Treasury yields are 1 to 2 bps lower this morning ahead of Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. The pace of personal spending slowed in July as purchases of goods and services rose by 0.3% compared to a revised 1.1% in the prior month. PCE, which is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, was up 0.4% month over month and 4.2% higher than a year ago. Inflation pressures combined with the seemingly strong recovery have led to calls for the Fed to start tapering its asset purchase in the upcoming months. Investors will be hoping to glean info from Powell’s speech about when and how the taper will start.
Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group
Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
08/23/21 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.12 | 0.53 | 0.09 | -0.01 |
08/23/21 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 62 | 61.2 | 63.4 | — |
08/23/21 | Markit US Services PMI | 59.2 | 55.2 | 59.9 | — |
08/23/21 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 55.4 | 59.9 | — |
08/23/21 | Existing Home Sales | 5.83m | 5.99m | 5.86m | 5.87m |
08/23/21 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -0.50% | 2.00% | 1.40% | 1.60% |
08/24/21 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 24 | 9 | 27 | — |
08/24/21 | New Home Sales | 697k | 708k | 676k | 701k |
08/24/21 | New Home Sales MoM | 3.10% | 1.00% | -6.60% | -2.60% |
08/25/21 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 1.60% | -3.90% | -3.90% |
08/25/21 | Durable Goods Orders | -0.30% | -0.10% | 0.90% | 0.80% |
08/25/21 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.50% | 0.70% | 0.50% | 0.60% |
08/25/21 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.50% | 0.00% | 0.70% | 1.00% |
08/25/21 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.70% | 1.00% | 0.60% | — |
08/26/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 350k | 353k | 348k | 349k |
08/26/21 | Continuing Claims | 2772k | 2862k | 2820k | 2865k |
08/26/21 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 6.70% | 6.60% | 6.50% | — |
08/26/21 | Personal Consumption | 12.20% | 11.90% | 11.80% | — |
08/26/21 | GDP Price Index | 6.00% | 6.10% | 6.00% | — |
08/26/21 | Core PCE QoQ | 6.10% | 6.10% | 6.10% | — |
08/26/21 | Langer Consumer Comfort | — | 57.2 | 56.5 | — |
08/26/21 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 25 | 29 | 30 | — |
08/27/21 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$90.9b | -$86.4b | -$91.2b | -$92.1b |
08/27/21 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 1.00% | 0.60% | 1.10% | 1.20% |
08/27/21 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.50% |
08/27/21 | Personal Income | 0.30% | 1.10% | 0.10% | 0.20% |
08/27/21 | Personal Spending | 0.40% | 0.30% | 1.00% | 1.10% |
08/27/21 | Real Personal Spending | -0.10% | -0.10% | 0.50% | — |
08/27/21 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.50% | — |
08/27/21 | PCE Deflator YoY | 4.10% | 4.20% | 4.00% | — |
08/27/21 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.50% |
08/27/21 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 3.60% | 3.60% | 3.50% | 3.60% |
08/27/21 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 70.8 | — | 70.2 | — |
08/27/21 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 77.9 | — | 77.9 | — |
08/27/21 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 65.4 | — | 65.2 | — |
08/27/21 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 4.60% | — | 4.60% | — |
08/27/21 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 3.00% | — |
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