There’s a modest risk-off trade in the global markets today following yesterday’s reports regarding Manafort and Cohen. Treasury prices are higher across the curve, with the 10-year yield approaching 2.8%, and S&P 500 futures are currently down 9 points. Assuming no major political headlines drop, today’s focus will be on this afternoon’s release of the August 1 FOMC minutes. Market participants, in general, are more focused on discussions related to balance sheet reduction, and for depository institutions and money market investors, the future relationship between the interest rate paid on excess reserves (IOER) and the Fed’s target fed funds rate. Regarding the latter, any staff discussion of demand for bank reserves in the context of post-crisis bank regulations (namely HQLA requirements) will be of particular interest. July existing home sales data will be released later this morning. Recent housing data has been softer amid higher mortgage rates, but many housing analysts feel the overall fundamentals remain sound, at least on a national basis.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 08/22/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 4.20% | -2.00% | — |
| 08/22/2018 | Existing Home Sales | 5.40m | — | 5.38m | — |
| 08/22/2018 | Existing Home Sales MoM | 0.40% | — | -0.60% | — |
| 08/22/2018 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
| 08/23/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 215k | — | 212k | — |
| 08/23/2018 | Continuing Claims | 1730k | — | 1721k | — |
| 08/23/2018 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 08/23/2018 | House Price Purchase Index QoQ | — | — | 1.70% | — |
| 08/23/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 58.9 | — |
| 08/23/2018 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 55 | — | 55.3 | — |
| 08/23/2018 | Markit US Services PMI | 55.8 | — | 56 | — |
| 08/23/2018 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 55.7 | — |
| 08/23/2018 | New Home Sales | 645k | — | 631k | — |
| 08/23/2018 | New Home Sales MoM | 2.20% | — | -5.30% | — |
| 08/23/2018 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 23 | — | 23 | — |
| 08/24/2018 | Durable Goods Orders | -1.00% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 08/24/2018 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.50% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 08/24/2018 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.50% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 08/24/2018 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.30% | — | 0.70% | — |