A positive trade headline overnight has boosted risk markets, but Treasury prices are less reactive so far this morning (10-year yield only up 1 basis point). European equities are up nearly 1.5%, and S&P 500 futures are up 1% ahead of the open. Reports surfaced at 3am ET that China does not intend to escalate current trade tensions with the U.S. The official spokesperson of China’s Ministry of Commerce said that despite having “ample means for retaliation,” the country intends to “negotiate and collaborate in order to solve this problem with calm attitude.” The comments were relatively vague and are consistent with what Chinese officials have said previously, but with markets overly sensitive to any trade-related headlines, there is an outsized reaction to anything remotely positive on this front. The Treasury curve was initially steeper overnight in a follow through to Mnuchin’s comments yesterday that issuance of 50-year and 100-year debt is under “very serious consideration,” but the move was short lived and the curve is now modestly flatter on the day. The second estimate of Q2 GDP will be released this morning, with market expecting a small downward revision to the initial estimate (2% versus 2.1%).
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
8/26/2019 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0 | -0.36 | -0.02 | 0.03 |
8/26/2019 | Durable Goods Orders | 1.20% | 2.10% | 1.90% | 1.80% |
8/26/2019 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.00% | -0.40% | 1.00% | 0.80% |
8/26/2019 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.00% | 0.40% | 1.50% | 0.90% |
8/26/2019 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.10% | -0.70% | 0.30% | 0.00% |
8/26/2019 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | -4 | 2.7 | -6.3 | — |
8/27/2019 | House Price Purchase Index QoQ | 0.30% | 1.00% | 1.10% | 1.30% |
8/27/2019 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.20% |
8/27/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.10% | 0.04% | 0.14% | 0.13% |
8/27/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 2.30% | 2.13% | 2.39% | 2.37% |
8/27/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | 218.02 | 217.65 | 216.94 | 216.92 |
8/27/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | 3.30% | 3.13% | 3.43% | 3.35% |
8/27/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | 210.71 | 209.66 | 209.49 |
8/27/2019 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | -4 | 1 | -12 | — |
8/27/2019 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 129 | 135.1 | 135.7 | 135.8 |
8/27/2019 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 177.2 | 170.9 | — |
8/27/2019 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 107 | 112.2 | 112.4 |
8/28/2019 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -6.20% | -0.90% | — |
8/29/2019 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.00% | 2.00% | 2.10% | — |
8/29/2019 | Personal Consumption | 4.30% | 4.70% | 4.30% | — |
8/29/2019 | GDP Price Index | 2.40% | 2.40% | 2.40% | — |
8/29/2019 | Core PCE QoQ | 1.80% | 1.70% | 1.80% | — |
8/29/2019 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$74.4b | -$72.3b | -$74.2b | — |
8/29/2019 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.30% | 0.80% | -0.10% | -0.30% |
8/29/2019 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.00% | — |
8/29/2019 | Initial Jobless Claims | 214k | 215k | 209k | 211k |
8/29/2019 | Continuing Claims | 1686k | 1698k | 1674k | 1676k |
8/29/2019 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 61.5 | — |
8/29/2019 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.00% | — | 2.80% | — |
8/29/2019 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | 1.80% | — | -0.60% | — |
8/30/2019 | Personal Income | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
8/30/2019 | Personal Spending | 0.50% | — | 0.30% | — |
8/30/2019 | Real Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
8/30/2019 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
8/30/2019 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.40% | — | 1.40% | — |
8/30/2019 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
8/30/2019 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 1.60% | — | 1.60% | — |
8/30/2019 | MNI Chicago PMI | 47.5 | — | 44.4 | — |
8/30/2019 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 92.3 | — | 92.1 | — |
8/30/2019 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 107.4 | — |
8/30/2019 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 82.3 | — |
8/30/2019 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% | — |
8/30/2019 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.60% | — |
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