August 25, 2021 Headlines

Financial markets appear to be settled in a holding pattern ahead of Friday’s Jackson Hole speech, with equity futures and Treasuries little changed to start the day. House Speaker Pelosi reportedly reached a deal with a group of moderate Democrats and is poised to pass both the $3.5 trillion spending (reconciliation) bill and the Senate’s infrastructure bill. Mortgage application activity rose 1.6% last week according to the weekly Mortgage Bankers Association index. Purchase application activity rose 3% versus the prior week, and refi activity was up a more modest 0.9%, although refinancing still accounted for 67.3% of all applications for the week. The MBA reported the average 30-year and 15-year fixed mortgage rates both down 3 basis points from the prior week. 

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

08/23/21Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.120.530.09-0.01
08/23/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI6261.263.4
08/23/21Markit US Services PMI59.255.259.9
08/23/21Markit US Composite PMI55.459.9
08/23/21Existing Home Sales5.83m5.99m5.86m5.87m
08/23/21Existing Home Sales MoM-0.50%2.00%1.40%1.60%
08/24/21Richmond Fed Manufact. Index24927
08/24/21New Home Sales697k708k676k701k
08/24/21New Home Sales MoM3.10%1.00%-6.60%-2.60%
08/25/21MBA Mortgage Applications1.60%-3.90%-3.90%
08/25/21Durable Goods Orders-0.30%0.90%
08/25/21Durables Ex Transportation0.50%0.50%
08/25/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.70%
08/25/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.70%0.60%
08/26/21Initial Jobless Claims350k348k
08/26/21Continuing Claims2764k2820k
08/26/21GDP Annualized QoQ6.70%6.50%
08/26/21Personal Consumption12.20%11.80%
08/26/21GDP Price Index6.00%6.00%
08/26/21Core PCE QoQ6.10%6.10%
08/26/21Langer Consumer Comfort56.5
08/26/21Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity2530
08/27/21Advance Goods Trade Balance-$90.9b-$91.2b
08/27/21Wholesale Inventories MoM1.00%1.10%
08/27/21Retail Inventories MoM0.30%0.30%
08/27/21Personal Income0.30%0.10%
08/27/21Personal Spending0.40%1.00%
08/27/21Real Personal Spending0.00%0.50%
08/27/21PCE Deflator MoM0.40%0.50%
08/27/21PCE Deflator YoY4.10%4.00%
08/27/21PCE Core Deflator MoM0.30%0.40%
08/27/21PCE Core Deflator YoY3.60%3.50%
08/27/21U. of Mich. Sentiment70.870.2
08/27/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions77.9
08/27/21U. of Mich. Expectations65.2
08/27/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.60%
08/27/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%


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