August 23, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are modestly higher and steeper to start the morning following another light trading session overnight. The 2-year yield is now at 3.32% as short-term rate futures now price for a 3.75% terminal fed funds rate in 2023 and a year-end 2023 rate of 3.41%. The latter is up 35 bps from two weeks ago. The 2-year/10-year Treasury spread is another 3 basis points higher today to -0.27% and 23 basis points steeper since the recent low on August 9. Eurozone composite PMI (S&P) fell to an 18-month low of 49.2 in August, and Germany’s composite reading fell to a 26-month low of 47.6. U.S. PMI data will be released later this morning. In housing news, Zillow reported a 0.1% decline in home values in July, the first monthly decline since 2012 according to the company’s records.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

8/23/2022S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI51.852.2
8/23/2022S&P Global US Services PMI49.847.3
8/23/2022S&P Global US Composite PMI47.7
8/23/2022Richmond Fed Manufact. Index-20
8/23/2022New Home Sales575k590k
8/23/2022New Home Sales MoM-2.50%-8.10%
8/24/2022MBA Mortgage Applications-2.30%
8/24/2022Durable Goods Orders0.80%2.00%
8/24/2022Durables Ex Transportation0.20%0.40%
8/24/2022Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.30%0.70%
8/24/2022Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.70%
8/24/2022Pending Home Sales MoM-2.80%-8.60%
8/24/2022Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-21.40%-19.80%
8/25/2022Initial Jobless Claims252k250k
8/25/2022GDP Annualized QoQ-0.70%-0.90%
8/25/2022Continuing Claims1441k1437k
8/25/2022Personal Consumption1.50%1.00%
8/25/2022GDP Price Index8.70%8.70%
8/25/2022Core PCE QoQ4.40%4.40%
8/25/2022Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity913
8/26/2022Advance Goods Trade Balance-$98.5b-$98.2b-$98.6b
8/26/2022Wholesale Inventories MoM1.30%1.80%
8/26/2022Personal Income0.60%0.60%
8/26/2022Personal Spending0.50%1.10%
8/26/2022Retail Inventories MoM1.30%2.00%
8/26/2022Real Personal Spending0.40%0.10%
8/26/2022PCE Deflator MoM0.00%1.00%
8/26/2022PCE Deflator YoY6.40%6.80%
8/26/2022PCE Core Deflator MoM0.20%0.60%
8/26/2022PCE Core Deflator YoY4.70%4.80%
8/26/2022U. of Mich. Sentiment55.355.1
8/26/2022U. of Mich. Current Conditions55.5
8/26/2022U. of Mich. Expectations54.9
8/26/2022U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation5.00%
8/26/2022U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%3.00%
8/29/2022Dallas Fed Manf. Activity-12.3-22.6
8/30/2022FHFA House Price Index MoM0.80%1.40%
8/30/2022House Price Purchase Index QoQ4.60%
8/30/2022S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.80%1.32%
8/30/2022S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA20.50%
8/30/2022S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA19.75%
8/30/2022Conf. Board Consumer Confidence97.595.7
8/30/2022Conf. Board Present Situation141.3
8/30/2022Conf. Board Expectations65.3
8/30/2022JOLTS Job Openings10698k


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