Treasury prices are drifting lower this morning with most global equity markets higher overnight. The move in equities and fixed income over the last 24 hours coincides with a weaker U.S. dollar (USD), which is attributable to two separate factors. In an interview with Reuters yesterday, President Trump criticized Fed leadership for tightening monetary policy. “I’m not thrilled with his raising of interest rates, no. I’m not thrilled,” Trump said in reference to Fed Chair Powell. While U.S. markets are happy to see a pause in the USD rally, any real concerns that the Federal Reserve’s independence might be in jeopardy would spark a strong reaction in financial markets, particularly fixed income. The second (and lesser) catalyst for USD weakness overnight was a headline from a Chinese central bank official saying they would not engage in competitive devaluation of the currency in response to U.S. tariff threats.  In the Reuters interview, President Trump also seemed to downplay this week’s trade talks with China, which somewhat negates a more optimistic view portrayed in a Wall Street Journal article last Friday.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
08/22/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-2.00%
08/22/2018Existing Home Sales5.40m5.38m
08/22/2018Existing Home Sales MoM0.40%-0.60%
08/22/2018FOMC Meeting Minutes
08/23/2018Initial Jobless Claims215k212k
08/23/2018Continuing Claims1735k1721k
08/23/2018FHFA House Price Index MoM0.30%0.20%
08/23/2018House Price Purchase Index QoQ1.70%
08/23/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort58.9
08/23/2018Markit US Manufacturing PMI5555.3
08/23/2018Markit US Services PMI55.856
08/23/2018Markit US Composite PMI55.7
08/23/2018New Home Sales645k631k
08/23/2018New Home Sales MoM2.20%-5.30%
08/23/2018Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity2323
08/24/2018Durable Goods Orders-0.90%0.80%
08/24/2018Durables Ex Transportation0.50%0.20%
08/24/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.20%
08/24/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.30%0.70%