August 24, 2022 Headlines

The fixed income market remains very quiet ahead of Friday’s Jackson Hole speech. Treasury yields are essentially unchanged across the curve, and S&P 500 futures are up 21 basis points an hour ahead of the open. The typically-dovish Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed) said yesterday the Fed must continue to act to bring down “very high inflation,” particularly while the economy is at maximum employment. Unanchored inflation expectations would lead to “very bad outcomes that cause us to be very aggressive – Volcker-esque – to re-anchor them,” said Kashkari. Whispers in the bond market this week are for a 75 basis point hike in September, even if not fully priced in yet. On the supply chain front, major retailers, who were scrambling to find truck trailers to ship goods during the pandemic, are now using them as storage containers for excess inventory, according to a Wall Street Journal article. The move is partly in response to reduced warehouse capacity and rising leasing costs, while keeping supply chains more nimble amid greater economic uncertainty.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
8/24/2022 MBA Mortgage Applications -1.20% -2.30%
8/24/2022 Durable Goods Orders 0.80% 0.00% 2.00% 2.20%
8/24/2022 Durables Ex Transportation 0.20% 0.30% 0.40% 0.30%
8/24/2022 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.30% 0.40% 0.70% 0.90%
8/24/2022 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.50% 0.70% 0.70% 0.80%
8/24/2022 Pending Home Sales MoM -2.60% -8.60%
8/24/2022 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY -21.40% -19.80%
8/25/2022 Initial Jobless Claims 252k 250k
8/25/2022 Continuing Claims 1441k 1437k
8/25/2022 GDP Annualized QoQ -0.70% -0.90%
8/25/2022 Personal Consumption 1.50% 1.00%
8/25/2022 GDP Price Index 8.70% 8.70%
8/25/2022 Core PCE QoQ 4.40% 4.40%
8/25/2022 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 10 13
8/26/2022 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$98.5b -$98.2b -$98.6b
8/26/2022 Wholesale Inventories MoM 1.30% 1.80%
8/26/2022 Retail Inventories MoM 1.30% 2.00%
8/26/2022 Personal Income 0.60% 0.60%
8/26/2022 Personal Spending 0.50% 1.10%
8/26/2022 Real Personal Spending 0.40% 0.10%
8/26/2022 PCE Deflator MoM 0.00% 1.00%
8/26/2022 PCE Deflator YoY 6.40% 6.80%
8/26/2022 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.20% 0.60%
8/26/2022 PCE Core Deflator YoY 4.70% 4.80%
8/26/2022 U. of Mich. Sentiment 55.3 55.1
8/26/2022 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 55.5
8/26/2022 U. of Mich. Expectations 54.9
8/26/2022 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 5.00%
8/26/2022 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 3.00% 3.00%

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