August 23, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are modestly higher and steeper to start the morning following another light trading session overnight. The 2-year yield is now at 3.32% as short-term rate futures now price for a 3.75% terminal fed funds rate in 2023 and a year-end 2023 rate of 3.41%. The latter is up 35 bps from two weeks ago. The 2-year/10-year Treasury spread is another 3 basis points higher today to -0.27% and 23 basis points steeper since the recent low on August 9. Eurozone composite PMI (S&P) fell to an 18-month low of 49.2 in August, and Germany’s composite reading fell to a 26-month low of 47.6. U.S. PMI data will be released later this morning. In housing news, Zillow reported a 0.1% decline in home values in July, the first monthly decline since 2012 according to the company’s records.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
8/23/2022	S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI	51.8	—	52.2	—
8/23/2022	S&P Global US Services PMI	49.8	—	47.3	—
8/23/2022	S&P Global US Composite PMI	—	—	47.7	—
8/23/2022	Richmond Fed Manufact. Index	-2	—	0	—
8/23/2022	New Home Sales	575k	—	590k	—
8/23/2022	New Home Sales MoM	-2.50%	—	-8.10%	—
8/24/2022	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-2.30%	—
8/24/2022	Durable Goods Orders	0.80%	—	2.00%	—
8/24/2022	Durables Ex Transportation	0.20%	—	0.40%	—
8/24/2022	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	0.30%	—	0.70%	—
8/24/2022	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	0.50%	—	0.70%	—
8/24/2022	Pending Home Sales MoM	-2.80%	—	-8.60%	—
8/24/2022	Pending Home Sales NSA YoY	-21.40%	—	-19.80%	—
8/25/2022	Initial Jobless Claims	252k	—	250k	—
8/25/2022	GDP Annualized QoQ	-0.70%	—	-0.90%	—
8/25/2022	Continuing Claims	1441k	—	1437k	—
8/25/2022	Personal Consumption	1.50%	—	1.00%	—
8/25/2022	GDP Price Index	8.70%	—	8.70%	—
8/25/2022	Core PCE QoQ	4.40%	—	4.40%	—
8/25/2022	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity	9	—	13	—
8/26/2022	Advance Goods Trade Balance	-$98.5b	—	-$98.2b	-$98.6b
8/26/2022	Wholesale Inventories MoM	1.30%	—	1.80%	—
8/26/2022	Personal Income	0.60%	—	0.60%	—
8/26/2022	Personal Spending	0.50%	—	1.10%	—
8/26/2022	Retail Inventories MoM	1.30%	—	2.00%	—
8/26/2022	Real Personal Spending	0.40%	—	0.10%	—
8/26/2022	PCE Deflator MoM	0.00%	—	1.00%	—
8/26/2022	PCE Deflator YoY	6.40%	—	6.80%	—
8/26/2022	PCE Core Deflator MoM	0.20%	—	0.60%	—
8/26/2022	PCE Core Deflator YoY	4.70%	—	4.80%	—
8/26/2022	U. of Mich. Sentiment	55.3	—	55.1	—
8/26/2022	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	—	—	55.5	—
8/26/2022	U. of Mich. Expectations	—	—	54.9	—
8/26/2022	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	5.00%	—
8/26/2022	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	3.00%	—	3.00%	—
8/29/2022	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	-12.3	—	-22.6	—
8/30/2022	FHFA House Price Index MoM	0.80%	—	1.40%	—
8/30/2022	House Price Purchase Index QoQ	—	—	4.60%	—
8/30/2022	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA	0.80%	—	1.32%	—
8/30/2022	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA	—	—	20.50%	—
8/30/2022	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA	—	—	19.75%	—
8/30/2022	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence	97.5	—	95.7	—
8/30/2022	Conf. Board Present Situation	—	—	141.3	—
8/30/2022	Conf. Board Expectations	—	—	65.3	—
8/30/2022	JOLTS Job Openings	—	—	10698k	—

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