August 26, 2020 Headlines

The US Treasury curve bear steepened overnight as record setting sovereign supply and low volume weighted on long-end yields. At the open, the 10-year yield is up 3.5 bps to .71% and more supply is on the way with a $51 billion 5-year auction later today. Tomorrow, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak at the annual Jackson Hole symposium about the central bank’s monetary policy framework. Headlines expect Powell to use the speech to introduce a shift in policy to average inflation targeting and set the stage for change in the upcoming September meeting. The Federal Reserve has traditionally targeted a 2% inflation rate but under the new framework, inflation would be allowed to overshoot the target to make up for past underperformance. 

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

8/24/20Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index3.
8/25/20FHFA House Price Index MoM0.30%0.90%-0.30%-0.20%
8/25/20House Price Purchase Index QoQ0.80%1.70%
8/25/20S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.10%0.00%0.04%-0.03%
8/25/20S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA3.60%3.46%3.69%3.61%
8/25/20S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index225.13224.76224.6
8/25/20S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA4.29%4.46%4.32%
8/25/20S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index219.82218.87218.6
8/25/20Conf. Board Consumer Confidence9384.892.691.7
8/25/20Conf. Board Present Situation84.294.295.9
8/25/20Conf. Board Expectations85.291.588.9
8/25/20New Home Sales790k901k776k791k
8/25/20New Home Sales MoM1.80%13.90%13.80%15.10%
8/25/20Richmond Fed Manufact. Index101810
8/26/20MBA Mortgage Applications-6.50%-3.30%
8/26/20Durable Goods Orders4.80%11.20%7.60%7.70%
8/26/20Durables Ex Transportation2.00%2.40%3.60%4.00%
8/26/20Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.70%1.90%3.40%4.30%
8/26/20Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air1.80%2.40%3.30%3.80%
8/27/20GDP Annualized QoQ-32.50%-32.90%
8/27/20Personal Consumption-34.40%-34.60%
8/27/20GDP Price Index-1.80%-1.80%
8/27/20Core PCE QoQ-1.10%-1.10%
8/27/20Initial Jobless Claims1000k1106k
8/27/20Continuing Claims14400k14844k
8/27/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort43.5
8/27/20Pending Home Sales MoM1.90%16.60%
8/27/20Pending Home Sales NSA YoY10.90%12.70%
8/27/20Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity53
8/28/20Personal Income-0.40%-1.10%
8/28/20Advance Goods Trade Balance-$72.0b-$70.6b
8/28/20Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.80%-1.40%
8/28/20Personal Spending1.50%5.60%
8/28/20Real Personal Spending1.50%5.20%
8/28/20Retail Inventories MoM-1.00%-2.60%
8/28/20PCE Deflator MoM0.40%0.40%
8/28/20PCE Deflator YoY1.00%0.80%
8/28/20PCE Core Deflator MoM0.50%0.20%
8/28/20PCE Core Deflator YoY1.20%0.90%
8/28/20MNI Chicago PMI52.551.9
8/28/20U. of Mich. Sentiment72.872.8
8/28/20U. of Mich. Current Conditions82.5
8/28/20U. of Mich. Expectations66.5
8/28/20U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.00%
8/28/20U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.70%


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