Treasuries sold off modestly in the overnight session as a risk-on trade took hold during London trading. Equity markets moved higher while commodities were mixed. In the US, July non-farm payrolls increased 209,000 coming in higher than the expected 180,000; while the unemployment rate dipped down to 4.3%, the lowest level in 16 years. Additionally, the data revealed a 0.3% month over month increase in wages and 2.5% increase year over year. Overall, the jobs report was a very solid one, the change in payrolls highlights the continued strength of the labor market and the increase in wages gives market participants hope that households will have more money to spend and thus push inflation higher. The strength of the report should give Fed officials confidence in continuing on its path to normalize its balance sheet.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Indicators

DateTimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
07/31/201709:45Chicago Purchasing ManagerJul6058.965.7
07/31/201710:00Pending Home Sales MoMJun1.00%1.50%-0.80%-0.70%
07/31/201710:00Pending Home Sales NSA YoYJun0.70%0.50%0.70%
07/31/201710:30Dallas Fed Manf. ActivityJul1316.815
08/01/201708:30Personal IncomeJun0.40%0.00%0.40%0.30%
08/01/201708:30Personal SpendingJun0.10%0.10%0.10%0.20%
08/01/201708:30Real Personal SpendingJun0.10%0.00%0.10%0.20%
08/01/201708:30PCE Deflator MoMJun0.00%0.00%-0.10%0.00%
08/01/201708:30PCE Deflator YoYJun1.30%1.40%1.40%1.50%
08/01/201708:30PCE Core MoMJun0.10%0.10%0.10%
08/01/201708:30PCE Core YoYJun1.40%1.50%1.40%1.50%
08/01/201709:45Markit US Manufacturing PMIJul F53.253.353.2
08/01/201710:00ISM ManufacturingJul56.556.357.8
08/01/201710:00ISM Prices PaidJul55.86255
08/01/201710:00ISM New OrdersJul60.463.5
08/01/201710:00ISM EmploymentJul55.257.2
08/01/201710:00Construction Spending MoMJun0.40%-1.30%0.00%0.30%
08/01/2017Wards Total Vehicle SalesJul16.80m16.69m16.41m16.59m
08/01/2017Wards Domestic Vehicle SalesJul13.10m12.96m12.79m12.96m
08/02/201707:00MBA Mortgage Applications28-Jul-2.80%0.40%
08/02/201708:15ADP Employment ChangeJul190k178k158k191k
08/03/201707:30Challenger Job Cuts YoYJul-37.60%-19.30%
08/03/201708:30Initial Jobless Claims29-Jul243k240k244k245k
08/03/201708:30Continuing Claims22-Jul1958k1968k1964k1965k
08/03/201709:45Bloomberg Consumer Comfort30-Jul49.648.6
08/03/201709:45Markit US Services PMIJul F54.254.754.2
08/03/201709:45Markit US Composite PMIJul F54.654.2
08/03/201710:00ISM Non-Manf. CompositeJul56.953.957.4
08/03/201710:00Factory OrdersJun3.00%3.00%-0.80%-0.30%
08/03/201710:00Factory Orders Ex TransJun-0.20%-0.30%-0.10%
08/03/201710:00Durable Goods OrdersJun F0.00%6.40%6.50%
08/03/201710:00Durables Ex TransportationJun F0.10%0.20%
08/03/201710:00Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex AirJun F0.00%-0.10%
08/03/201710:00Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex AirJun F0.10%0.20%
08/04/201708:30Change in Nonfarm PayrollsJul180k209k222k231k
08/04/201708:30Two-Month Payroll Net RevisionJul2k
08/04/201708:30Change in Private PayrollsJul180k205k187k194k
08/04/201708:30Change in Manufact. PayrollsJul5k16k1k12k
08/04/201708:30Unemployment RateJul4.30%4.30%4.40%
08/04/201708:30Average Hourly Earnings MoMJul0.30%0.30%0.20%
08/04/201708:30Average Hourly Earnings YoYJul2.40%2.50%2.50%
08/04/201708:30Average Weekly Hours All EmployeesJul34.534.534.5
08/04/201708:30Labor Force Participation RateJul62.90%62.80%
08/04/201708:30Underemployment RateJul8.60%8.60%
08/04/201708:30Trade BalanceJun-$44.5b-$43.6b-$46.5b-$46.4b