Financial markets appear to be settled in a holding pattern ahead of Friday’s Jackson Hole speech, with equity futures and Treasuries little changed to start the day. House Speaker Pelosi reportedly reached a deal with a group of moderate Democrats and is poised to pass both the $3.5 trillion spending (reconciliation) bill and the Senate’s infrastructure bill. Mortgage application activity rose 1.6% last week according to the weekly Mortgage Bankers Association index. Purchase application activity rose 3% versus the prior week, and refi activity was up a more modest 0.9%, although refinancing still accounted for 67.3% of all applications for the week. The MBA reported the average 30-year and 15-year fixed mortgage rates both down 3 basis points from the prior week.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
08/23/21 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.12 | 0.53 | 0.09 | -0.01 |
08/23/21 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 62 | 61.2 | 63.4 | — |
08/23/21 | Markit US Services PMI | 59.2 | 55.2 | 59.9 | — |
08/23/21 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 55.4 | 59.9 | — |
08/23/21 | Existing Home Sales | 5.83m | 5.99m | 5.86m | 5.87m |
08/23/21 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -0.50% | 2.00% | 1.40% | 1.60% |
08/24/21 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 24 | 9 | 27 | — |
08/24/21 | New Home Sales | 697k | 708k | 676k | 701k |
08/24/21 | New Home Sales MoM | 3.10% | 1.00% | -6.60% | -2.60% |
08/25/21 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 1.60% | -3.90% | -3.90% |
08/25/21 | Durable Goods Orders | -0.30% | — | 0.90% | — |
08/25/21 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.50% | — | 0.50% | — |
08/25/21 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.50% | — | 0.70% | — |
08/25/21 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.70% | — | 0.60% | — |
08/26/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 350k | — | 348k | — |
08/26/21 | Continuing Claims | 2764k | — | 2820k | — |
08/26/21 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 6.70% | — | 6.50% | — |
08/26/21 | Personal Consumption | 12.20% | — | 11.80% | — |
08/26/21 | GDP Price Index | 6.00% | — | 6.00% | — |
08/26/21 | Core PCE QoQ | 6.10% | — | 6.10% | — |
08/26/21 | Langer Consumer Comfort | — | — | 56.5 | — |
08/26/21 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 25 | — | 30 | — |
08/27/21 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$90.9b | — | -$91.2b | — |
08/27/21 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 1.00% | — | 1.10% | — |
08/27/21 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
08/27/21 | Personal Income | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
08/27/21 | Personal Spending | 0.40% | — | 1.00% | — |
08/27/21 | Real Personal Spending | 0.00% | — | 0.50% | — |
08/27/21 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.50% | — |
08/27/21 | PCE Deflator YoY | 4.10% | — | 4.00% | — |
08/27/21 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
08/27/21 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 3.60% | — | 3.50% | — |
08/27/21 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 70.8 | — | 70.2 | — |
08/27/21 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 77.9 | — |
08/27/21 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 65.2 | — |
08/27/21 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 4.60% | — |
08/27/21 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 3.00% | — |
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