.80%
07/30/2018Dallas Fed Manf. Activity3132.336.5
07/31/2018Personal Income0.40%0.40%0.40%
07/31/2018Personal Spending0.40%0.40%0.20%
07/31/2018Real Personal Spending0.40%0.30%0.00%
07/31/2018PCE Deflator MoM0.10%0.10%0.20%
07/31/2018PCE Deflator YoY2.30%2.20%2.30%
07/31/2018PCE Core MoM0.10%0.10%0.20%
07/31/2018PCE Core YoY2.00%1.90%2.00%
07/31/2018Employment Cost Index0.70%0.60%0.80%
07/31/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.20%0.20%0.20%
07/31/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA6.40%6.51%6.56%
07/31/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index211.94210.17
07/31/2018S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index202.95200.86
07/31/2018S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA6.38%6.41%
07/31/2018Chicago Purchasing Manager6265.564.1
07/31/2018Conf. Board Consumer Confidence126127.4126.4
07/31/2018Conf. Board Present Situation165.9161.1
07/31/2018Conf. Board Expectations101.7103.2
08/01/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-2.60%-0.20%
08/01/2018ADP Employment Change186k219k177k
08/01/2018Markit US Manufacturing PMI55.555.5
08/01/2018Construction Spending MoM0.30%0.40%
08/01/2018ISM Manufacturing59.460.2
08/01/2018ISM Employment56
08/01/2018ISM Prices Paid75.376.8
08/01/2018ISM New Orders63.5
08/01/2018FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)2.00%2.00%
08/01/2018FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1.75%1.75%
08/01/2018Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.00m17.38m
08/02/2018Challenger Job Cuts YoY19.60%
08/02/2018Initial Jobless Claims220k217k
08/02/2018Continuing Claims1750k1745k
08/02/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort59
08/02/2018Factory Orders0.70%0.40%
08/02/2018Factory Orders Ex Trans0.70%
08/02/2018Durable Goods Orders1.00%
08/02/2018Durables Ex Transportation0.40%
08/02/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.60%
08/02/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air1.00%
08/03/2018Trade Balance-$46.5b-$43.1b
08/03/2018Change in Nonfarm Payrolls190k213k
08/03/2018Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
08/03/2018Change in Private Payrolls190k202k
08/03/2018Change in Manufact. Payrolls25k36k
08/03/2018Unemployment Rate3.90%4.00%
08/03/2018Underemployment Rate7.80%
08/03/2018Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.20%
08/03/2018Average Hourly Earnings YoY2.70%2.70%
08/03/2018Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.5
08/03/2018Labor Force Participation Rate62.90%
08/03/2018Markit US Services PMI56.256.2
08/03/2018Markit US Composite PMI55.9
08/03/2018ISM Non-Manf. Composite58.659.1