Treasury yields are higher and steeper on hopes that Congress will be able to pass at least a partial relief package this week. Also adding to the positive risk tone this morning, U.S. and Chinese officials are set to discuss the phase one trade deal on August 15. This is a standard 6-month review of the deal signed in February, but risk markets are looking at any willingness talk between both countries as a positive given the recent escalation of tensions. The ADP employment report showed a much smaller gain in private payrolls than expected in July (+167k vs. 1.2mm expected), but the prior month was revised higher by nearly 2 million jobs. Mortgage application activity fell for the second consecutive week according to the Mortgage Bankers Association survey. Overall, applications were down 5.1% for the week ended July 31, including a 6.8% decline in refinance activity and 1.8% decline in new purchase activity.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 8/3/20 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 51.3 | 50.9 | 51.3 | — |
| 8/3/20 | ISM Manufacturing | 53.6 | 54.2 | 52.6 | — |
| 8/3/20 | ISM New Orders | 55.1 | 61.5 | 56.4 | — |
| 8/3/20 | ISM Prices Paid | 52 | 53.2 | 51.3 | — |
| 8/3/20 | ISM Employment | — | 44.3 | 42.1 | — |
| 8/3/20 | Construction Spending MoM | 1.00% | -0.70% | -2.10% | -1.70% |
| 8/3/20 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 14.00m | 14.52m | 13.05m | — |
| 8/4/20 | Factory Orders | 5.00% | 6.20% | 8.00% | 7.70% |
| 8/4/20 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | 4.40% | 2.60% | — |
| 8/4/20 | Durable Goods Orders | 7.30% | 7.60% | 7.30% | — |
| 8/4/20 | Durables Ex Transportation | 3.30% | 3.60% | 3.30% | — |
| 8/4/20 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | 3.40% | 3.30% | — |
| 8/4/20 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | 3.30% | 3.40% | — |
| 8/5/20 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -5.10% | -0.80% | — |
| 8/5/20 | ADP Employment Change | 1200k | 167k | 2369k | 4314k |
| 8/5/20 | Trade Balance | -$50.2b | -$50.7b | -$54.6b | -$54.8b |
| 8/5/20 | Markit US Services PMI | 49.6 | — | 49.6 | — |
| 8/5/20 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 50 | — |
| 8/5/20 | ISM Services Index | 55 | — | 57.1 | — |
| 8/6/20 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 305.50% | — |
| 8/6/20 | Initial Jobless Claims | 1400k | — | 1434k | — |
| 8/6/20 | Continuing Claims | 16900k | — | 17018k | — |
| 8/6/20 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 44.3 | — |
| 8/7/20 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | — | — |
| 8/7/20 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 1500k | — | 4800k | — |
| 8/7/20 | Change in Private Payrolls | 1500k | — | 4767k | — |
| 8/7/20 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 280k | — | 356k | — |
| 8/7/20 | Unemployment Rate | 10.50% | — | 11.10% | — |
| 8/7/20 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.4 | — | 34.5 | — |
| 8/7/20 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.20% | — | 5.00% | — |
| 8/7/20 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | -0.50% | — | -1.20% | — |
| 8/7/20 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 61.80% | — | 61.50% | — |
| 8/7/20 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 18.00% | — |
| 8/7/20 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | -2.00% | — | -2.00% | — |
| 8/7/20 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 5.40% | — |
| 8/7/20 | Consumer Credit | $10.000b | — | -$18.280b | — |
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