Treasury prices are grinding higher again this morning with ongoing tensions with North Korea and another weak inflation report driving activity. Global equity indexes are in the red again today, albeit modestly, and S&P 500 futures are currently down 12 points.  U.S. allies South Korea and Japan warned North Korea overnight that the country would face a strong response if it indeed moved forward with launching missiles toward the vicinity of Guam.  A surprise decline in PPI (measures wholesale price inflation) is also catching the attention of market participants this morning, particularly given the focus on the consumer inflation trend in recent months.  Both the headline and core measures fell 0.1% m/m in July, and on a year-over-year basis, both measures were down from June levels and 30 bps below expectations.  The July CPI report will be released in the morning.  New York Fed President Bill Dudley will be holding a press conference this morning to discuss regional wage inequality, and if the Fed does intend to initiate balance-sheet reduction in September, it wouldn’t be surprising for Dudley to relay strong hints to that regard.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Indicators

DateTimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
08/07/201715:00Consumer CreditJun$15.750b$12.397b$18.410b$18.285b
08/08/201706:00NFIB Small Business OptimismJul103.5105.2103.6
08/08/201710:00JOLTS Job OpeningsJun5750616356665702
08/09/201707:00MBA Mortgage Applications04-Aug3.00%-2.80%
08/09/201708:30Nonfarm Productivity2Q P0.70%0.90%0.00%0.10%
08/09/201708:30Unit Labor Costs2Q P1.10%0.60%2.20%5.40%
08/09/201710:00Wholesale Inventories MoMJun F0.60%0.70%0.60%
08/09/201710:00Wholesale Trade Sales MoMJun0.00%0.70%-0.50%-0.10%
08/10/201708:30Initial Jobless Claims05-Aug240k244k240k241k
08/10/201708:30Continuing Claims29-Jul1960k1951k1968k1967k
08/10/201708:30PPI Final Demand MoMJul0.10%-0.10%0.10%
08/10/201708:30PPI Ex Food and Energy MoMJul0.20%-0.10%0.10%
08/10/201708:30PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoMJul0.20%0.00%0.20%
08/10/201708:30PPI Final Demand YoYJul2.20%1.90%2.00%
08/10/201708:30PPI Ex Food and Energy YoYJul2.10%1.80%1.90%
08/10/201708:30PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoYJul1.90%2.00%
08/10/201709:45Bloomberg Consumer Comfort06-Aug51.449.6
08/10/201714:00Monthly Budget StatementJul-$54.0b-$90.2b
08/11/201708:30CPI MoMJul0.20%0.00%
08/11/201708:30CPI Ex Food and Energy MoMJul0.20%0.10%
08/11/201708:30CPI YoYJul1.80%1.60%
08/11/201708:30CPI Ex Food and Energy YoYJul1.70%1.70%
08/11/201708:30CPI Core Index SAJul251.995251.627
08/11/201708:30CPI Index NSAJul244.925244.955
08/11/201708:30Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoYJul1.10%1.20%
08/11/201708:30Real Avg Hourly Earning YoYJul0.80%0.90%