August 7, 2020 Headlines

The overnight session initially started with a risk-off tone after President Trump issued executive orders against TikTok and WeChat due to national security concerns. In 45-days, US residents will be prohibited from doing business with both Chinese-owned apps. The 30-year yield reached a low of 1.17% but has since reversed course as July’s jobs report showed stronger than expected hiring. Non-farm payrolls increased by 1.7mm which beat consensus estimates of 1.48mm and saw the unemployment rate decline to 10.2% (11.1% in June). However, the positive unemployment rate was aided by an unexpected decline in the participation rate of 61.4%. While the past two payroll reports have shown positive signs of a recovery, unemployment levels remain alarming and the focus has shifted once again to fiscal policy measure that have stalled in Congress.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
8/3/20Markit US Manufacturing PMI51.350.951.3
8/3/20ISM Manufacturing53.654.252.6
8/3/20ISM New Orders55.161.556.4
8/3/20ISM Prices Paid5253.251.3
8/3/20ISM Employment44.342.1
8/3/20Construction Spending MoM1.00%-0.70%-2.10%-1.70%
8/3/20Wards Total Vehicle Sales14.00m14.52m13.05m
8/4/20Factory Orders5.00%6.20%8.00%7.70%
8/4/20Factory Orders Ex Trans4.40%2.60%
8/4/20Durable Goods Orders7.30%7.60%7.30%
8/4/20Durables Ex Transportation3.30%3.60%3.30%
8/4/20Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air3.40%3.30%
8/4/20Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air3.30%3.40%
8/5/20MBA Mortgage Applications-5.10%-0.80%
8/5/20ADP Employment Change1200k167k2369k4314k
8/5/20Trade Balance-$50.2b-$50.7b-$54.6b-$54.8b
8/5/20Markit US Services PMI49.65049.6
8/5/20Markit US Composite PMI50.350
8/5/20ISM Services Index5558.157.1
8/6/20Challenger Job Cuts YoY576.10%305.50%
8/6/20Initial Jobless Claims1400k1186k1434k1435k
8/6/20Continuing Claims16900k16107k17018k16951k
8/6/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort44.944.3
8/7/20Change in Nonfarm Payrolls1480k1763k4800k4791k
8/7/20Two-Month Payroll Net Revision17k
8/7/20Change in Private Payrolls1200k1462k4767k4737k
8/7/20Change in Manufact. Payrolls255k26k356k357k
8/7/20Unemployment Rate10.60%10.20%11.10%
8/7/20Average Hourly Earnings MoM-0.50%0.20%-1.20%-1.30%
8/7/20Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.20%4.80%5.00%4.90%
8/7/20Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.434.534.534.6
8/7/20Labor Force Participation Rate61.80%61.40%61.50%
8/7/20Underemployment Rate16.50%18.00%
8/7/20Wholesale Inventories MoM-2.00%-2.00%
8/7/20Wholesale Trade Sales MoM5.00%5.40%
8/7/20Consumer Credit$10.000b-$18.280b

 

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