August 20, 2020 Headlines

A risk-off trade fueled by geopolitical tensions and a rise in jobless claims is pushing long-end Treasury yields and S&P 500 futures lower this morning. President Trump warned of sanctions against China and Russia if those countries block UN sanctions against Iran, which sparked a bid for Treasuries in the overnight session. Initial jobless claims for the week ended August 15 rose to 1.106 million (920k expected), up from 971,000 the prior week. Yesterday’s release of the July FOMC minutes offered no new information on the Fed’s long-term policy framework revisions, but it still sets the stage for a potential announcement in September or November. Also, while yield curve control was discussed again as a potential policy tool, the general takeaway was that it would “likely provide only modest benefits in the current environment.”

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
8/17/20	NAHB Housing Market Index	74	78	72	—
8/17/20	Empire Manufacturing	15	3.7	17.2	—
8/17/20	Mortgage Delinquencies	—	8.22%	4.36%	—
8/17/20	MBA Mortgage Foreclosures	—	0.68%	0.73%	—
8/17/20	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	$113.0b	$127.0b	$118.1b
8/17/20	Total Net TIC Flows	—	-$67.9b	-$4.5b	-$15.9b
8/18/20	Housing Starts	1245k	1496k	1186k	1220k
8/18/20	Housing Starts MoM	5.00%	22.60%	17.30%	17.50%
8/18/20	Building Permits	1326k	1495k	1241k	1258k
8/18/20	Building Permits MoM	5.40%	18.80%	2.10%	3.50%
8/19/20	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-3.30%	6.80%	—
8/19/20	FOMC Meeting Minutes	—	—	—	—
8/20/20	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	20.8	17.2	24.1	—
8/20/20	Initial Jobless Claims	920k	1106k	963k	971k
8/20/20	Continuing Claims	15000k	14844k	15486k	15480k
8/20/20	Bloomberg Economic Expectations	—	—	38.5	—
8/20/20	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	43.7	—
8/20/20	Leading Index	1.10%	—	2.00%	—
8/21/20	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	52	—	50.9	—
8/21/20	Markit US Services PMI	51	—	50	—
8/21/20	Markit US Composite PMI	—	—	50.3	—
8/21/20	Existing Home Sales	5.40m	—	4.72m	—
8/21/20	Existing Home Sales MoM	14.40%	—	20.70%	—

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