August 4, 2023 Headlines

US payrolls rose by 187,000 while the prior two months saw downward revisions of 49,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. Today’s data serves as another reminder that the US labor market remains very strong. This strength combined with softening inflation data has given the market hope that the Fed will soon be done with its rate hikes.

Today’s release showed average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% in June while the y/y increase was 4.4%; both higher than expected. Average weekly hours worked fell in June, which led to a tepid rise of 0.1% in average weekly earnings.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
08/04/23 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision -49k
08/04/23 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 200k 187k 209k 185k
08/04/23 Change in Private Payrolls 180k 172k 149k 128k
08/04/23 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 5k -2k 7k 6k
08/04/23 Unemployment Rate 3.60% 3.50% 3.60%
08/04/23 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.30% 0.40% 0.40%
08/04/23 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 4.20% 4.40% 4.40%
08/04/23 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.4 34.3 34.4
08/04/23 Labor Force Participation Rate 62.60% 62.60% 62.60%
08/04/23 Underemployment Rate 6.70% 6.90%

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