August 20, 2020 Headlines

A risk-off trade fueled by geopolitical tensions and a rise in jobless claims is pushing long-end Treasury yields and S&P 500 futures lower this morning. President Trump warned of sanctions against China and Russia if those countries block UN sanctions against Iran, which sparked a bid for Treasuries in the overnight session. Initial jobless claims for the week ended August 15 rose to 1.106 million (920k expected), up from 971,000 the prior week. Yesterday’s release of the July FOMC minutes offered no new information on the Fed’s long-term policy framework revisions, but it still sets the stage for a potential announcement in September or November. Also, while yield curve control was discussed again as a potential policy tool, the general takeaway was that it would “likely provide only modest benefits in the current environment.”

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

8/17/20NAHB Housing Market Index747872
8/17/20Empire Manufacturing153.717.2
8/17/20Mortgage Delinquencies8.22%4.36%
8/17/20MBA Mortgage Foreclosures0.68%0.73%
8/17/20Net Long-term TIC Flows$113.0b$127.0b$118.1b
8/17/20Total Net TIC Flows-$67.9b-$4.5b-$15.9b
8/18/20Housing Starts1245k1496k1186k1220k
8/18/20Housing Starts MoM5.00%22.60%17.30%17.50%
8/18/20Building Permits1326k1495k1241k1258k
8/18/20Building Permits MoM5.40%18.80%2.10%3.50%
8/19/20MBA Mortgage Applications-3.30%6.80%
8/19/20FOMC Meeting Minutes
8/20/20Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook20.817.224.1
8/20/20Initial Jobless Claims920k1106k963k971k
8/20/20Continuing Claims15000k14844k15486k15480k
8/20/20Bloomberg Economic Expectations38.5
8/20/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort43.7
8/20/20Leading Index1.10%2.00%
8/21/20Markit US Manufacturing PMI5250.9
8/21/20Markit US Services PMI5150
8/21/20Markit US Composite PMI50.3
8/21/20Existing Home Sales5.40m4.72m
8/21/20Existing Home Sales MoM14.40%20.70%


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