August 3, 2020 Headlines

Improved overseas economic data pushed Treasury yields higher and steeper overnight, and the pro-risk tone is continuing this morning. China posted better than expected manufacturing data (Caixin PMI), and the sell-off in bonds continued after Europe also posted upbeat PMI data on the manufacturing front. Most major global equity indices are experiencing strong rallies today (Nikkei +2.2%, Shanghai +1.8%, Euro Stoxx +1.9%), and S&P 500 futures are up 0.6% ahead of the open.

This week’s economic calendar will be headlined by the July jobs report on Friday, but there will be arguably more attention paid to weekly jobless claims data on Thursday given the negative COVID-19 trends in recent weeks, which contributed to an increase in continuing claims last week. ISM manufacturing data for July will be released later this morning. Several regional Fed presidents will be speaking this week, including Jim Bullard (St. Louis), Tom Barkin (Richmond), and Charles Evans (Chicago) in three separate events today.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
8/3/20Markit US Manufacturing PMI51.351.3
8/3/20ISM Manufacturing53.652.6
8/3/20ISM New Orders55.156.4
8/3/20ISM Prices Paid5251.3
8/3/20ISM Employment42.1
8/3/20Construction Spending MoM1.00%-2.10%
8/3/20Wards Total Vehicle Sales14.00m13.05m
8/4/20Factory Orders5.00%8.00%
8/4/20Factory Orders Ex Trans2.60%
8/4/20Durable Goods Orders7.30%7.30%
8/4/20Durables Ex Transportation3.30%3.30%
8/4/20Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air3.30%
8/4/20Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air3.40%
8/5/20MBA Mortgage Applications-0.80%
8/5/20ADP Employment Change1200k2369k
8/5/20Trade Balance-$50.2b-$54.6b
8/5/20Markit US Services PMI49.649.6
8/5/20Markit US Composite PMI50
8/5/20ISM Services Index5557.1
8/6/20Challenger Job Cuts YoY305.50%
8/6/20Initial Jobless Claims1415k1434k
8/6/20Continuing Claims16900k17018k
8/6/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort44.3
8/7/20Two-Month Payroll Net Revision90k
8/7/20Change in Nonfarm Payrolls1500k4800k
8/7/20Change in Private Payrolls1200k4767k
8/7/20Change in Manufact. Payrolls280k356k
8/7/20Unemployment Rate10.50%11.10%
8/7/20Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.434.5
8/7/20Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.20%5.00%
8/7/20Average Hourly Earnings MoM-0.50%-1.20%
8/7/20Labor Force Participation Rate61.80%61.50%
8/7/20Underemployment Rate18.00%
8/7/20Wholesale Inventories MoM-2.00%-2.00%
8/7/20Wholesale Trade Sales MoM5.40%
8/7/20Consumer Credit$10.000b-$18.280b

 

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