August 4, 2021 Headlines

The yield curve is flattening again this morning after the Treasury Department announced that it plans to reduce borrowing as soon as November, as well as a miss in the ADP employment report. Long-end yields are 4 basis points lower, and S&P 500 futures are down 0.34% ahead of the open following mixed earnings reports. The ADP employment report indicates that private payrolls added 330,000 jobs in July, well below the 690,000 expected. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show a 718,000 increase in private payrolls according to Bloomberg’s survey. Two Fed leaders will be speaking today. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who has been much more hawkish of late in his public comments, will be speaking momentarily (non-voter in 2021), and Vice Chair Richard Clarida will be speaking later this morning.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
8/4/2021	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-1.70%	5.70%	7.00%
8/4/2021	ADP Employment Change	690k	330k	692k	680k
8/4/2021	Markit US Services PMI	59.8	—	59.8	—
8/4/2021	Markit US Composite PMI	—	—	59.7	—
8/4/2021	ISM Services Index	60.5	—	60.1	—
8/5/2021	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	—	-88.00%	—
8/5/2021	Trade Balance	-$74.1b	—	-$71.2b	—
8/5/2021	Initial Jobless Claims	383k	—	400k	—
8/5/2021	Continuing Claims	3255k	—	3269k	—
8/5/2021	Langer Consumer Comfort	—	—	53.2	—
8/6/2021	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	875k	—	850k	—
8/6/2021	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	15k	—
8/6/2021	Change in Private Payrolls	718k	—	662k	—
8/6/2021	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	30k	—	15k	—
8/6/2021	Unemployment Rate	5.70%	—	5.90%	—
8/6/2021	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.30%	—	0.30%	—
8/6/2021	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	3.90%	—	3.60%	—
8/6/2021	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.7	—	34.7	—
8/6/2021	Labor Force Participation Rate	61.80%	—	61.60%	—
8/6/2021	Underemployment Rate	—	—	9.80%	—
8/6/2021	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	—	—	0.80%	—
8/6/2021	Wholesale Inventories MoM	0.80%	—	0.80%	—
8/6/2021	Consumer Credit	$23.000b	—	$35.281b	—

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