A risk-off trade fueled by geopolitical tensions and a rise in jobless claims is pushing long-end Treasury yields and S&P 500 futures lower this morning. President Trump warned of sanctions against China and Russia if those countries block UN sanctions against Iran, which sparked a bid for Treasuries in the overnight session. Initial jobless claims for the week ended August 15 rose to 1.106 million (920k expected), up from 971,000 the prior week. Yesterday’s release of the July FOMC minutes offered no new information on the Fed’s long-term policy framework revisions, but it still sets the stage for a potential announcement in September or November. Also, while yield curve control was discussed again as a potential policy tool, the general takeaway was that it would “likely provide only modest benefits in the current environment.”
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
8/17/20 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 74 | 78 | 72 | — |
8/17/20 | Empire Manufacturing | 15 | 3.7 | 17.2 | — |
8/17/20 | Mortgage Delinquencies | — | 8.22% | 4.36% | — |
8/17/20 | MBA Mortgage Foreclosures | — | 0.68% | 0.73% | — |
8/17/20 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | $113.0b | $127.0b | $118.1b |
8/17/20 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | -$67.9b | -$4.5b | -$15.9b |
8/18/20 | Housing Starts | 1245k | 1496k | 1186k | 1220k |
8/18/20 | Housing Starts MoM | 5.00% | 22.60% | 17.30% | 17.50% |
8/18/20 | Building Permits | 1326k | 1495k | 1241k | 1258k |
8/18/20 | Building Permits MoM | 5.40% | 18.80% | 2.10% | 3.50% |
8/19/20 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -3.30% | 6.80% | — |
8/19/20 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
8/20/20 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 20.8 | 17.2 | 24.1 | — |
8/20/20 | Initial Jobless Claims | 920k | 1106k | 963k | 971k |
8/20/20 | Continuing Claims | 15000k | 14844k | 15486k | 15480k |
8/20/20 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | — | — | 38.5 | — |
8/20/20 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 43.7 | — |
8/20/20 | Leading Index | 1.10% | — | 2.00% | — |
8/21/20 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 52 | — | 50.9 | — |
8/21/20 | Markit US Services PMI | 51 | — | 50 | — |
8/21/20 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 50.3 | — |
8/21/20 | Existing Home Sales | 5.40m | — | 4.72m | — |
8/21/20 | Existing Home Sales MoM | 14.40% | — | 20.70% | — |
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