August 3, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are another 2 to 4 bps higher this morning following yesterday’s selloff that saw yields rise 17 to 22 bps. Comments from Fed governor Daly stating that the Fed is “Nowhere near almost done” in its fight against inflation were the initial catalyst for the selloff in rates. A benign response from China over Speaker Pelosi’s Taiwan visit and hawkish comments from Chicago Fed President Evans added fuel to the fire.

The MBA mortgage applications index rose by 1.2% last week after the average 30-year rate hit 5.43%. Purchases were up 1% last week after declining by 0.8% the week prior, while refis rose by 1.5% after declining 3.7% the week prior. Refi volumes are still relatively low, making up 30.8% of applications compared to an average of 64.7% through 2021.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
08/01/22 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 52.3 52.2 52.3
08/01/22 Construction Spending MoM 0.10% -1.10% -0.10% 0.10%
08/01/22 ISM Manufacturing 52 52.8 53
08/01/22 ISM Prices Paid 74.3 60 78.5
08/01/22 ISM New Orders 49 48 49.2
08/01/22 ISM Employment 48.2 49.9 47.3
08/02/22 JOLTS Job Openings 11000k 10698k 11254k 11303k
08/02/22 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 13.40m 13.35m 13.00m
08/03/22 MBA Mortgage Applications 1.20% -1.80%
08/03/22 S&P Global US Services PMI 47 47
08/03/22 S&P Global US Composite PMI 47.5
08/03/22 Factory Orders 1.20% 1.60%
08/03/22 Factory Orders Ex Trans 1.70%
08/03/22 Durable Goods Orders 1.90% 1.90%
08/03/22 Durables Ex Transportation 0.30% 0.30%
08/03/22 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.50%
08/03/22 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.70%
08/03/22 ISM Services Index 53.5 55.3
08/04/22 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 58.80%
08/04/22 Trade Balance -$80.0b -$85.5b
08/04/22 Initial Jobless Claims 260k 256k
08/04/22 Continuing Claims 1383k 1359k
08/05/22 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
08/05/22 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 250k 372k
08/05/22 Change in Private Payrolls 230k 381k
08/05/22 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 20k 29k
08/05/22 Unemployment Rate 3.60% 3.60%
08/05/22 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.30% 0.30%
08/05/22 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 4.90% 5.10%
08/05/22 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.5 34.5
08/05/22 Labor Force Participation Rate 62.20% 62.20%
08/05/22 Underemployment Rate 6.70%
08/05/22 Consumer Credit $26.000b $22.347b


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