August 4, 2020 Headlines

Treasury prices are higher this morning on more US/China tensions, as well as the Royal Bank of Australia’s decision to resume its bond purchases. U.S. equity futures are pointing to a lower open on disappointing earnings announcements from both U.S. and European companies, including AIG and Bayer. China has vowed to retaliate against the U.S. if the visas of Chinese journalists are not renewed, and the country’s state media is branding the White House’s position in the Tik Tok situation a “smash and grab.” Democrat and Republican leaders claim to have made progress on a new fiscal aid package, and the debate is reportedly centered on the level of federal unemployment subsidies. The package is currently expected to be $1 trillion, and a group of more than 100 business CEOs, led by former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz, are urging Congressional leaders to include more support for small businesses. While an extension of the PPP would be helpful, they said more significant and sustained support is needed, including federally guaranteed loans that provide more flexibility on how the funds are used.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
8/3/20Markit US Manufacturing PMI51.350.951.3
8/3/20ISM Manufacturing53.654.252.6
8/3/20ISM New Orders55.161.556.4
8/3/20ISM Prices Paid5253.251.3
8/3/20ISM Employment44.342.1
8/3/20Construction Spending MoM1.00%-0.70%-2.10%-1.70%
8/3/20Wards Total Vehicle Sales14.00m14.52m13.05m
8/4/20Factory Orders5.00%8.00%
8/4/20Factory Orders Ex Trans2.60%
8/4/20Durable Goods Orders7.30%7.30%
8/4/20Durables Ex Transportation3.30%3.30%
8/4/20Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air3.30%
8/4/20Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air3.40%
8/5/20MBA Mortgage Applications-0.80%
8/5/20ADP Employment Change1200k2369k
8/5/20Trade Balance-$50.2b-$54.6b
8/5/20Markit US Services PMI49.649.6
8/5/20Markit US Composite PMI50
8/5/20ISM Services Index5557.1
8/6/20Challenger Job Cuts YoY305.50%
8/6/20Initial Jobless Claims1414k1434k
8/6/20Continuing Claims16900k17018k
8/6/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort44.3
8/7/20Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
8/7/20Change in Nonfarm Payrolls1500k4800k
8/7/20Change in Private Payrolls1500k4767k
8/7/20Change in Manufact. Payrolls280k356k
8/7/20Unemployment Rate10.50%11.10%
8/7/20Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.434.5
8/7/20Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.20%5.00%
8/7/20Average Hourly Earnings MoM-0.50%-1.20%
8/7/20Labor Force Participation Rate61.80%61.50%
8/7/20Underemployment Rate18.00%
8/7/20Wholesale Inventories MoM-2.00%-2.00%
8/7/20Wholesale Trade Sales MoM5.40%
8/7/20Consumer Credit$10.000b-$18.280b

 

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