Treasury prices are little changed this morning following a quiet overnight session. Global equity markets are mixed but with little movement in either direction, and S&P 500 futures are flat. The second estimate of Q2 GDP was revised 10 bps higher to 4.2%. A greater than initially estimated contribution from business investment and net exports contributed the upward revision, offsetting a slightly weaker consumer spending estimate. July personal income, spending, and PCE will be released tomorrow. The year-over-year metric for PCE core is expected to tick higher by 10 bps to 2%, and if that happens, it would be the first time since April 2012.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPrior
08/27/2018Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.450.130.43
08/27/2018Dallas Fed Manf. Activity3030.932.3
08/28/2018Advance Goods Trade Balance-$69.0b-$72.2b-$68.3b
08/28/2018Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%0.70%0.10%
08/28/2018Retail Inventories MoM0.40%0.00%
08/28/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.20%0.11%0.20%
08/28/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA6.40%6.31%6.51%
08/28/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index213.07211.94
08/28/2018S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index204.48202.95
08/28/2018S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA6.24%6.38%
08/28/2018Richmond Fed Manufact. Index172420
08/28/2018Conf. Board Consumer Confidence126.6133.4127.4
08/28/2018Conf. Board Present Situation172.2165.9
08/28/2018Conf. Board Expectations107.6101.7
08/29/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-1.70%4.20%
08/29/2018GDP Annualized QoQ4.00%4.20%4.10%
08/29/2018Personal Consumption3.90%3.80%4.00%
08/29/2018GDP Price Index3.00%3.00%3.00%
08/29/2018Core PCE QoQ2.00%2.00%2.00%
08/29/2018Pending Home Sales MoM0.30%0.90%
08/29/2018Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-2.50%-4.00%
08/30/2018PCE Core YoY2.00%1.90%
08/30/2018Personal Income0.40%0.40%
08/30/2018Personal Spending0.40%0.40%
08/30/2018Real Personal Spending0.20%0.30%
08/30/2018PCE Deflator MoM0.10%0.10%
08/30/2018PCE Deflator YoY2.30%2.20%
08/30/2018PCE Core MoM0.20%0.10%
08/30/2018Initial Jobless Claims213k210k
08/30/2018Continuing Claims1730k1727k
08/30/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort58.6
08/31/2018Chicago Purchasing Manager6365.5
08/31/2018U. of Mich. Sentiment95.595.3
08/31/2018U. of Mich. Current Conditions107.8
08/31/2018U. of Mich. Expectations87.3
08/31/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.90%
08/31/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%