August 5, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are higher and steeper on hopes that Congress will be able to pass at least a partial relief package this week. Also adding to the positive risk tone this morning, U.S. and Chinese officials are set to discuss the phase one trade deal on August 15. This is a standard 6-month review of the deal signed in February, but risk markets are looking at any willingness talk between both countries as a positive given the recent escalation of tensions. The ADP employment report showed a much smaller gain in private payrolls than expected in July (+167k vs. 1.2mm expected), but the prior month was revised higher by nearly 2 million jobs. Mortgage application activity fell for the second consecutive week according to the Mortgage Bankers Association survey. Overall, applications were down 5.1% for the week ended July 31, including a 6.8% decline in refinance activity and 1.8% decline in new purchase activity.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
8/3/20	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	51.3	50.9	51.3	—
8/3/20	ISM Manufacturing	53.6	54.2	52.6	—
8/3/20	ISM New Orders	55.1	61.5	56.4	—
8/3/20	ISM Prices Paid	52	53.2	51.3	—
8/3/20	ISM Employment	—	44.3	42.1	—
8/3/20	Construction Spending MoM	1.00%	-0.70%	-2.10%	-1.70%
8/3/20	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	14.00m	14.52m	13.05m	—
8/4/20	Factory Orders	5.00%	6.20%	8.00%	7.70%
8/4/20	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	4.40%	2.60%	—
8/4/20	Durable Goods Orders	7.30%	7.60%	7.30%	—
8/4/20	Durables Ex Transportation	3.30%	3.60%	3.30%	—
8/4/20	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	—	3.40%	3.30%	—
8/4/20	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	3.30%	3.40%	—
8/5/20	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-5.10%	-0.80%	—
8/5/20	ADP Employment Change	1200k	167k	2369k	4314k
8/5/20	Trade Balance	-$50.2b	-$50.7b	-$54.6b	-$54.8b
8/5/20	Markit US Services PMI	49.6	—	49.6	—
8/5/20	Markit US Composite PMI	—	—	50	—
8/5/20	ISM Services Index	55	—	57.1	—
8/6/20	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	—	305.50%	—
8/6/20	Initial Jobless Claims	1400k	—	1434k	—
8/6/20	Continuing Claims	16900k	—	17018k	—
8/6/20	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	44.3	—
8/7/20	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	—	—
8/7/20	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	1500k	—	4800k	—
8/7/20	Change in Private Payrolls	1500k	—	4767k	—
8/7/20	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	280k	—	356k	—
8/7/20	Unemployment Rate	10.50%	—	11.10%	—
8/7/20	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.4	—	34.5	—
8/7/20	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	4.20%	—	5.00%	—
8/7/20	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	-0.50%	—	-1.20%	—
8/7/20	Labor Force Participation Rate	61.80%	—	61.50%	—
8/7/20	Underemployment Rate	—	—	18.00%	—
8/7/20	Wholesale Inventories MoM	-2.00%	—	-2.00%	—
8/7/20	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	—	—	5.40%	—
8/7/20	Consumer Credit	$10.000b	—	-$18.280b	—

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