August 5, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are higher and steeper on hopes that Congress will be able to pass at least a partial relief package this week. Also adding to the positive risk tone this morning, U.S. and Chinese officials are set to discuss the phase one trade deal on August 15. This is a standard 6-month review of the deal signed in February, but risk markets are looking at any willingness talk between both countries as a positive given the recent escalation of tensions. The ADP employment report showed a much smaller gain in private payrolls than expected in July (+167k vs. 1.2mm expected), but the prior month was revised higher by nearly 2 million jobs. Mortgage application activity fell for the second consecutive week according to the Mortgage Bankers Association survey. Overall, applications were down 5.1% for the week ended July 31, including a 6.8% decline in refinance activity and 1.8% decline in new purchase activity.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
8/3/20	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	51.3	50.9	51.3	—
8/3/20	ISM Manufacturing	53.6	54.2	52.6	—
8/3/20	ISM New Orders	55.1	61.5	56.4	—
8/3/20	ISM Prices Paid	52	53.2	51.3	—
8/3/20	ISM Employment	—	44.3	42.1	—
8/3/20	Construction Spending MoM	1.00%	-0.70%	-2.10%	-1.70%
8/3/20	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	14.00m	14.52m	13.05m	—
8/4/20	Factory Orders	5.00%	6.20%	8.00%	7.70%
8/4/20	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	4.40%	2.60%	—
8/4/20	Durable Goods Orders	7.30%	7.60%	7.30%	—
8/4/20	Durables Ex Transportation	3.30%	3.60%	3.30%	—
8/4/20	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	—	3.40%	3.30%	—
8/4/20	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	3.30%	3.40%	—
8/5/20	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-5.10%	-0.80%	—
8/5/20	ADP Employment Change	1200k	167k	2369k	4314k
8/5/20	Trade Balance	-$50.2b	-$50.7b	-$54.6b	-$54.8b
8/5/20	Markit US Services PMI	49.6	—	49.6	—
8/5/20	Markit US Composite PMI	—	—	50	—
8/5/20	ISM Services Index	55	—	57.1	—
8/6/20	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	—	305.50%	—
8/6/20	Initial Jobless Claims	1400k	—	1434k	—
8/6/20	Continuing Claims	16900k	—	17018k	—
8/6/20	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	44.3	—
8/7/20	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	—	—
8/7/20	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	1500k	—	4800k	—
8/7/20	Change in Private Payrolls	1500k	—	4767k	—
8/7/20	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	280k	—	356k	—
8/7/20	Unemployment Rate	10.50%	—	11.10%	—
8/7/20	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.4	—	34.5	—
8/7/20	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	4.20%	—	5.00%	—
8/7/20	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	-0.50%	—	-1.20%	—
8/7/20	Labor Force Participation Rate	61.80%	—	61.50%	—
8/7/20	Underemployment Rate	—	—	18.00%	—
8/7/20	Wholesale Inventories MoM	-2.00%	—	-2.00%	—
8/7/20	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	—	—	5.40%	—
8/7/20	Consumer Credit	$10.000b	—	-$18.280b	—

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

October 20, 2020 Headlines October 20, 2020
October 19, 2020 Headlines October 19, 2020
October 16, 2020 Headlines October 16, 2020

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.