August 23, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are modestly higher and steeper to start the morning following another light trading session overnight. The 2-year yield is now at 3.32% as short-term rate futures now price for a 3.75% terminal fed funds rate in 2023 and a year-end 2023 rate of 3.41%. The latter is up 35 bps from two weeks ago. The 2-year/10-year Treasury spread is another 3 basis points higher today to -0.27% and 23 basis points steeper since the recent low on August 9. Eurozone composite PMI (S&P) fell to an 18-month low of 49.2 in August, and Germany’s composite reading fell to a 26-month low of 47.6. U.S. PMI data will be released later this morning. In housing news, Zillow reported a 0.1% decline in home values in July, the first monthly decline since 2012 according to the company’s records.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
8/23/2022 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 51.8 52.2
8/23/2022 S&P Global US Services PMI 49.8 47.3
8/23/2022 S&P Global US Composite PMI 47.7
8/23/2022 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index -2 0
8/23/2022 New Home Sales 575k 590k
8/23/2022 New Home Sales MoM -2.50% -8.10%
8/24/2022 MBA Mortgage Applications -2.30%
8/24/2022 Durable Goods Orders 0.80% 2.00%
8/24/2022 Durables Ex Transportation 0.20% 0.40%
8/24/2022 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.30% 0.70%
8/24/2022 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.50% 0.70%
8/24/2022 Pending Home Sales MoM -2.80% -8.60%
8/24/2022 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY -21.40% -19.80%
8/25/2022 Initial Jobless Claims 252k 250k
8/25/2022 GDP Annualized QoQ -0.70% -0.90%
8/25/2022 Continuing Claims 1441k 1437k
8/25/2022 Personal Consumption 1.50% 1.00%
8/25/2022 GDP Price Index 8.70% 8.70%
8/25/2022 Core PCE QoQ 4.40% 4.40%
8/25/2022 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 9 13
8/26/2022 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$98.5b -$98.2b -$98.6b
8/26/2022 Wholesale Inventories MoM 1.30% 1.80%
8/26/2022 Personal Income 0.60% 0.60%
8/26/2022 Personal Spending 0.50% 1.10%
8/26/2022 Retail Inventories MoM 1.30% 2.00%
8/26/2022 Real Personal Spending 0.40% 0.10%
8/26/2022 PCE Deflator MoM 0.00% 1.00%
8/26/2022 PCE Deflator YoY 6.40% 6.80%
8/26/2022 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.20% 0.60%
8/26/2022 PCE Core Deflator YoY 4.70% 4.80%
8/26/2022 U. of Mich. Sentiment 55.3 55.1
8/26/2022 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 55.5
8/26/2022 U. of Mich. Expectations 54.9
8/26/2022 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 5.00%
8/26/2022 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 3.00% 3.00%
8/29/2022 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity -12.3 -22.6
8/30/2022 FHFA House Price Index MoM 0.80% 1.40%
8/30/2022 House Price Purchase Index QoQ 4.60%
8/30/2022 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 0.80% 1.32%
8/30/2022 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 20.50%
8/30/2022 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 19.75%
8/30/2022 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 97.5 95.7
8/30/2022 Conf. Board Present Situation 141.3
8/30/2022 Conf. Board Expectations 65.3
8/30/2022 JOLTS Job Openings 10698k


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