August 5, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are higher and steeper on hopes that Congress will be able to pass at least a partial relief package this week. Also adding to the positive risk tone this morning, U.S. and Chinese officials are set to discuss the phase one trade deal on August 15. This is a standard 6-month review of the deal signed in February, but risk markets are looking at any willingness talk between both countries as a positive given the recent escalation of tensions. The ADP employment report showed a much smaller gain in private payrolls than expected in July (+167k vs. 1.2mm expected), but the prior month was revised higher by nearly 2 million jobs. Mortgage application activity fell for the second consecutive week according to the Mortgage Bankers Association survey. Overall, applications were down 5.1% for the week ended July 31, including a 6.8% decline in refinance activity and 1.8% decline in new purchase activity.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

8/3/20Markit US Manufacturing PMI51.350.951.3
8/3/20ISM Manufacturing53.654.252.6
8/3/20ISM New Orders55.161.556.4
8/3/20ISM Prices Paid5253.251.3
8/3/20ISM Employment44.342.1
8/3/20Construction Spending MoM1.00%-0.70%-2.10%-1.70%
8/3/20Wards Total Vehicle Sales14.00m14.52m13.05m
8/4/20Factory Orders5.00%6.20%8.00%7.70%
8/4/20Factory Orders Ex Trans4.40%2.60%
8/4/20Durable Goods Orders7.30%7.60%7.30%
8/4/20Durables Ex Transportation3.30%3.60%3.30%
8/4/20Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air3.40%3.30%
8/4/20Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air3.30%3.40%
8/5/20MBA Mortgage Applications-5.10%-0.80%
8/5/20ADP Employment Change1200k167k2369k4314k
8/5/20Trade Balance-$50.2b-$50.7b-$54.6b-$54.8b
8/5/20Markit US Services PMI49.649.6
8/5/20Markit US Composite PMI50
8/5/20ISM Services Index5557.1
8/6/20Challenger Job Cuts YoY305.50%
8/6/20Initial Jobless Claims1400k1434k
8/6/20Continuing Claims16900k17018k
8/6/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort44.3
8/7/20Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
8/7/20Change in Nonfarm Payrolls1500k4800k
8/7/20Change in Private Payrolls1500k4767k
8/7/20Change in Manufact. Payrolls280k356k
8/7/20Unemployment Rate10.50%11.10%
8/7/20Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.434.5
8/7/20Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.20%5.00%
8/7/20Average Hourly Earnings MoM-0.50%-1.20%
8/7/20Labor Force Participation Rate61.80%61.50%
8/7/20Underemployment Rate18.00%
8/7/20Wholesale Inventories MoM-2.00%-2.00%
8/7/20Wholesale Trade Sales MoM5.40%
8/7/20Consumer Credit$10.000b-$18.280b


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