August 7, 2020 Headlines

The overnight session initially started with a risk-off tone after President Trump issued executive orders against TikTok and WeChat due to national security concerns. In 45-days, US residents will be prohibited from doing business with both Chinese-owned apps. The 30-year yield reached a low of 1.17% but has since reversed course as July’s jobs report showed stronger than expected hiring. Non-farm payrolls increased by 1.7mm which beat consensus estimates of 1.48mm and saw the unemployment rate decline to 10.2% (11.1% in June). However, the positive unemployment rate was aided by an unexpected decline in the participation rate of 61.4%. While the past two payroll reports have shown positive signs of a recovery, unemployment levels remain alarming and the focus has shifted once again to fiscal policy measure that have stalled in Congress.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
8/3/20	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	51.3	50.9	51.3	—
8/3/20	ISM Manufacturing	53.6	54.2	52.6	—
8/3/20	ISM New Orders	55.1	61.5	56.4	—
8/3/20	ISM Prices Paid	52	53.2	51.3	—
8/3/20	ISM Employment	—	44.3	42.1	—
8/3/20	Construction Spending MoM	1.00%	-0.70%	-2.10%	-1.70%
8/3/20	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	14.00m	14.52m	13.05m	—
8/4/20	Factory Orders	5.00%	6.20%	8.00%	7.70%
8/4/20	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	4.40%	2.60%	—
8/4/20	Durable Goods Orders	7.30%	7.60%	7.30%	—
8/4/20	Durables Ex Transportation	3.30%	3.60%	3.30%	—
8/4/20	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	—	3.40%	3.30%	—
8/4/20	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	3.30%	3.40%	—
8/5/20	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-5.10%	-0.80%	—
8/5/20	ADP Employment Change	1200k	167k	2369k	4314k
8/5/20	Trade Balance	-$50.2b	-$50.7b	-$54.6b	-$54.8b
8/5/20	Markit US Services PMI	49.6	50	49.6	—
8/5/20	Markit US Composite PMI	—	50.3	50	—
8/5/20	ISM Services Index	55	58.1	57.1	—
8/6/20	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	576.10%	305.50%	—
8/6/20	Initial Jobless Claims	1400k	1186k	1434k	1435k
8/6/20	Continuing Claims	16900k	16107k	17018k	16951k
8/6/20	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	44.9	44.3	—
8/7/20	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	1480k	1763k	4800k	4791k
8/7/20	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	17k	—	—
8/7/20	Change in Private Payrolls	1200k	1462k	4767k	4737k
8/7/20	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	255k	26k	356k	357k
8/7/20	Unemployment Rate	10.60%	10.20%	11.10%	—
8/7/20	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	-0.50%	0.20%	-1.20%	-1.30%
8/7/20	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	4.20%	4.80%	5.00%	4.90%
8/7/20	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.4	34.5	34.5	34.6
8/7/20	Labor Force Participation Rate	61.80%	61.40%	61.50%	—
8/7/20	Underemployment Rate	—	16.50%	18.00%	—
8/7/20	Wholesale Inventories MoM	-2.00%	—	-2.00%	—
8/7/20	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	5.00%	—	5.40%	—
8/7/20	Consumer Credit	$10.000b	—	-$18.280b	—

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

September 17, 2021 Headlines September 17, 2021
September 16, 2021 Headlines September 16, 2021
September 15, 2021 Headlines September 15, 2021

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.