August 5, 2021 Headlines

Treasury yields are incrementally higher, particularly in the belly of the curve, in a follow-up to yesterday’s trading following statements from Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida. In a relatively hawkish statement yesterday morning, he discussed asset purchase tapering and the first rate hike. Mr. Clarida is a Fed governor and core FOMC member, so his comments carry more weight than the typical regional Fed bank president, but to be fair, nothing he said yesterday was materially different than what was conveyed at the July FOMC meeting. He effectively reiterated that a tapering announcement is on the table for any of the remaining 2021 meetings, and he clearly stated his opinion that the conditions for rate lift-off will be met by late 2022, potentially setting the stage for a 2023 rate hike under the Fed’s flexible average inflation targeting framework (FAIT).   

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
08/02/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI63.163.463.1
08/02/21Construction Spending MoM0.40%0.10%-0.30%-0.20%
08/02/21ISM Manufacturing6159.560.6
08/02/21ISM Prices Paid8985.792.1
08/02/21ISM New Orders64.264.966
08/02/21ISM Employment51.752.949.9
08/03/21Factory Orders1.00%1.50%1.70%2.30%
08/03/21Factory Orders Ex Trans1.40%0.70%1.00%
08/03/21Durable Goods Orders0.80%0.90%0.80%
08/03/21Durables Ex Transportation0.30%0.50%0.30%
08/03/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.70%0.50%
08/03/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.60%0.60%
08/03/21Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.10m14.75m15.36m
08/04/21MBA Mortgage Applications-1.70%5.70%7.00%
08/04/21ADP Employment Change690k330k692k680k
08/04/21Markit US Services PMI59.859.959.8
08/04/21Markit US Composite PMI59.959.7
08/04/21ISM Services Index60.564.160.1
08/05/21Challenger Job Cuts YoY-92.80%-88.00%
08/05/21Trade Balance-$74.2b-$75.7b-$71.2b-$71.0b
08/05/21Initial Jobless Claims383k385k400k399k
08/05/21Continuing Claims3255k2930k3269k3296k
08/05/21Langer Consumer Comfort53.2
08/06/21Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
08/06/21Change in Nonfarm Payrolls870k850k
08/06/21Change in Private Payrolls709k662k
08/06/21Change in Manufact. Payrolls28k15k
08/06/21Unemployment Rate5.70%5.90%
08/06/21Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.30%
08/06/21Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.90%3.60%
08/06/21Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.734.7
08/06/21Labor Force Participation Rate61.80%61.60%
08/06/21Underemployment Rate9.80%
08/06/21Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.80%
08/06/21Wholesale Inventories MoM0.80%0.80%
08/06/21Consumer Credit$23.000b$35.281b

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