Treasury yields are incrementally higher, particularly in the belly of the curve, in a follow-up to yesterday’s trading following statements from Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida. In a relatively hawkish statement yesterday morning, he discussed asset purchase tapering and the first rate hike. Mr. Clarida is a Fed governor and core FOMC member, so his comments carry more weight than the typical regional Fed bank president, but to be fair, nothing he said yesterday was materially different than what was conveyed at the July FOMC meeting. He effectively reiterated that a tapering announcement is on the table for any of the remaining 2021 meetings, and he clearly stated his opinion that the conditions for rate lift-off will be met by late 2022, potentially setting the stage for a 2023 rate hike under the Fed’s flexible average inflation targeting framework (FAIT).
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
08/02/21 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 63.1 | 63.4 | 63.1 | — |
08/02/21 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.40% | 0.10% | -0.30% | -0.20% |
08/02/21 | ISM Manufacturing | 61 | 59.5 | 60.6 | — |
08/02/21 | ISM Prices Paid | 89 | 85.7 | 92.1 | — |
08/02/21 | ISM New Orders | 64.2 | 64.9 | 66 | — |
08/02/21 | ISM Employment | 51.7 | 52.9 | 49.9 | — |
08/03/21 | Factory Orders | 1.00% | 1.50% | 1.70% | 2.30% |
08/03/21 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | 1.40% | 0.70% | 1.00% |
08/03/21 | Durable Goods Orders | 0.80% | 0.90% | 0.80% | — |
08/03/21 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.30% | 0.50% | 0.30% | — |
08/03/21 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | 0.70% | 0.50% | — |
08/03/21 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | 0.60% | 0.60% | — |
08/03/21 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 15.10m | 14.75m | 15.36m | — |
08/04/21 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -1.70% | 5.70% | 7.00% |
08/04/21 | ADP Employment Change | 690k | 330k | 692k | 680k |
08/04/21 | Markit US Services PMI | 59.8 | 59.9 | 59.8 | — |
08/04/21 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 59.9 | 59.7 | — |
08/04/21 | ISM Services Index | 60.5 | 64.1 | 60.1 | — |
08/05/21 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | -92.80% | -88.00% | — |
08/05/21 | Trade Balance | -$74.2b | -$75.7b | -$71.2b | -$71.0b |
08/05/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 383k | 385k | 400k | 399k |
08/05/21 | Continuing Claims | 3255k | 2930k | 3269k | 3296k |
08/05/21 | Langer Consumer Comfort | — | — | 53.2 | — |
08/06/21 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | — | — |
08/06/21 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 870k | — | 850k | — |
08/06/21 | Change in Private Payrolls | 709k | — | 662k | — |
08/06/21 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 28k | — | 15k | — |
08/06/21 | Unemployment Rate | 5.70% | — | 5.90% | — |
08/06/21 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
08/06/21 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.90% | — | 3.60% | — |
08/06/21 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.7 | — | 34.7 | — |
08/06/21 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 61.80% | — | 61.60% | — |
08/06/21 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 9.80% | — |
08/06/21 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 0.80% | — |
08/06/21 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.80% | — | 0.80% | — |
08/06/21 | Consumer Credit | $23.000b | — | $35.281b | — |
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