The overnight session initially started with a risk-off tone after President Trump issued executive orders against TikTok and WeChat due to national security concerns. In 45-days, US residents will be prohibited from doing business with both Chinese-owned apps. The 30-year yield reached a low of 1.17% but has since reversed course as July’s jobs report showed stronger than expected hiring. Non-farm payrolls increased by 1.7mm which beat consensus estimates of 1.48mm and saw the unemployment rate decline to 10.2% (11.1% in June). However, the positive unemployment rate was aided by an unexpected decline in the participation rate of 61.4%. While the past two payroll reports have shown positive signs of a recovery, unemployment levels remain alarming and the focus has shifted once again to fiscal policy measure that have stalled in Congress.
Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
8/3/20 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 51.3 | 50.9 | 51.3 | — |
8/3/20 | ISM Manufacturing | 53.6 | 54.2 | 52.6 | — |
8/3/20 | ISM New Orders | 55.1 | 61.5 | 56.4 | — |
8/3/20 | ISM Prices Paid | 52 | 53.2 | 51.3 | — |
8/3/20 | ISM Employment | — | 44.3 | 42.1 | — |
8/3/20 | Construction Spending MoM | 1.00% | -0.70% | -2.10% | -1.70% |
8/3/20 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 14.00m | 14.52m | 13.05m | — |
8/4/20 | Factory Orders | 5.00% | 6.20% | 8.00% | 7.70% |
8/4/20 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | 4.40% | 2.60% | — |
8/4/20 | Durable Goods Orders | 7.30% | 7.60% | 7.30% | — |
8/4/20 | Durables Ex Transportation | 3.30% | 3.60% | 3.30% | — |
8/4/20 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | 3.40% | 3.30% | — |
8/4/20 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | 3.30% | 3.40% | — |
8/5/20 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -5.10% | -0.80% | — |
8/5/20 | ADP Employment Change | 1200k | 167k | 2369k | 4314k |
8/5/20 | Trade Balance | -$50.2b | -$50.7b | -$54.6b | -$54.8b |
8/5/20 | Markit US Services PMI | 49.6 | 50 | 49.6 | — |
8/5/20 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 50.3 | 50 | — |
8/5/20 | ISM Services Index | 55 | 58.1 | 57.1 | — |
8/6/20 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | 576.10% | 305.50% | — |
8/6/20 | Initial Jobless Claims | 1400k | 1186k | 1434k | 1435k |
8/6/20 | Continuing Claims | 16900k | 16107k | 17018k | 16951k |
8/6/20 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 44.9 | 44.3 | — |
8/7/20 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 1480k | 1763k | 4800k | 4791k |
8/7/20 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | 17k | — | — |
8/7/20 | Change in Private Payrolls | 1200k | 1462k | 4767k | 4737k |
8/7/20 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 255k | 26k | 356k | 357k |
8/7/20 | Unemployment Rate | 10.60% | 10.20% | 11.10% | — |
8/7/20 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | -0.50% | 0.20% | -1.20% | -1.30% |
8/7/20 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.20% | 4.80% | 5.00% | 4.90% |
8/7/20 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.4 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.6 |
8/7/20 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 61.80% | 61.40% | 61.50% | — |
8/7/20 | Underemployment Rate | — | 16.50% | 18.00% | — |
8/7/20 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | -2.00% | — | -2.00% | — |
8/7/20 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 5.00% | — | 5.40% | — |
8/7/20 | Consumer Credit | $10.000b | — | -$18.280b | — |
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