August 29, 2019 Headlines

A positive trade headline overnight has boosted risk markets, but Treasury prices are less reactive so far this morning (10-year yield only up 1 basis point). European equities are up nearly 1.5%, and S&P 500 futures are up 1% ahead of the open. Reports surfaced at 3am ET that China does not intend to escalate current trade tensions with the U.S. The official spokesperson of China’s Ministry of Commerce said that despite having “ample means for retaliation,” the country intends to “negotiate and collaborate in order to solve this problem with calm attitude.” The comments were relatively vague and are consistent with what Chinese officials have said previously, but with markets overly sensitive to any trade-related headlines, there is an outsized reaction to anything remotely positive on this front. The Treasury curve was initially steeper overnight in a follow through to Mnuchin’s comments yesterday that issuance of 50-year and 100-year debt is under “very serious consideration,” but the move was short lived and the curve is now modestly flatter on the day. The second estimate of Q2 GDP will be released this morning, with market expecting a small downward revision to the initial estimate (2% versus 2.1%).

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
8/26/2019	Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index	0	-0.36	-0.02	0.03
8/26/2019	Durable Goods Orders	1.20%	2.10%	1.90%	1.80%
8/26/2019	Durables Ex Transportation	0.00%	-0.40%	1.00%	0.80%
8/26/2019	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	0.00%	0.40%	1.50%	0.90%
8/26/2019	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	0.10%	-0.70%	0.30%	0.00%
8/26/2019	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	-4	2.7	-6.3	—
8/27/2019	House Price Purchase Index QoQ	0.30%	1.00%	1.10%	1.30%
8/27/2019	FHFA House Price Index MoM	0.20%	0.20%	0.10%	0.20%
8/27/2019	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA	0.10%	0.04%	0.14%	0.13%
8/27/2019	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA	2.30%	2.13%	2.39%	2.37%
8/27/2019	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index	218.02	217.65	216.94	216.92
8/27/2019	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA	3.30%	3.13%	3.43%	3.35%
8/27/2019	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index	—	210.71	209.66	209.49
8/27/2019	Richmond Fed Manufact. Index	-4	1	-12	—
8/27/2019	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence	129	135.1	135.7	135.8
8/27/2019	Conf. Board Present Situation	—	177.2	170.9	—
8/27/2019	Conf. Board Expectations	—	107	112.2	112.4
8/28/2019	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-6.20%	-0.90%	—
8/29/2019	GDP Annualized QoQ	2.00%	2.00%	2.10%	—
8/29/2019	Personal Consumption	4.30%	4.70%	4.30%	—
8/29/2019	GDP Price Index	2.40%	2.40%	2.40%	—
8/29/2019	Core PCE QoQ	1.80%	1.70%	1.80%	—
8/29/2019	Advance Goods Trade Balance	-$74.4b	-$72.3b	-$74.2b	—
8/29/2019	Retail Inventories MoM	0.30%	0.80%	-0.10%	-0.30%
8/29/2019	Wholesale Inventories MoM	0.20%	0.20%	0.00%	—
8/29/2019	Initial Jobless Claims	214k	215k	209k	211k
8/29/2019	Continuing Claims	1686k	1698k	1674k	1676k
8/29/2019	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	61.5	—
8/29/2019	Pending Home Sales MoM	0.00%	—	2.80%	—
8/29/2019	Pending Home Sales NSA YoY	1.80%	—	-0.60%	—
8/30/2019	Personal Income	0.30%	—	0.40%	—
8/30/2019	Personal Spending	0.50%	—	0.30%	—
8/30/2019	Real Personal Spending	0.30%	—	0.20%	—
8/30/2019	PCE Deflator MoM	0.20%	—	0.10%	—
8/30/2019	PCE Deflator YoY	1.40%	—	1.40%	—
8/30/2019	PCE Core Deflator MoM	0.20%	—	0.20%	—
8/30/2019	PCE Core Deflator YoY	1.60%	—	1.60%	—
8/30/2019	MNI Chicago PMI	47.5	—	44.4	—
8/30/2019	U. of Mich. Sentiment	92.3	—	92.1	—
8/30/2019	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	—	—	107.4	—
8/30/2019	U. of Mich. Expectations	—	—	82.3	—
8/30/2019	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.70%	—
8/30/2019	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.60%	—

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