August 22, 2022 Headlines

Front-end Treasury yields are up another 7 basis points this morning, with the 2-year yield now up to 3.31% ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday. Expectations for the Fed to remain hawkish for an extended time period are keeping intermediate and long-end rates more anchored, pushing the 2-year/10-year Treasury spread 6 basis points flatter on the day. We are not expecting any dovish leanings from Powell this week. He is likely to reaffirm the central bank’s commitment to price stability regardless of any market speculation of emerging recession risks. S&P PMI data for August will be released tomorrow, and the July personal income and spending data will be released on Friday, just ahead of Powell’s 10am EDT speech.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

08/22/22Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index-0.250.27-0.19-0.25
08/23/22S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI51.952.2
08/23/22S&P Global US Services PMI5047.3
08/23/22S&P Global US Composite PMI47.7
08/23/22Richmond Fed Manufact. Index-50
08/23/22New Home Sales575k590k
08/23/22New Home Sales MoM-2.50%-8.10%
08/24/22MBA Mortgage Applications-2.30%
08/24/22Durable Goods Orders0.80%2.00%
08/24/22Durables Ex Transportation0.20%0.40%
08/24/22Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.40%0.70%
08/24/22Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.70%
08/24/22Pending Home Sales MoM-2.10%-8.60%
08/24/22Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-19.80%
08/25/22Initial Jobless Claims252k250k
08/25/22GDP Annualized QoQ-0.70%-0.90%
08/25/22Continuing Claims1441k1437k
08/25/22Personal Consumption1.50%1.00%
08/25/22GDP Price Index8.70%8.70%
08/25/22Core PCE QoQ4.40%4.40%
08/25/22Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity913
08/26/22Advance Goods Trade Balance-$98.1b-$98.2b-$98.6b
08/26/22Wholesale Inventories MoM1.30%1.80%
08/26/22Personal Income0.60%0.60%
08/26/22Personal Spending0.40%1.10%
08/26/22Retail Inventories MoM2.00%
08/26/22Real Personal Spending0.40%0.10%
08/26/22PCE Deflator MoM0.10%1.00%
08/26/22PCE Deflator YoY6.40%6.80%
08/26/22PCE Core Deflator MoM0.20%0.60%
08/26/22PCE Core Deflator YoY4.70%4.80%
08/26/22U. of Mich. Sentiment55.455.1
08/26/22U. of Mich. Current Conditions55.5
08/26/22U. of Mich. Expectations54.9
08/26/22U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation5.00%
08/26/22U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%


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