August 7, 2020 Headlines

The overnight session initially started with a risk-off tone after President Trump issued executive orders against TikTok and WeChat due to national security concerns. In 45-days, US residents will be prohibited from doing business with both Chinese-owned apps. The 30-year yield reached a low of 1.17% but has since reversed course as July’s jobs report showed stronger than expected hiring. Non-farm payrolls increased by 1.7mm which beat consensus estimates of 1.48mm and saw the unemployment rate decline to 10.2% (11.1% in June). However, the positive unemployment rate was aided by an unexpected decline in the participation rate of 61.4%. While the past two payroll reports have shown positive signs of a recovery, unemployment levels remain alarming and the focus has shifted once again to fiscal policy measure that have stalled in Congress.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
8/3/20	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	51.3	50.9	51.3	—
8/3/20	ISM Manufacturing	53.6	54.2	52.6	—
8/3/20	ISM New Orders	55.1	61.5	56.4	—
8/3/20	ISM Prices Paid	52	53.2	51.3	—
8/3/20	ISM Employment	—	44.3	42.1	—
8/3/20	Construction Spending MoM	1.00%	-0.70%	-2.10%	-1.70%
8/3/20	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	14.00m	14.52m	13.05m	—
8/4/20	Factory Orders	5.00%	6.20%	8.00%	7.70%
8/4/20	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	4.40%	2.60%	—
8/4/20	Durable Goods Orders	7.30%	7.60%	7.30%	—
8/4/20	Durables Ex Transportation	3.30%	3.60%	3.30%	—
8/4/20	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	—	3.40%	3.30%	—
8/4/20	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	3.30%	3.40%	—
8/5/20	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-5.10%	-0.80%	—
8/5/20	ADP Employment Change	1200k	167k	2369k	4314k
8/5/20	Trade Balance	-$50.2b	-$50.7b	-$54.6b	-$54.8b
8/5/20	Markit US Services PMI	49.6	50	49.6	—
8/5/20	Markit US Composite PMI	—	50.3	50	—
8/5/20	ISM Services Index	55	58.1	57.1	—
8/6/20	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	576.10%	305.50%	—
8/6/20	Initial Jobless Claims	1400k	1186k	1434k	1435k
8/6/20	Continuing Claims	16900k	16107k	17018k	16951k
8/6/20	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	44.9	44.3	—
8/7/20	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	1480k	1763k	4800k	4791k
8/7/20	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	17k	—	—
8/7/20	Change in Private Payrolls	1200k	1462k	4767k	4737k
8/7/20	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	255k	26k	356k	357k
8/7/20	Unemployment Rate	10.60%	10.20%	11.10%	—
8/7/20	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	-0.50%	0.20%	-1.20%	-1.30%
8/7/20	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	4.20%	4.80%	5.00%	4.90%
8/7/20	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.4	34.5	34.5	34.6
8/7/20	Labor Force Participation Rate	61.80%	61.40%	61.50%	—
8/7/20	Underemployment Rate	—	16.50%	18.00%	—
8/7/20	Wholesale Inventories MoM	-2.00%	—	-2.00%	—
8/7/20	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	5.00%	—	5.40%	—
8/7/20	Consumer Credit	$10.000b	—	-$18.280b	—

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