August 4, 2022 Headlines

The Treasury curve continues to flatten as central bankers hold the line on policy tightening with inflation rates still well above target. The 2-year/10-year spread is another 3 basis points lower this morning to -0.38%, the most inverted level of the last 22 years. Yesterday, multiple Fed leaders spoke and were generally dismissive of recent recession fears or, more importantly, any idea that a policy “pivot” is imminent. The Bank of England followed suit this morning with a 50 basis point rate hike, the biggest single-meeting hike since 1995. The expectation of “higher for longer” with regard to short-term rates has the 10-year Treasury yield down nearly 20 basis points from yesterday morning’s high point. As we have said many times in recent months, interest rate volatility is likely to remain at historically high levels until there is more clarity around the path of inflation and the subsequent Fed response. Tomorrow’s jobs report should provide additional color as to whether there are any signs of cooling in labor markets.  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
08/01/22 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 52.3 52.2 52.3
08/01/22 Construction Spending MoM 0.10% -1.10% -0.10% 0.10%
08/01/22 ISM Manufacturing 52 52.8 53
08/01/22 ISM Prices Paid 74.3 60 78.5
08/01/22 ISM New Orders 49 48 49.2
08/01/22 ISM Employment 48.2 49.9 47.3
08/02/22 JOLTS Job Openings 11000k 10698k 11254k 11303k
08/02/22 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 13.40m 13.35m 13.00m
08/03/22 MBA Mortgage Applications 1.20% -1.80%
08/03/22 S&P Global US Services PMI 47 47
08/03/22 S&P Global US Composite PMI 47.5
08/03/22 Factory Orders 1.20% 1.60%
08/03/22 Factory Orders Ex Trans 1.70%
08/03/22 Durable Goods Orders 1.90% 1.90%
08/03/22 Durables Ex Transportation 0.30% 0.30%
08/03/22 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.50%
08/03/22 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.70%
08/03/22 ISM Services Index 53.5 55.3
08/04/22 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 58.80%
08/04/22 Trade Balance -$80.0b -$85.5b
08/04/22 Initial Jobless Claims 260k 256k
08/04/22 Continuing Claims 1383k 1359k
08/05/22 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
08/05/22 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 250k 372k
08/05/22 Change in Private Payrolls 230k 381k
08/05/22 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 20k 29k
08/05/22 Unemployment Rate 3.60% 3.60%
08/05/22 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.30% 0.30%
08/05/22 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 4.90% 5.10%
08/05/22 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.5 34.5
08/05/22 Labor Force Participation Rate 62.20% 62.20%
08/05/22 Underemployment Rate 6.70%
08/05/22 Consumer Credit $26.000b $22.347b

 

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