The yield curve is flattening again this morning after the Treasury Department announced that it plans to reduce borrowing as soon as November, as well as a miss in the ADP employment report. Long-end yields are 4 basis points lower, and S&P 500 futures are down 0.34% ahead of the open following mixed earnings reports. The ADP employment report indicates that private payrolls added 330,000 jobs in July, well below the 690,000 expected. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show a 718,000 increase in private payrolls according to Bloomberg’s survey. Two Fed leaders will be speaking today. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who has been much more hawkish of late in his public comments, will be speaking momentarily (non-voter in 2021), and Vice Chair Richard Clarida will be speaking later this morning.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
8/4/2021 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -1.70% | 5.70% | 7.00% |
8/4/2021 | ADP Employment Change | 690k | 330k | 692k | 680k |
8/4/2021 | Markit US Services PMI | 59.8 | — | 59.8 | — |
8/4/2021 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 59.7 | — |
8/4/2021 | ISM Services Index | 60.5 | — | 60.1 | — |
8/5/2021 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | -88.00% | — |
8/5/2021 | Trade Balance | -$74.1b | — | -$71.2b | — |
8/5/2021 | Initial Jobless Claims | 383k | — | 400k | — |
8/5/2021 | Continuing Claims | 3255k | — | 3269k | — |
8/5/2021 | Langer Consumer Comfort | — | — | 53.2 | — |
8/6/2021 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 875k | — | 850k | — |
8/6/2021 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | 15k | — |
8/6/2021 | Change in Private Payrolls | 718k | — | 662k | — |
8/6/2021 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 30k | — | 15k | — |
8/6/2021 | Unemployment Rate | 5.70% | — | 5.90% | — |
8/6/2021 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
8/6/2021 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.90% | — | 3.60% | — |
8/6/2021 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.7 | — | 34.7 | — |
8/6/2021 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 61.80% | — | 61.60% | — |
8/6/2021 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 9.80% | — |
8/6/2021 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 0.80% | — |
8/6/2021 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.80% | — | 0.80% | — |
8/6/2021 | Consumer Credit | $23.000b | — | $35.281b | — |
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