Improved overseas economic data pushed Treasury yields higher and steeper overnight, and the pro-risk tone is continuing this morning. China posted better than expected manufacturing data (Caixin PMI), and the sell-off in bonds continued after Europe also posted upbeat PMI data on the manufacturing front. Most major global equity indices are experiencing strong rallies today (Nikkei +2.2%, Shanghai +1.8%, Euro Stoxx +1.9%), and S&P 500 futures are up 0.6% ahead of the open.
This week’s economic calendar will be headlined by the July jobs report on Friday, but there will be arguably more attention paid to weekly jobless claims data on Thursday given the negative COVID-19 trends in recent weeks, which contributed to an increase in continuing claims last week. ISM manufacturing data for July will be released later this morning. Several regional Fed presidents will be speaking this week, including Jim Bullard (St. Louis), Tom Barkin (Richmond), and Charles Evans (Chicago) in three separate events today.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 8/3/20 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 51.3 | — | 51.3 | — |
| 8/3/20 | ISM Manufacturing | 53.6 | — | 52.6 | — |
| 8/3/20 | ISM New Orders | 55.1 | — | 56.4 | — |
| 8/3/20 | ISM Prices Paid | 52 | — | 51.3 | — |
| 8/3/20 | ISM Employment | — | — | 42.1 | — |
| 8/3/20 | Construction Spending MoM | 1.00% | — | -2.10% | — |
| 8/3/20 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 14.00m | — | 13.05m | — |
| 8/4/20 | Factory Orders | 5.00% | — | 8.00% | — |
| 8/4/20 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 2.60% | — |
| 8/4/20 | Durable Goods Orders | 7.30% | — | 7.30% | — |
| 8/4/20 | Durables Ex Transportation | 3.30% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 8/4/20 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 3.30% | — |
| 8/4/20 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 3.40% | — |
| 8/5/20 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -0.80% | — |
| 8/5/20 | ADP Employment Change | 1200k | — | 2369k | — |
| 8/5/20 | Trade Balance | -$50.2b | — | -$54.6b | — |
| 8/5/20 | Markit US Services PMI | 49.6 | — | 49.6 | — |
| 8/5/20 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 50 | — |
| 8/5/20 | ISM Services Index | 55 | — | 57.1 | — |
| 8/6/20 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 305.50% | — |
| 8/6/20 | Initial Jobless Claims | 1415k | — | 1434k | — |
| 8/6/20 | Continuing Claims | 16900k | — | 17018k | — |
| 8/6/20 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 44.3 | — |
| 8/7/20 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | 90k | — |
| 8/7/20 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 1500k | — | 4800k | — |
| 8/7/20 | Change in Private Payrolls | 1200k | — | 4767k | — |
| 8/7/20 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 280k | — | 356k | — |
| 8/7/20 | Unemployment Rate | 10.50% | — | 11.10% | — |
| 8/7/20 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.4 | — | 34.5 | — |
| 8/7/20 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.20% | — | 5.00% | — |
| 8/7/20 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | -0.50% | — | -1.20% | — |
| 8/7/20 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 61.80% | — | 61.50% | — |
| 8/7/20 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 18.00% | — |
| 8/7/20 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | -2.00% | — | -2.00% | — |
| 8/7/20 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 5.40% | — |
| 8/7/20 | Consumer Credit | $10.000b | — | -$18.280b | — |
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