A mild risk-on trade overnight has Treasury yields slightly higher out the curve to start the day. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi continues to negotiate with moderate Democrats over how to move forward with President Biden’s spending initiatives, including a $3.5 trillion budget resolution and the $550 billion infrastructure package recently passed in the Senate. Centrist members want to move forward with the infrastructure bill now and are threatening to withhold support for the larger budget resolution until it is put up for a vote. The goal for Democrat leaders in both the House and Senate is to pass the larger budget resolution through reconciliation, which could be done with no Republican support in the Senate assuming all Democrats vote for it. In the meantime, the debt ceiling expired on July 31, and the Treasury Department should be able to continue operating without an extension for another 2-3 months using extraordinary measures. However, the reduction in T-bill issuance until the ceiling is lifted while the Fed continues to pump in liquidity puts continued pressure on the money market complex already struggling with supply/demand imbalances.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
08/23/21 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.12 | 0.53 | 0.09 | -0.01 |
08/23/21 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 62 | 61.2 | 63.4 | — |
08/23/21 | Markit US Services PMI | 59.2 | 55.2 | 59.9 | — |
08/23/21 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 55.4 | 59.9 | — |
08/23/21 | Existing Home Sales | 5.83m | 5.99m | 5.86m | 5.87m |
08/23/21 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -0.50% | 2.00% | 1.40% | 1.60% |
08/24/21 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 24 | — | 27 | — |
08/24/21 | New Home Sales | 697k | — | 676k | — |
08/24/21 | New Home Sales MoM | 3.10% | — | -6.60% | — |
08/25/21 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -3.90% | — |
08/25/21 | Durable Goods Orders | -0.30% | — | 0.90% | — |
08/25/21 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.50% | — | 0.50% | — |
08/25/21 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.50% | — | 0.70% | — |
08/25/21 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.70% | — | 0.60% | — |
08/26/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 350k | — | 348k | — |
08/26/21 | Continuing Claims | 2764k | — | 2820k | — |
08/26/21 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 6.70% | — | 6.50% | — |
08/26/21 | Personal Consumption | 12.20% | — | 11.80% | — |
08/26/21 | GDP Price Index | 6.00% | — | 6.00% | — |
08/26/21 | Core PCE QoQ | 6.10% | — | 6.10% | — |
08/26/21 | Langer Consumer Comfort | — | — | 56.5 | — |
08/26/21 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 25 | — | 30 | — |
08/27/21 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$90.9b | — | -$91.2b | — |
08/27/21 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 1.00% | — | 1.10% | — |
08/27/21 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
08/27/21 | Personal Income | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
08/27/21 | Personal Spending | 0.40% | — | 1.00% | — |
08/27/21 | Real Personal Spending | 0.00% | — | 0.50% | — |
08/27/21 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.50% | — |
08/27/21 | PCE Deflator YoY | 4.10% | — | 4.00% | — |
08/27/21 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
08/27/21 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 3.60% | — | 3.50% | — |
08/27/21 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 70.8 | — | 70.2 | — |
08/27/21 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 77.9 | — |
08/27/21 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 65.2 | — |
08/27/21 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 4.60% | — |
08/27/21 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 3.00% | — |
Subscribe Today!
Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.