August 27, 2021 Headlines

Treasury yields are 1 to 2 bps lower this morning ahead of Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. The pace of personal spending slowed in July as purchases of goods and services rose by 0.3% compared to a revised 1.1% in the prior month. PCE, which is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, was up 0.4% month over month and 4.2% higher than a year ago. Inflation pressures combined with the seemingly strong recovery have led to calls for the Fed to start tapering its asset purchase in the upcoming months. Investors will be hoping to glean info from Powell’s speech about when and how the taper will start.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
08/23/21	Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index	0.12	0.53	0.09	-0.01
08/23/21	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	62	61.2	63.4	—
08/23/21	Markit US Services PMI	59.2	55.2	59.9	—
08/23/21	Markit US Composite PMI	—	55.4	59.9	—
08/23/21	Existing Home Sales	5.83m	5.99m	5.86m	5.87m
08/23/21	Existing Home Sales MoM	-0.50%	2.00%	1.40%	1.60%
08/24/21	Richmond Fed Manufact. Index	24	9	27	—
08/24/21	New Home Sales	697k	708k	676k	701k
08/24/21	New Home Sales MoM	3.10%	1.00%	-6.60%	-2.60%
08/25/21	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	1.60%	-3.90%	-3.90%
08/25/21	Durable Goods Orders	-0.30%	-0.10%	0.90%	0.80%
08/25/21	Durables Ex Transportation	0.50%	0.70%	0.50%	0.60%
08/25/21	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	0.50%	0.00%	0.70%	1.00%
08/25/21	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	0.70%	1.00%	0.60%	—
08/26/21	Initial Jobless Claims	350k	353k	348k	349k
08/26/21	Continuing Claims	2772k	2862k	2820k	2865k
08/26/21	GDP Annualized QoQ	6.70%	6.60%	6.50%	—
08/26/21	Personal Consumption	12.20%	11.90%	11.80%	—
08/26/21	GDP Price Index	6.00%	6.10%	6.00%	—
08/26/21	Core PCE QoQ	6.10%	6.10%	6.10%	—
08/26/21	Langer Consumer Comfort	—	57.2	56.5	—
08/26/21	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity	25	29	30	—
08/27/21	Advance Goods Trade Balance	-$90.9b	-$86.4b	-$91.2b	-$92.1b
08/27/21	Wholesale Inventories MoM	1.00%	0.60%	1.10%	1.20%
08/27/21	Retail Inventories MoM	0.20%	0.40%	0.30%	0.50%
08/27/21	Personal Income	0.30%	1.10%	0.10%	0.20%
08/27/21	Personal Spending	0.40%	0.30%	1.00%	1.10%
08/27/21	Real Personal Spending	-0.10%	-0.10%	0.50%	—
08/27/21	PCE Deflator MoM	0.40%	0.40%	0.50%	—
08/27/21	PCE Deflator YoY	4.10%	4.20%	4.00%	—
08/27/21	PCE Core Deflator MoM	0.30%	0.30%	0.40%	0.50%
08/27/21	PCE Core Deflator YoY	3.60%	3.60%	3.50%	3.60%
08/27/21	U. of Mich. Sentiment	70.8	—	70.2	—
08/27/21	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	77.9	—	77.9	—
08/27/21	U. of Mich. Expectations	65.4	—	65.2	—
08/27/21	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	4.60%	—	4.60%	—
08/27/21	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	3.00%	—

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