Treasury prices are drifting lower this morning with most global equity markets higher overnight. The move in equities and fixed income over the last 24 hours coincides with a weaker U.S. dollar (USD), which is attributable to two separate factors. In an interview with Reuters yesterday, President Trump criticized Fed leadership for tightening monetary policy. “I’m not thrilled with his raising of interest rates, no. I’m not thrilled,” Trump said in reference to Fed Chair Powell. While U.S. markets are happy to see a pause in the USD rally, any real concerns that the Federal Reserve’s independence might be in jeopardy would spark a strong reaction in financial markets, particularly fixed income. The second (and lesser) catalyst for USD weakness overnight was a headline from a Chinese central bank official saying they would not engage in competitive devaluation of the currency in response to U.S. tariff threats. In the Reuters interview, President Trump also seemed to downplay this week’s trade talks with China, which somewhat negates a more optimistic view portrayed in a Wall Street Journal article last Friday.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 08/22/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -2.00% | — |
| 08/22/2018 | Existing Home Sales | 5.40m | — | 5.38m | — |
| 08/22/2018 | Existing Home Sales MoM | 0.40% | — | -0.60% | — |
| 08/22/2018 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
| 08/23/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 215k | — | 212k | — |
| 08/23/2018 | Continuing Claims | 1735k | — | 1721k | — |
| 08/23/2018 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 08/23/2018 | House Price Purchase Index QoQ | — | — | 1.70% | — |
| 08/23/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 58.9 | — |
| 08/23/2018 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 55 | — | 55.3 | — |
| 08/23/2018 | Markit US Services PMI | 55.8 | — | 56 | — |
| 08/23/2018 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 55.7 | — |
| 08/23/2018 | New Home Sales | 645k | — | 631k | — |
| 08/23/2018 | New Home Sales MoM | 2.20% | — | -5.30% | — |
| 08/23/2018 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 23 | — | 23 | — |
| 08/24/2018 | Durable Goods Orders | -0.90% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 08/24/2018 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.50% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 08/24/2018 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.50% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 08/24/2018 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.30% | — | 0.70% | — |