August 27, 2021 Headlines

Treasury yields are 1 to 2 bps lower this morning ahead of Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. The pace of personal spending slowed in July as purchases of goods and services rose by 0.3% compared to a revised 1.1% in the prior month. PCE, which is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, was up 0.4% month over month and 4.2% higher than a year ago. Inflation pressures combined with the seemingly strong recovery have led to calls for the Fed to start tapering its asset purchase in the upcoming months. Investors will be hoping to glean info from Powell’s speech about when and how the taper will start.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
08/23/21Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.120.530.09-0.01
08/23/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI6261.263.4
08/23/21Markit US Services PMI59.255.259.9
08/23/21Markit US Composite PMI55.459.9
08/23/21Existing Home Sales5.83m5.99m5.86m5.87m
08/23/21Existing Home Sales MoM-0.50%2.00%1.40%1.60%
08/24/21Richmond Fed Manufact. Index24927
08/24/21New Home Sales697k708k676k701k
08/24/21New Home Sales MoM3.10%1.00%-6.60%-2.60%
08/25/21MBA Mortgage Applications1.60%-3.90%-3.90%
08/25/21Durable Goods Orders-0.30%-0.10%0.90%0.80%
08/25/21Durables Ex Transportation0.50%0.70%0.50%0.60%
08/25/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.00%0.70%1.00%
08/25/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.70%1.00%0.60%
08/26/21Initial Jobless Claims350k353k348k349k
08/26/21Continuing Claims2772k2862k2820k2865k
08/26/21GDP Annualized QoQ6.70%6.60%6.50%
08/26/21Personal Consumption12.20%11.90%11.80%
08/26/21GDP Price Index6.00%6.10%6.00%
08/26/21Core PCE QoQ6.10%6.10%6.10%
08/26/21Langer Consumer Comfort57.256.5
08/26/21Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity252930
08/27/21Advance Goods Trade Balance-$90.9b-$86.4b-$91.2b-$92.1b
08/27/21Wholesale Inventories MoM1.00%0.60%1.10%1.20%
08/27/21Retail Inventories MoM0.20%0.40%0.30%0.50%
08/27/21Personal Income0.30%1.10%0.10%0.20%
08/27/21Personal Spending0.40%0.30%1.00%1.10%
08/27/21Real Personal Spending-0.10%-0.10%0.50%
08/27/21PCE Deflator MoM0.40%0.40%0.50%
08/27/21PCE Deflator YoY4.10%4.20%4.00%
08/27/21PCE Core Deflator MoM0.30%0.30%0.40%0.50%
08/27/21PCE Core Deflator YoY3.60%3.60%3.50%3.60%
08/27/21U. of Mich. Sentiment70.870.2
08/27/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions77.977.9
08/27/21U. of Mich. Expectations65.465.2
08/27/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.60%4.60%
08/27/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%

 

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