August 29, 2019 Headlines

A positive trade headline overnight has boosted risk markets, but Treasury prices are less reactive so far this morning (10-year yield only up 1 basis point). European equities are up nearly 1.5%, and S&P 500 futures are up 1% ahead of the open.  Reports surfaced at 3am ET that China does not intend to escalate current trade tensions with the U.S.  The official spokesperson of China’s Ministry of Commerce said that despite having “ample means for retaliation,” the country intends to “negotiate and collaborate in order to solve this problem with calm attitude.”  The comments were relatively vague and are consistent with what Chinese officials have said previously, but with markets overly sensitive to any trade-related headlines, there is an outsized reaction to anything remotely positive on this front.  The Treasury curve was initially steeper overnight in a follow through to Mnuchin’s comments yesterday that issuance of 50-year and 100-year debt is under “very serious consideration,” but the move was short lived and the curve is now modestly flatter on the day. The second estimate of Q2 GDP will be released this morning, with market expecting a small downward revision to the initial estimate (2% versus 2.1%).

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
8/26/2019Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0-0.36-0.020.03
8/26/2019Durable Goods Orders1.20%2.10%1.90%1.80%
8/26/2019Durables Ex Transportation0.00%-0.40%1.00%0.80%
8/26/2019Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.00%0.40%1.50%0.90%
8/26/2019Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.10%-0.70%0.30%0.00%
8/26/2019Dallas Fed Manf. Activity-42.7-6.3
8/27/2019House Price Purchase Index QoQ0.30%1.00%1.10%1.30%
8/27/2019FHFA House Price Index MoM0.20%0.20%0.10%0.20%
8/27/2019S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.10%0.04%0.14%0.13%
8/27/2019S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA2.30%2.13%2.39%2.37%
8/27/2019S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index218.02217.65216.94216.92
8/27/2019S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA3.30%3.13%3.43%3.35%
8/27/2019S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index210.71209.66209.49
8/27/2019Richmond Fed Manufact. Index-41-12
8/27/2019Conf. Board Consumer Confidence129135.1135.7135.8
8/27/2019Conf. Board Present Situation177.2170.9
8/27/2019Conf. Board Expectations107112.2112.4
8/28/2019MBA Mortgage Applications-6.20%-0.90%
8/29/2019GDP Annualized QoQ2.00%2.00%2.10%
8/29/2019Personal Consumption4.30%4.70%4.30%
8/29/2019GDP Price Index2.40%2.40%2.40%
8/29/2019Core PCE QoQ1.80%1.70%1.80%
8/29/2019Advance Goods Trade Balance-$74.4b-$72.3b-$74.2b
8/29/2019Retail Inventories MoM0.30%0.80%-0.10%-0.30%
8/29/2019Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%0.20%0.00%
8/29/2019Initial Jobless Claims214k215k209k211k
8/29/2019Continuing Claims1686k1698k1674k1676k
8/29/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort61.5
8/29/2019Pending Home Sales MoM0.00%2.80%
8/29/2019Pending Home Sales NSA YoY1.80%-0.60%
8/30/2019Personal Income0.30%0.40%
8/30/2019Personal Spending0.50%0.30%
8/30/2019Real Personal Spending0.30%0.20%
8/30/2019PCE Deflator MoM0.20%0.10%
8/30/2019PCE Deflator YoY1.40%1.40%
8/30/2019PCE Core Deflator MoM0.20%0.20%
8/30/2019PCE Core Deflator YoY1.60%1.60%
8/30/2019MNI Chicago PMI47.544.4
8/30/2019U. of Mich. Sentiment92.392.1
8/30/2019U. of Mich. Current Conditions107.4
8/30/2019U. of Mich. Expectations82.3
8/30/2019U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%
8/30/2019U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.60%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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