A global risk-off trade overnight is boosting Treasuries and the U.S. dollar this morning. Weakness in Chinese equities (Shanghai Composite -1.1%) and renewed volatility in emerging markets currencies were the initial catalysts for market concerns today, but sentiment has improved somewhat on reports that the European Union is willing to end tariffs on U.S. car imports if the White House responds in kind.  Personal spending growth outpaced income growth in July before adjusting for inflation, which pushed the personal savings rate down 10 bps to 6.7%. On the inflation front, both headline and core PCE were in line with expectations. PCE core rose 2% in July on a year-over-year basis, which is the first time since April 2012 that it has reached the Fed’s 2% target. While the Fed looks at many metrics for inflation, PCE is the preferred gauge for many FOMC members, and today’s data only further reinforces expectations for a September rate hike (if it were still a question to some).

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group


Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
08/27/2018 08:30Chicago Fed Nat Activity IndexJul0.450.130.430.48
08/27/2018 10:30Dallas Fed Manf. ActivityAug3030.932.3
08/28/2018 08:30Advance Goods Trade BalanceJul-$69.0b-$72.2b-$68.3b-$67.9b
08/28/2018 08:30Wholesale Inventories MoMJul P0.20%0.70%0.10%
08/28/2018 08:30Retail Inventories MoMJul0.40%0.00%
08/28/2018 09:00S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SAJun0.20%0.11%0.20%0.21%
08/28/2018 09:00S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSAJun6.40%6.31%6.51%6.54%
08/28/2018 09:00S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA IndexJun213.07211.94212
08/28/2018 09:00S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA IndexJun204.48202.95202.91
08/28/2018 09:00S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSAJun6.24%6.38%
08/28/2018 10:00Richmond Fed Manufact. IndexAug172420
08/28/2018 10:00Conf. Board Consumer ConfidenceAug126.6133.4127.4127.9
08/28/2018 10:00Conf. Board Present SituationAug172.2165.9166.1
08/28/2018 10:00Conf. Board ExpectationsAug107.6101.7102.4
08/29/2018 07:00MBA Mortgage Applications24-Aug-1.70%4.20%
08/29/2018 08:30GDP Annualized QoQ2Q S4.00%4.20%4.10%
08/29/2018 08:30Personal Consumption2Q S3.90%3.80%4.00%
08/29/2018 08:30GDP Price Index2Q S3.00%3.00%3.00%
08/29/2018 08:30Core PCE QoQ2Q S2.00%2.00%2.00%
08/29/2018 10:00Pending Home Sales MoMJul0.30%-0.70%0.90%1.00%
08/29/2018 10:00Pending Home Sales NSA YoYJul-2.50%-0.50%-4.00%
08/30/2018 08:30Personal IncomeJul0.40%0.30%0.40%
08/30/2018 08:30Personal SpendingJul0.40%0.40%0.40%
08/30/2018 08:30Real Personal SpendingJul0.20%0.20%0.30%
08/30/2018 08:30PCE Deflator MoMJul0.10%0.10%0.10%
08/30/2018 08:30PCE Deflator YoYJul2.30%2.30%2.20%
08/30/2018 08:30PCE Core MoMJul0.20%0.20%0.10%
08/30/2018 08:30PCE Core YoYJul2.00%2.00%1.90%
08/30/2018 08:30Initial Jobless Claims25-Aug212k213k210k
08/30/2018 08:30Continuing Claims18-Aug1725k1708k1727k
08/30/2018 09:45Bloomberg Consumer Comfort26-Aug58.358.6
08/31/2018 09:45Chicago Purchasing ManagerAug6365.5
08/31/2018 10:00U. of Mich. SentimentAug F95.595.3
08/31/2018 10:00U. of Mich. Current ConditionsAug F107.8
08/31/2018 10:00U. of Mich. ExpectationsAug F87.3
08/31/2018 10:00U. of Mich. 1 Yr InflationAug F2.90%
08/31/2018 10:00U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr InflationAug F2.50%