August 4, 2021 Headlines

The yield curve is flattening again this morning after the Treasury Department announced that it plans to reduce borrowing as soon as November, as well as a miss in the ADP employment report. Long-end yields are 4 basis points lower, and S&P 500 futures are down 0.34% ahead of the open following mixed earnings reports. The ADP employment report indicates that private payrolls added 330,000 jobs in July, well below the 690,000 expected. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show a 718,000 increase in private payrolls according to Bloomberg’s survey. Two Fed leaders will be speaking today. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who has been much more hawkish of late in his public comments, will be speaking momentarily (non-voter in 2021), and Vice Chair Richard Clarida will be speaking later this morning.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

8/4/2021MBA Mortgage Applications-1.70%5.70%7.00%
8/4/2021ADP Employment Change690k330k692k680k
8/4/2021Markit US Services PMI59.859.8
8/4/2021Markit US Composite PMI59.7
8/4/2021ISM Services Index60.560.1
8/5/2021Challenger Job Cuts YoY-88.00%
8/5/2021Trade Balance-$74.1b-$71.2b
8/5/2021Initial Jobless Claims383k400k
8/5/2021Continuing Claims3255k3269k
8/5/2021Langer Consumer Comfort53.2
8/6/2021Change in Nonfarm Payrolls875k850k
8/6/2021Two-Month Payroll Net Revision15k
8/6/2021Change in Private Payrolls718k662k
8/6/2021Change in Manufact. Payrolls30k15k
8/6/2021Unemployment Rate5.70%5.90%
8/6/2021Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.30%
8/6/2021Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.90%3.60%
8/6/2021Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.734.7
8/6/2021Labor Force Participation Rate61.80%61.60%
8/6/2021Underemployment Rate9.80%
8/6/2021Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.80%
8/6/2021Wholesale Inventories MoM0.80%0.80%
8/6/2021Consumer Credit$23.000b$35.281b


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