August 24, 2021 Headlines

A mild risk-on trade overnight has Treasury yields slightly higher out the curve to start the day. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi continues to negotiate with moderate Democrats over how to move forward with President Biden’s spending initiatives, including a $3.5 trillion budget resolution and the $550 billion infrastructure package recently passed in the Senate. Centrist members want to move forward with the infrastructure bill now and are threatening to withhold support for the larger budget resolution until it is put up for a vote. The goal for Democrat leaders in both the House and Senate is to pass the larger budget resolution through reconciliation, which could be done with no Republican support in the Senate assuming all Democrats vote for it. In the meantime, the debt ceiling expired on July 31, and the Treasury Department should be able to continue operating without an extension for another 2-3 months using extraordinary measures. However, the reduction in T-bill issuance until the ceiling is lifted while the Fed continues to pump in liquidity puts continued pressure on the money market complex already struggling with supply/demand imbalances.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
08/23/21	Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index	0.12	0.53	0.09	-0.01
08/23/21	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	62	61.2	63.4	—
08/23/21	Markit US Services PMI	59.2	55.2	59.9	—
08/23/21	Markit US Composite PMI	—	55.4	59.9	—
08/23/21	Existing Home Sales	5.83m	5.99m	5.86m	5.87m
08/23/21	Existing Home Sales MoM	-0.50%	2.00%	1.40%	1.60%
08/24/21	Richmond Fed Manufact. Index	24	—	27	—
08/24/21	New Home Sales	697k	—	676k	—
08/24/21	New Home Sales MoM	3.10%	—	-6.60%	—
08/25/21	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-3.90%	—
08/25/21	Durable Goods Orders	-0.30%	—	0.90%	—
08/25/21	Durables Ex Transportation	0.50%	—	0.50%	—
08/25/21	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	0.50%	—	0.70%	—
08/25/21	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	0.70%	—	0.60%	—
08/26/21	Initial Jobless Claims	350k	—	348k	—
08/26/21	Continuing Claims	2764k	—	2820k	—
08/26/21	GDP Annualized QoQ	6.70%	—	6.50%	—
08/26/21	Personal Consumption	12.20%	—	11.80%	—
08/26/21	GDP Price Index	6.00%	—	6.00%	—
08/26/21	Core PCE QoQ	6.10%	—	6.10%	—
08/26/21	Langer Consumer Comfort	—	—	56.5	—
08/26/21	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity	25	—	30	—
08/27/21	Advance Goods Trade Balance	-$90.9b	—	-$91.2b	—
08/27/21	Wholesale Inventories MoM	1.00%	—	1.10%	—
08/27/21	Retail Inventories MoM	0.30%	—	0.30%	—
08/27/21	Personal Income	0.30%	—	0.10%	—
08/27/21	Personal Spending	0.40%	—	1.00%	—
08/27/21	Real Personal Spending	0.00%	—	0.50%	—
08/27/21	PCE Deflator MoM	0.40%	—	0.50%	—
08/27/21	PCE Deflator YoY	4.10%	—	4.00%	—
08/27/21	PCE Core Deflator MoM	0.30%	—	0.40%	—
08/27/21	PCE Core Deflator YoY	3.60%	—	3.50%	—
08/27/21	U. of Mich. Sentiment	70.8	—	70.2	—
08/27/21	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	—	—	77.9	—
08/27/21	U. of Mich. Expectations	—	—	65.2	—
08/27/21	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	4.60%	—
08/27/21	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	3.00%	—

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