August 5, 2021 Headlines

Treasury yields are incrementally higher, particularly in the belly of the curve, in a follow-up to yesterday’s trading following statements from Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida. In a relatively hawkish statement yesterday morning, he discussed asset purchase tapering and the first rate hike. Mr. Clarida is a Fed governor and core FOMC member, so his comments carry more weight than the typical regional Fed bank president, but to be fair, nothing he said yesterday was materially different than what was conveyed at the July FOMC meeting. He effectively reiterated that a tapering announcement is on the table for any of the remaining 2021 meetings, and he clearly stated his opinion that the conditions for rate lift-off will be met by late 2022, potentially setting the stage for a 2023 rate hike under the Fed’s flexible average inflation targeting framework (FAIT).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
08/02/21	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	63.1	63.4	63.1	—
08/02/21	Construction Spending MoM	0.40%	0.10%	-0.30%	-0.20%
08/02/21	ISM Manufacturing	61	59.5	60.6	—
08/02/21	ISM Prices Paid	89	85.7	92.1	—
08/02/21	ISM New Orders	64.2	64.9	66	—
08/02/21	ISM Employment	51.7	52.9	49.9	—
08/03/21	Factory Orders	1.00%	1.50%	1.70%	2.30%
08/03/21	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	1.40%	0.70%	1.00%
08/03/21	Durable Goods Orders	0.80%	0.90%	0.80%	—
08/03/21	Durables Ex Transportation	0.30%	0.50%	0.30%	—
08/03/21	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	—	0.70%	0.50%	—
08/03/21	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	0.60%	0.60%	—
08/03/21	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	15.10m	14.75m	15.36m	—
08/04/21	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-1.70%	5.70%	7.00%
08/04/21	ADP Employment Change	690k	330k	692k	680k
08/04/21	Markit US Services PMI	59.8	59.9	59.8	—
08/04/21	Markit US Composite PMI	—	59.9	59.7	—
08/04/21	ISM Services Index	60.5	64.1	60.1	—
08/05/21	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	-92.80%	-88.00%	—
08/05/21	Trade Balance	-$74.2b	-$75.7b	-$71.2b	-$71.0b
08/05/21	Initial Jobless Claims	383k	385k	400k	399k
08/05/21	Continuing Claims	3255k	2930k	3269k	3296k
08/05/21	Langer Consumer Comfort	—	—	53.2	—
08/06/21	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	—	—
08/06/21	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	870k	—	850k	—
08/06/21	Change in Private Payrolls	709k	—	662k	—
08/06/21	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	28k	—	15k	—
08/06/21	Unemployment Rate	5.70%	—	5.90%	—
08/06/21	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.30%	—	0.30%	—
08/06/21	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	3.90%	—	3.60%	—
08/06/21	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.7	—	34.7	—
08/06/21	Labor Force Participation Rate	61.80%	—	61.60%	—
08/06/21	Underemployment Rate	—	—	9.80%	—
08/06/21	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	—	—	0.80%	—
08/06/21	Wholesale Inventories MoM	0.80%	—	0.80%	—
08/06/21	Consumer Credit	$23.000b	—	$35.281b	—

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