There’s a modest risk-off trade in the global markets today following yesterday’s reports regarding Manafort and Cohen. Treasury prices are higher across the curve, with the 10-year yield approaching 2.8%, and S&P 500 futures are currently down 9 points. Assuming no major political headlines drop, today’s focus will be on this afternoon’s release of the August 1 FOMC minutes. Market participants, in general, are more focused on discussions related to balance sheet reduction, and for depository institutions and money market investors, the future relationship between the interest rate paid on excess reserves (IOER) and the Fed’s target fed funds rate. Regarding the latter, any staff discussion of demand for bank reserves in the context of post-crisis bank regulations (namely HQLA requirements) will be of particular interest. July existing home sales data will be released later this morning. Recent housing data has been softer amid higher mortgage rates, but many housing analysts feel the overall fundamentals remain sound, at least on a national basis.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
08/22/2018MBA Mortgage Applications4.20%-2.00%
08/22/2018Existing Home Sales5.40m5.38m
08/22/2018Existing Home Sales MoM0.40%-0.60%
08/22/2018FOMC Meeting Minutes
08/23/2018Initial Jobless Claims215k212k
08/23/2018Continuing Claims1730k1721k
08/23/2018FHFA House Price Index MoM0.30%0.20%
08/23/2018House Price Purchase Index QoQ1.70%
08/23/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort58.9
08/23/2018Markit US Manufacturing PMI5555.3
08/23/2018Markit US Services PMI55.856
08/23/2018Markit US Composite PMI55.7
08/23/2018New Home Sales645k631k
08/23/2018New Home Sales MoM2.20%-5.30%
08/23/2018Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity2323
08/24/2018Durable Goods Orders-1.00%0.80%
08/24/2018Durables Ex Transportation0.50%0.20%
08/24/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.20%
08/24/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.30%0.70%