August 25, 2021 Headlines

Financial markets appear to be settled in a holding pattern ahead of Friday’s Jackson Hole speech, with equity futures and Treasuries little changed to start the day. House Speaker Pelosi reportedly reached a deal with a group of moderate Democrats and is poised to pass both the $3.5 trillion spending (reconciliation) bill and the Senate’s infrastructure bill. Mortgage application activity rose 1.6% last week according to the weekly Mortgage Bankers Association index. Purchase application activity rose 3% versus the prior week, and refi activity was up a more modest 0.9%, although refinancing still accounted for 67.3% of all applications for the week. The MBA reported the average 30-year and 15-year fixed mortgage rates both down 3 basis points from the prior week.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
08/23/21	Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index	0.12	0.53	0.09	-0.01
08/23/21	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	62	61.2	63.4	—
08/23/21	Markit US Services PMI	59.2	55.2	59.9	—
08/23/21	Markit US Composite PMI	—	55.4	59.9	—
08/23/21	Existing Home Sales	5.83m	5.99m	5.86m	5.87m
08/23/21	Existing Home Sales MoM	-0.50%	2.00%	1.40%	1.60%
08/24/21	Richmond Fed Manufact. Index	24	9	27	—
08/24/21	New Home Sales	697k	708k	676k	701k
08/24/21	New Home Sales MoM	3.10%	1.00%	-6.60%	-2.60%
08/25/21	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	1.60%	-3.90%	-3.90%
08/25/21	Durable Goods Orders	-0.30%	—	0.90%	—
08/25/21	Durables Ex Transportation	0.50%	—	0.50%	—
08/25/21	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	0.50%	—	0.70%	—
08/25/21	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	0.70%	—	0.60%	—
08/26/21	Initial Jobless Claims	350k	—	348k	—
08/26/21	Continuing Claims	2764k	—	2820k	—
08/26/21	GDP Annualized QoQ	6.70%	—	6.50%	—
08/26/21	Personal Consumption	12.20%	—	11.80%	—
08/26/21	GDP Price Index	6.00%	—	6.00%	—
08/26/21	Core PCE QoQ	6.10%	—	6.10%	—
08/26/21	Langer Consumer Comfort	—	—	56.5	—
08/26/21	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity	25	—	30	—
08/27/21	Advance Goods Trade Balance	-$90.9b	—	-$91.2b	—
08/27/21	Wholesale Inventories MoM	1.00%	—	1.10%	—
08/27/21	Retail Inventories MoM	0.30%	—	0.30%	—
08/27/21	Personal Income	0.30%	—	0.10%	—
08/27/21	Personal Spending	0.40%	—	1.00%	—
08/27/21	Real Personal Spending	0.00%	—	0.50%	—
08/27/21	PCE Deflator MoM	0.40%	—	0.50%	—
08/27/21	PCE Deflator YoY	4.10%	—	4.00%	—
08/27/21	PCE Core Deflator MoM	0.30%	—	0.40%	—
08/27/21	PCE Core Deflator YoY	3.60%	—	3.50%	—
08/27/21	U. of Mich. Sentiment	70.8	—	70.2	—
08/27/21	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	—	—	77.9	—
08/27/21	U. of Mich. Expectations	—	—	65.2	—
08/27/21	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	4.60%	—
08/27/21	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	3.00%	—

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